Uncertainty In Industrial Practice

Author : Etienne de Rocquigny
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470770740
Total Pages : 364 pages
Book Rating : 4.40/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Uncertainty in Industrial Practice written by Etienne de Rocquigny and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-09-15 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Managing uncertainties in industrial systems is a daily challenge to ensure improved design, robust operation, accountable performance and responsive risk control. Authored by a leading European network of experts representing a cross section of industries, Uncertainty in Industrial Practice aims to provide a reference for the dissemination of uncertainty treatment in any type of industry. It is concerned with the quantification of uncertainties in the presence of data, model(s) and knowledge about the system, and offers a technical contribution to decision-making processes whilst acknowledging industrial constraints. The approach presented can be applied to a range of different business contexts, from research or early design through to certification or in-service processes. The authors aim to foster optimal trade-offs between literature-referenced methodologies and the simplified approaches often inevitable in practice, owing to data, time or budget limitations of technical decision-makers. Uncertainty in Industrial Practice: Features recent uncertainty case studies carried out in the nuclear, air & space, oil, mechanical and civil engineering industries set in a common methodological framework. Presents methods for organizing and treating uncertainties in a generic and prioritized perspective. Illustrates practical difficulties and solutions encountered according to the level of complexity, information available and regulatory and financial constraints. Discusses best practice in uncertainty modeling, propagation and sensitivity analysis through a variety of statistical and numerical methods. Reviews recent standards, references and available software, providing an essential resource for engineers and risk analysts in a wide variety of industries. This book provides a guide to dealing with quantitative uncertainty in engineering and modelling and is aimed at practitioners, including risk-industry regulators and academics wishing to develop industry-realistic methodologies.

Author : Richard Friberg
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262528193
Total Pages : 395 pages
Book Rating : 4.91/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Managing Risk and Uncertainty written by Richard Friberg and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-11-13 with total page 395 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive framework for assessing strategies for managing risk and uncertainty, integrating theory and practice and synthesizing insights from many fields. This book offers a framework for making decisions under risk and uncertainty. Synthesizing research from economics, finance, decision theory, management, and other fields, the book provides a set of tools and a way of thinking that determines the relative merits of different strategies. It takes as its premise that we make better decisions if we use the whole toolkit of economics and related fields to inform our decision making. The text explores the distinction between risk and uncertainty and covers standard models of decision making under risk as well as more recent work on decision making under uncertainty, with a particular focus on strategic interaction. It also examines the implications of incomplete markets for managing under uncertainty. It presents four core strategies: a benchmark strategy (proceeding as if risk and uncertainty were low), a financial hedging strategy (valuable if there is much risk), an operational hedging strategy (valuable for conditions of much uncertainty), and a flexible strategy (valuable if there is much risk and/or uncertainty). The book then examines various aspects of these strategies in greater depth, building on empirical work in several different fields. Topics include price-setting, real options and Monte Carlo techniques, organizational structure, and behavioral biases. Many chapters include exercises and appendixes with additional material. The book can be used in graduate or advanced undergraduate courses in risk management, as a guide for researchers, or as a reference for management practitioners.

Author : Charles Hirsch
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 331977767X
Total Pages : 819 pages
Book Rating : 4.72/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Uncertainty Management for Robust Industrial Design in Aeronautics written by Charles Hirsch and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-07-21 with total page 819 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book covers cutting-edge findings related to uncertainty quantification and optimization under uncertainties (i.e. robust and reliable optimization), with a special emphasis on aeronautics and turbomachinery, although not limited to these fields. It describes new methods for uncertainty quantification, such as non-intrusive polynomial chaos, collocation methods, perturbation methods, as well as adjoint based and multi-level Monte Carlo methods. It includes methods for characterization of most influential uncertainties, as well as formulations for robust and reliable design optimization. A distinctive element of the book is the unique collection of test cases with prescribed uncertainties, which are representative of the current engineering practice of the industrial consortium partners involved in UMRIDA, a level 1 collaborative project within the European Commission's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7). All developed methods are benchmarked against these industrial challenges. Moreover, the book includes a section dedicated to Best Practice Guidelines for uncertainty quantification and robust design optimization, summarizing the findings obtained by the consortium members within the UMRIDA project. All in all, the book offers a authoritative guide to cutting-edge methodologies for uncertainty management in engineering design, covers a wide range of applications and discusses new ideas for future research and interdisciplinary collaborations.

