Finex A New Workhorse Model For Macroeconomic Forecasting And Policy Analysis

Author : Mr. Andrew Berg
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 123 pages
Book Rating : 4.95/5 ( download)

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Download or read book FINEX - A New Workhorse Model for Macroeconomic Forecasting and Policy Analysis written by Mr. Andrew Berg and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-11-10 with total page 123 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a semi-structural macroeconomic model aimed at facilitating policy analysis and forecasting, primarily in countries with imperfect capital mobility and hybrid monetary policy regimes. Compared to earlier gap-trend projection models, the Forecasting Model of Internal and External Balance (FINEX) contains three main innovations: it accentuates external and internal balances; explicitly incorporates fiscal policy; and partly endogenizes the main trends. FINEX thus covers a broad set of policy instruments, including foreign exchange interventions (FXI), capital flow management measures (CFM), as well as common fiscal policy instruments. The model incorporates insights from the recent DSGE literature, while maintaining a more accessible gap-trend structure that lends itself to practical policy applications. While the paper refrains from drawing broad policy lessons, it emphasizes the model's ability to interpret recent data in terms of structural shocks and policy responses, thereby aiding policymakers in constructing coherent economic narratives and considering alternative scenarios.

Author : Victor Musa
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 66 pages
Book Rating : 4.87/5 ( download)

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Download or read book A Projection Model for Resource-rich and Dollarized Economy: The Democratic Republic of the Congo written by Victor Musa and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-06-21 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper introduces a semi-structural Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) tailored for the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), highlighting its resource richness and high degree of dollarization. We provide an overview of the model's specifications to elucidate key features of the DRC economy and present its properties, evaluating its alignment with DRC data and assessing its goodness of fit. Additionally, the paper demonstrates the QPM's practical application through a counterfactual scenario, comparing policy recommendations with the actual policy responses of the Central Bank of the Republic of Congo to observed exchange rate and inflation pressures in 2023. Beyond the QPM, the paper showcases supplementary tools that enhance its utility for generating medium-term forecasts and developiong narratives in support of monetary policymaking. Specifically, we introduce the Nowcasting and Near-Term Forecast models, designed to assess the economy in real-time and predict short-term inflationary trends.

Author : Mokhtar Benlamine
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484341813
Total Pages : 29 pages
Book Rating : 4.10/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Morocco: A Practical Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis in a Country with Capital Controls written by Mokhtar Benlamine and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-02-14 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Central Bank of Morocco has been working on developing a Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) to support a gradual move toward a more flexible exchange rate regime and the eventual adoption of a full-fledged inflation-targeting (IT) regime. At the center of the FPAS is a quarterly projection model that was tailored for two different types of exchange rate regimes. Presently, the fixed exchange rate model version is to be used during the pre-IT period, while the flexible exchange rate model version is to be used to prepare alternative scenarios for monetary policy decision makers to discuss the potential policy implications of shocks under an IT regime.

Author : Ioana Moldovan
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484376420
Total Pages : 66 pages
Book Rating : 4.23/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Managing Reductions in Aid Inflows: Assessing Policy Choices in Haiti written by Ioana Moldovan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-09-11 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A low-income country such as Haiti that confronts an environment of diminishing aid inflows must assess tradeoffs among the available policy options: spending cuts, monetization, sales of debt, or use of foreign reserves. To provide the analytical tools for this task, the paper draws from a set of DSGE models recently developed to evaluate policy choices in low-income countries for which external aid flows represent an important revenue source. Two simplified stylized variations of the main model are used to gain intuition and initially assess the trdeaoffs. Subsequenctly a full-scale small open economy DSGE model, calibrated to match conditions in Haiti and in similar low-income countries, is employed. Several key results are common to all model versions. While sales of foreign exchange reserves can compensate for the loss of aid inflows, this strategy is not sustainable. The remaining policy choices entail larger welfare costs, involving lower consumption levels and real depreciation. The results suggest that a mixture of spending cuts and depreciation is the best strategy, when use of foreign reserves is constrained.

