Understanding Uncertainty

Author : Dennis V. Lindley
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470055472
Total Pages : 268 pages
Book Rating : 4.72/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Understanding Uncertainty written by Dennis V. Lindley and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2006-08-28 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A lively and informal introduction to the role of uncertainty and probability in people's lives from an everyday perspective From television game shows and gambling techniques to weather forecasting and the financial markets, virtually every aspect of modern life involves situations in which the outcomes are uncertain and of varying qualities. But as noted statistician Dennis Lindley writes in this distinctive text, "We want you to face up to uncertainty, not hide it away under false concepts, but to understand it and, moreover, to use the recent discoveries so that you can act in the face of uncertainty more sensibly than would have been possible without the skill." Accessibly written at an elementary level, this outstanding text examines uncertainty in various everyday situations and introduces readers to three rules--craftily laid out in the book--that prove uncertainty can be handled with as much confidence as ordinary logic. Combining a concept of utility with probability, the book insightfully demonstrates how uncertainty can be measured and used in everyday life, especially in decision-making and science. With a focus on understanding and using probability calculations, Understanding Uncertainty demystifies probability and: * Explains in straightforward detail the logic of uncertainty, its truths, and its falsehoods * Explores what has been learned in the twentieth century about uncertainty * Provides a logical, sensible method for acting in the face of uncertainty * Presents vignettes of great discoveries made in the twentieth century * Shows readers how to discern if another person--whether a lawyer, politician, scientist, or journalist--is talking sense, posing the right questions, or obtaining sound answers Requiring only a basic understanding of mathematical concepts and operations, Understanding Uncertainty is useful as a text for all students who have probability or statistics as part of their course, even at the most introductory level.

Author : Reuben R. McDaniel
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9783540237730
Total Pages : 220 pages
Book Rating : 4.39/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Uncertainty and Surprise in Complex Systems written by Reuben R. McDaniel and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2005-03-11 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Complexity science has been a source of new insight in physical and social systems and has demonstrated that unpredictability and surprise are fundamental aspects of the world around us. This book is the outcome of a discussion meeting of leading scholars and critical thinkers with expertise in complex systems sciences and leaders from a variety of organizations, sponsored by the Prigogine Center at The University of Texas at Austin and the Plexus Institute, to explore strategies for understanding uncertainty and surprise. Besides contributions to the conference, it includes a key digest by the editors as well as a commentary by the late nobel laureate Ilya Prigogine, "Surprises in half of a century". The book is intended for researchers and scientists in complexity science, as well as for a broad interdisciplinary audience of both practitioners and scholars. It will well serve those interested in the research issues and in the application of complexity science to physical and social systems.

Author : Theodore Modis
Publisher : McGraw-Hill Companies
ISBN 13 : 9780070434059
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.50/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Conquering Uncertainty written by Theodore Modis and published by McGraw-Hill Companies. This book was released on 1998 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Theorizing that business people can focus on the "big picture" by studying natural laws, this text evaluates what business leaders can and cannot do in response to the changes of "business seasons". Scientific methods are used in conjunction with the observation of natural laws to solve problems.

Author : Frank H. Knight
Publisher : Cosimo, Inc.
ISBN 13 : 1602060053
Total Pages : 401 pages
Book Rating : 4.50/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Risk, Uncertainty and Profit written by Frank H. Knight and published by Cosimo, Inc.. This book was released on 2006-11-01 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.

Author : Noel Challamel
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1786307189
Total Pages : 306 pages
Book Rating : 4.87/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Modern Trends in Structural and Solid Mechanics 3 written by Noel Challamel and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2021-06-29 with total page 306 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book – comprised of three separate volumes – presents the recent developments and research discoveries in structural and solid mechanics; it is dedicated to Professor Isaac Elishakoff. This third volume is devoted to non-deterministic mechanics. Modern Trends in Structural and Solid Mechanics 3 has broad scope, covering topics such: design optimization under uncertainty, interval field approaches, convex analysis, quantum inspired topology optimization and stochastic dynamics. The book is illustrated by many applications in the field of aerospace engineering, mechanical engineering, civil engineering, biomedical engineering and automotive engineering. This book is intended for graduate students and researchers in the field of theoretical and applied mechanics.

Author : David Spiegelhalter
Publisher : Penguin UK
ISBN 13 : 0241541085
Total Pages : 217 pages
Book Rating : 4.81/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Covid By Numbers written by David Spiegelhalter and published by Penguin UK. This book was released on 2021-10-07 with total page 217 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 'I couldn't imagine a better guidebook for making sense of a tragic and momentous time in our lives. Covid by Numbers is comprehensive yet concise, impeccably clear and always humane' Tim Harford How many people have died because of COVID-19? Which countries have been hit hardest by the virus? What are the benefits and harms of different vaccines? How does COVID-19 compare to the Spanish flu? How have the lockdown measures affected the economy, mental health and crime? This year we have been bombarded by statistics - seven day rolling averages, rates of infection, excess deaths. Never have numbers been more central to our national conversation, and never has it been more important that we think about them clearly. In the media and in their Observer column, Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter and RSS Statistical Ambassador Anthony Masters have interpreted these statistics, offering a vital public service by giving us the tools we need to make sense of the virus for ourselves and holding the government to account. In Covid by Numbers, they crunch the data on a year like no other, exposing the leading misconceptions about the virus and the vaccine, and answering our essential questions. This timely, concise and approachable book offers a rare depth of insight into one of the greatest upheavals in history, and a trustworthy guide to these most uncertain of times.