Author : Etienne de Rocquigny
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119941652
Total Pages : 483 pages
Book Rating : 4.51/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Modelling Under Risk and Uncertainty written by Etienne de Rocquigny and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-04-12 with total page 483 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modelling has permeated virtually all areas of industrial, environmental, economic, bio-medical or civil engineering: yet the use of models for decision-making raises a number of issues to which this book is dedicated: How uncertain is my model ? Is it truly valuable to support decision-making ? What kind of decision can be truly supported and how can I handle residual uncertainty ? How much refined should the mathematical description be, given the true data limitations ? Could the uncertainty be reduced through more data, increased modeling investment or computational budget ? Should it be reduced now or later ? How robust is the analysis or the computational methods involved ? Should / could those methods be more robust ? Does it make sense to handle uncertainty, risk, lack of knowledge, variability or errors altogether ? How reasonable is the choice of probabilistic modeling for rare events ? How rare are the events to be considered ? How far does it make sense to handle extreme events and elaborate confidence figures ? Can I take advantage of expert / phenomenological knowledge to tighten the probabilistic figures ? Are there connex domains that could provide models or inspiration for my problem ? Written by a leader at the crossroads of industry, academia and engineering, and based on decades of multi-disciplinary field experience, Modelling Under Risk and Uncertainty gives a self-consistent introduction to the methods involved by any type of modeling development acknowledging the inevitable uncertainty and associated risks. It goes beyond the “black-box” view that some analysts, modelers, risk experts or statisticians develop on the underlying phenomenology of the environmental or industrial processes, without valuing enough their physical properties and inner modelling potential nor challenging the practical plausibility of mathematical hypotheses; conversely it is also to attract environmental or engineering modellers to better handle model confidence issues through finer statistical and risk analysis material taking advantage of advanced scientific computing, to face new regulations departing from deterministic design or support robust decision-making. Modelling Under Risk and Uncertainty: Addresses a concern of growing interest for large industries, environmentalists or analysts: robust modeling for decision-making in complex systems. Gives new insights into the peculiar mathematical and computational challenges generated by recent industrial safety or environmental control analysis for rare events. Implements decision theory choices differentiating or aggregating the dimensions of risk/aleatory and epistemic uncertainty through a consistent multi-disciplinary set of statistical estimation, physical modelling, robust computation and risk analysis. Provides an original review of the advanced inverse probabilistic approaches for model identification, calibration or data assimilation, key to digest fast-growing multi-physical data acquisition. Illustrated with one favourite pedagogical example crossing natural risk, engineering and economics, developed throughout the book to facilitate the reading and understanding. Supports Master/PhD-level course as well as advanced tutorials for professional training Analysts and researchers in numerical modeling, applied statistics, scientific computing, reliability, advanced engineering, natural risk or environmental science will benefit from this book.

Author : Amaresh Chakrabarti
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319194496
Total Pages : 488 pages
Book Rating : 4.93/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Impact of Design Research on Industrial Practice written by Amaresh Chakrabarti and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-07-11 with total page 488 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Showcasing exemplars of how various aspects of design research were successfully transitioned into and influenced, design practice, this book features chapters written by eminent international researchers and practitioners from industry on the Impact of Design Research on Industrial Practice. Chapters written by internationally acclaimed researchers of design analyse the findings (guidelines, methods and tools), technologies/products and educational approaches that have been transferred as tools, technologies and people to transform industrial practice of engineering design, whilst the chapters that are written by industrial practitioners describe their experience of how various tools, technologies and training impacted design practice. The main benefit of this book, for educators, researchers and practitioners in (engineering) design, will be access to a comprehensive coverage of case studies of successful transfer of outcomes of design research into practice; as well as guidelines and platforms for successful transfer of research into practice.

Author : Andrew Dienstfrey
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3642326773
Total Pages : 335 pages
Book Rating : 4.76/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Uncertainty Quantification in Scientific Computing written by Andrew Dienstfrey and published by Springer. This book was released on 2012-08-11 with total page 335 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book constitutes the refereed post-proceedings of the 10th IFIP WG 2.5 Working Conference on Uncertainty Quantification in Scientific Computing, WoCoUQ 2011, held in Boulder, CO, USA, in August 2011. The 24 revised papers were carefully reviewed and selected from numerous submissions. They are organized in the following topical sections: UQ need: risk, policy, and decision making, UQ theory, UQ tools, UQ practice, and hot topics. The papers are followed by the records of the discussions between the participants and the speaker.

