Second Round Effects Of Oil Price Shocks Implications For Europes Inflation Outlook

Author : Chikako Baba
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 40 pages
Book Rating : 4.51/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Second-Round Effects of Oil Price Shocks -- Implications for Europe’s Inflation Outlook written by Chikako Baba and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-09-09 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The pass-through effects of oil price shocks on wage and consumer price inflation vary with the states or structural characteristics of an economy. The effects have declined over time in Europe and been higher in emerging European economies than in advanced economies. The pass-through to wages is found to have been higher when the prevailing level of inflation was higher or when the degrees of unionization and centralized bargaining were higher, while lower under a higher credibility of monetary policy. The effects of oil price shocks on core inflation and inflation expectations are consistent with their effects on wages.

Author : Jordi Galí
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226278875
Total Pages : 663 pages
Book Rating : 4.72/5 ( download)

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Download or read book International Dimensions of Monetary Policy written by Jordi Galí and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2010-03-15 with total page 663 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: United States monetary policy has traditionally been modeled under the assumption that the domestic economy is immune to international factors and exogenous shocks. Such an assumption is increasingly unrealistic in the age of integrated capital markets, tightened links between national economies, and reduced trading costs. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy brings together fresh research to address the repercussions of the continuing evolution toward globalization for the conduct of monetary policy. In this comprehensive book, the authors examine the real and potential effects of increased openness and exposure to international economic dynamics from a variety of perspectives. Their findings reveal that central banks continue to influence decisively domestic economic outcomes—even inflation—suggesting that international factors may have a limited role in national performance. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy will lead the way in analyzing monetary policy measures in complex economies.

Author : Sangyup Choi
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484318439
Total Pages : 55 pages
Book Rating : 4.30/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Oil Prices and Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from Advanced and Developing Economies written by Sangyup Choi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-09-05 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the impact of fluctuations in global oil prices on domestic inflation using an unbalanced panel of 72 advanced and developing economies over the period from 1970 to 2015. We find that a 10 percent increase in global oil inflation increases, on average, domestic inflation by about 0.4 percentage point on impact, with the effect vanishing after two years and being similar between advanced and developing economies. We also find that the effect is asymmetric, with positive oil price shocks having a larger effect than negative ones. The impact of oil price shocks, however, has declined over time due in large part to a better conduct of monetary policy. We further examine the transmission channels of oil price shocks on domestic inflation during the recent decades, by making use of a monthly dataset from 2000 to 2015. The results suggest that the share of transport in the CPI basket and energy subsidies are the most robust factors in explaining cross-country variations in the effects of oil price shocks during the this period.

Author : Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1616356154
Total Pages : 34 pages
Book Rating : 4.56/5 ( download)

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Download or read book The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation written by Mr. Kangni R Kpodar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-11-12 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.

Author : Mr. Aasim M. Husain
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 151357227X
Total Pages : 41 pages
Book Rating : 4.77/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices written by Mr. Aasim M. Husain and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-07-14 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.

Author : Mr.Rabah Arezki
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475572360
Total Pages : 30 pages
Book Rating : 4.60/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Oil Prices and the Global Economy written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-01-27 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses. The model provides, inter alia, a useful analytical framework to explore the effects of: a change in world GDP growth; a change in the efficiency of oil usage; and a change in the supply of oil. Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, our analysis suggests that an era of prolonged low oil prices is likely to be followed by a period where oil prices overshoot their long-term upward trend.

Author : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1135179778
Total Pages : 402 pages
Book Rating : 4.79/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Author : Robert C. M. Beyer
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 14 pages
Book Rating : 4.53/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Causes and Implications of Elevated Inflation in Cyprus written by Robert C. M. Beyer and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-07-07 with total page 14 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation has risen sharply in Cyprus, initially driven by imported prices, but increasingly broadening to domestic prices. A Phillips Curve estimate attributes the high inflation largely to energy prices, external price pressures, and inflation expectations at the end of 2022. Historically high pass-through of inflation shocks to wages—amplified by a tight labor market—may make inflation persistent. This calls for policies to stem inflationary pressures while protecting vulnerable households.

Author : International Monetary
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 186 pages
Book Rating : 4.39/5 ( download)

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Download or read book World Economic Outlook, October 2022 written by International Monetary and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-10-11 with total page 186 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global economic activity is experiencing a broad-based and sharper-than-expected slowdown, with inflation higher than seen in several decades. The cost-of-living crisis, tightening financial conditions in most regions, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the lingering COVID-19 pandemic all weigh heavily on the outlook. Global growth is forecast to slow from 6.0 percent in 2021 to 3.2 percent in 2022 and 2.7 percent in 2023. This is the weakest growth profile since 2001 except for the global financial crisis and the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Global inflation is forecast to rise from 4.7 percent in 2021 to 8.8 percent in 2022 but to decline to 6.5 percent in 2023 and to 4.1 percent by 2024. Monetary policy should stay the course to restore price stability, and fiscal policy should aim to alleviate the cost-of-living pressures while maintaining a sufficiently tight stance aligned with monetary policy. Structural reforms can further support the fight against inflation by improving productivity and easing supply constraints, while multilateral cooperation is necessary for fast-tracking the green energy transition and preventing fragmentation.

Author : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 51 pages
Book Rating : 4.39/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Cyprus written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-05-28 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cyprus: Selected Issues