Author : Jenny Gage
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1316605892
Total Pages : 209 pages
Book Rating : 4.99/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Teaching Probability written by Jenny Gage and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2016-08-04 with total page 209 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These titles focus on the approaches that can be taken in the classroom to develop skills and a conceptual understanding of specific mathematical concepts.

Author : Dennis V. Lindley
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118650123
Total Pages : 434 pages
Book Rating : 4.27/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Understanding Uncertainty written by Dennis V. Lindley and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-12-16 with total page 434 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for the First Edition "...a reference for everyone who is interested in knowing and handling uncertainty." —Journal of Applied Statistics The critically acclaimed First Edition of Understanding Uncertainty provided a study of uncertainty addressed to scholars in all fields, showing that uncertainty could be measured by probability, and that probability obeyed three basic rules that enabled uncertainty to be handled sensibly in everyday life. These ideas were extended to embrace the scientific method and to show how decisions, containing an uncertain element, could be rationally made. Featuring new material, the Revised Edition remains the go-to guide for uncertainty and decision making, providing further applications at an accessible level including: A critical study of transitivity, a basic concept in probability A discussion of how the failure of the financial sector to use the proper approach to uncertainty may have contributed to the recent recession A consideration of betting, showing that a bookmaker's odds are not expressions of probability Applications of the book’s thesis to statistics A demonstration that some techniques currently popular in statistics, like significance tests, may be unsound, even seriously misleading, because they violate the rules of probability Understanding Uncertainty, Revised Edition is ideal for students studying probability or statistics and for anyone interested in one of the most fascinating and vibrant fields of study in contemporary science and mathematics.

Author : Helga Nowotny
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0745687652
Total Pages : 220 pages
Book Rating : 4.50/5 ( download)

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Download or read book The Cunning of Uncertainty written by Helga Nowotny and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-11-19 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is interwoven into human existence. It is a powerful incentive in the search for knowledge and an inherent component of scientific research. We have developed many ways of coping with uncertainty. We make promises, manage risks and make predictions to try to clear the mists and predict ahead. But the future is inherently uncertain - and the mist that shrouds our path an inherent part of our journey. The burning question is whether our societies can face up to uncertainty, learn to embrace it and whether we can open up to a constantly evolving future. In this new book, Helga Nowotny shows how research can thrive at the cusp of uncertainty. Science, she argues, can eventually transform uncertainty into certainty, but into certainty which remains always provisional. Uncertainty is never completely static. It is constantly evolving. It encompasses geological time scales and, at the level of human experience, split-second changes as cells divide. Life and death decisions are taken in the blink of the eye, while human interactions with the natural environment may reveal their impact over millennia. Uncertainty is cunning. It appears at unexpected moments, it shuns the straight line, takes the oblique route and sometimes the unexpected short-cut. As we acknowledge the cunning of uncertainty, its threats retreat. We accept that any scientific inquiry must produce results that are provisional and uncertain. This message is vital for politicians and policy-makers: do not be tempted by small, short-term, controllable gains to the exclusion of uncertain, high-gain opportunities. Wide-ranging in its use of examples and enriched by the author’s experience as President of the European Research Council, one of the world’s leading funding organisations for fundamental research. The Cunning of Uncertainty is a must-read for students and scholars of all disciplines, politicians, policy-makers and anyone concerned with the fundamental role of knowledge and science in our societies today.

Author : Vaughn Tan
Publisher : Columbia University Press
ISBN 13 : 0231551878
Total Pages : 296 pages
Book Rating : 4.78/5 ( download)

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Download or read book The Uncertainty Mindset written by Vaughn Tan and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2020-07-28 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Innovation is how businesses stay ahead of the competition and adapt to market conditions that change in unpredictable and uncertain ways. In the first decade of the twenty-first century, high-end cuisine underwent a profound transformation. Once an industry that prioritized consistency and reliability, it turned into one where constant change was a competitive necessity. A top restaurant’s reputation and success have become so closely bound up with its ability to innovate that a new organizational form, the culinary research and development team, has emerged. The best of these R&D teams continually expand the frontiers of food—they invent a constant stream of new dishes, new cooking processes and methods, and even new ways of experiencing food. How do they achieve this nonstop novelty? And what can culinary research and development teach us about how organizations innovate? Vaughn Tan opens up the black box of elite culinary R&D to provide essential insights. Drawing on years of unprecedented access to the best and most influential culinary R&D teams in the world, he reveals how they exemplify what he calls the uncertainty mindset. Such a mindset intentionally incorporates uncertainty into organization design rather than simply trying to reduce risk. It changes how organizations hire, set goals, and motivate team members and leads organizations to work in highly unconventional ways. A revelatory look at the R&D kitchen, The Uncertainty Mindset upends conventional wisdom about how to organize for innovation and offers practical insights for businesses trying to become innovative and adaptable.