Author : Philipp Limbourg
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3540692878
Total Pages : 148 pages
Book Rating : 4.74/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Dependability Modelling under Uncertainty written by Philipp Limbourg and published by Springer. This book was released on 2008-09-08 with total page 148 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mechatronic design processes have become shorter and more parallelized, induced by growing time-to-market pressure. Methods that enable quantitative analysis in early design stages are required, should dependability analyses aim to influence the design. Due to the limited amount of data in this phase, the level of uncertainty is high and explicit modeling of these uncertainties becomes necessary. This work introduces new uncertainty-preserving dependability methods for early design stages. These include the propagation of uncertainty through dependability models, the activation of data from similar components for analyses and the integration of uncertain dependability predictions into an optimization framework. It is shown that Dempster-Shafer theory can be an alternative to probability theory in early design stage dependability predictions. Expert estimates can be represented, input uncertainty is propagated through the system and prediction uncertainty can be measured and interpreted. The resulting coherent methodology can be applied to represent the uncertainty in dependability models.

Author : C.F Dietrich
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1351406280
Total Pages : 554 pages
Book Rating : 4.84/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Uncertainty, Calibration and Probability written by C.F Dietrich and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-07-12 with total page 554 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: All measurements are subject to error because no quantity can be known exactly; hence, any measurement has a probability of lying within a certain range. The more precise the measurement, the smaller the range of uncertainty. Uncertainty, Calibration and Probability is a comprehensive treatment of the statistics and methods of estimating these calibration uncertainties. The book features the general theory of uncertainty involving the combination (convolution) of non-Gaussian, student t, and Gaussian distributions; the use of rectangular distributions to represent systematic uncertainties; and measurable and nonmeasurable uncertainties that require estimation. The author also discusses sources of measurement errors and curve fitting with numerous examples of uncertainty case studies. Many useful tables and computational formulae are included as well. All formulations are discussed and demonstrated with the minimum of mathematical knowledge assumed. This second edition offers additional examples in each chapter, and detailed additions and alterations made to the text. New chapters consist of the general theory of uncertainty and applications to industry and a new section discusses the use of orthogonal polynomials in curve fitting. Focusing on practical problems of measurement, Uncertainty, Calibration and Probability is an invaluable reference tool for R&D laboratories in the engineering/manufacturing industries and for undergraduate and graduate students in physics, engineering, and metrology.

Author : Terje Aven
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118763068
Total Pages : 152 pages
Book Rating : 4.63/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Uncertainty in Risk Assessment written by Terje Aven and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-12-17 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explores methods for the representation and treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment In providing guidance for practical decision-making situations concerning high-consequence technologies (e.g., nuclear, oil and gas, transport, etc.), the theories and methods studied in Uncertainty in Risk Assessment have wide-ranging applications from engineering and medicine to environmental impacts and natural disasters, security, and financial risk management. The main focus, however, is on engineering applications. While requiring some fundamental background in risk assessment, as well as a basic knowledge of probability theory and statistics, Uncertainty in Risk Assessment can be read profitably by a broad audience of professionals in the field, including researchers and graduate students on courses within risk analysis, statistics, engineering, and the physical sciences. Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Illustrates the need for seeing beyond probability to represent uncertainties in risk assessment contexts. Provides simple explanations (supported by straightforward numerical examples) of the meaning of different types of probabilities, including interval probabilities, and the fundamentals of possibility theory and evidence theory. Offers guidance on when to use probability and when to use an alternative representation of uncertainty. Presents and discusses methods for the representation and characterization of uncertainty in risk assessment. Uses examples to clearly illustrate ideas and concepts.

Author : John X. Wang
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1466577584
Total Pages : 216 pages
Book Rating : 4.89/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Cellular Manufacturing written by John X. Wang and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2015-01-14 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In today's business world, competitiveness defines the industrial leading edge. Organizations and businesses of all sizes are adopting Lean manufacturing practices to increase efficiency and address worries about their bottom lines. In a detailed review of this staple of Lean manufacturing, Cellular Manufacturing: Mitigating Risk and Uncertainty ou