Author : Mr.Abdul Abiad
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484361555
Total Pages : 26 pages
Book Rating : 4.59/5 ( download)

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Download or read book The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment written by Mr.Abdul Abiad and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-05-04 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides new evidence of the macroeconomic effects of public investment in advanced economies. Using public investment forecast errors to identify the causal effect of government investment in a sample of 17 OECD economies since 1985 and model simulations, the paper finds that increased public investment raises output, both in the short term and in the long term, crowds in private investment, and reduces unemployment. Several factors shape the macroeconomic effects of public investment. When there is economic slack and monetary accommodation, demand effects are stronger, and the public-debt-to-GDP ratio may actually decline. Public investment is also more effective in boosting output in countries with higher public investment efficiency and when it is financed by issuing debt.

Author : Mr.Evan C Tanner
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484300610
Total Pages : 41 pages
Book Rating : 4.19/5 ( download)

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Download or read book The Algebraic Galaxy of Simple Macroeconomic Models written by Mr.Evan C Tanner and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-05-24 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Simple macroeconomic frameworks like the IS/LM have survived because they help us conceptualize complex problems while also providing ‘back of the envelope’ estimates of macroeconomic outcomes. Herein, a bare-bones New Keynesian extension of the IS/LM model yields solutions for core macro variables (output gap, inflation, interest rate, real exchange rate misvaluation)—expressed in percent. We then extend that standard model to also generate a corresponding set of demand-side elements—expressed in currency units. A key aim of the paper is to reconcile these two metrics in ways that also aid communication and intuition—including through IS/LM-style graphs.

Author : Chandranath Amarasekara
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484364511
Total Pages : 59 pages
Book Rating : 4.12/5 ( download)

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Download or read book An Open Economy Quarterly Projection Model for Sri Lanka written by Chandranath Amarasekara and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-06-25 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study documents a semi-structural model developed for Sri Lanka. This model, extended with a fiscal sector block, is expected to serve as a core forecasting model in the process of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka’s move towards flexible inflation targeting. The model includes a forward-looking endogenous interest rate and foreign exchange rate policy rules allowing for flexible change in policy behavior. It is a gap model that allows for simultaneous identification of business cycle position and long-term equilibrium. The model was first calibrated and then its data-fit was improved using Bayesian estimation technique with relatively tight priors.

Author : Benjamin Carton
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484326016
Total Pages : 61 pages
Book Rating : 4.15/5 ( download)

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Download or read book No Business Taxation Without Model Representation written by Benjamin Carton and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-11-17 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF) is a multi-region, forward-looking, DSGE model developed at the International Monetary Fund for policy analysis and international economic research. This paper documents the incorporation of corporate income, cash-flow and destination based cash-flow taxes into the model. The analysis presented considers the transmission mechanism of these taxes and details how financial frictions interact with each of the taxes.

Author : Adrian Linacre
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118496523
Total Pages : 360 pages
Book Rating : 4.27/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Wildlife DNA Analysis written by Adrian Linacre and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-03-27 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Clearly structured throughout, the introduction highlights the different types of crime where these techniques are regularly used. This chapter includes a discussion as to who performs forensic wildlife examinations, the standardisation and validation of methods, and the role of the expert witness in this type of alleged crime. This is followed by a detailed section on the science behind DNA typing including the problems in isolating DNA from trace material and subsequent genetic analysis are also covered. The book then undertakes a comprehensive review of species testing using DNA, including a step-by-step guide to sequence comparisons. A comparison of the different markers used in species testing highlights the criteria for a genetic marker. A full set of case histories illustrates the use of the different markers used. The book details the use of genetic markers to link two or more hairs/feather/leaves/needles to the same individual organism and the software used in population assignment. The problems and possibilities in isolating markers, along with the construction of allele databases are discussed in this chapter. The book concludes with evaluation and reporting of genetic evidence in wildlife forensic science illustrated by examples of witness statements.

Author : Jeffrey A. Frankel
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 48 pages
Book Rating : 4.08/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Sterilization of Money Inflows written by Jeffrey A. Frankel and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: