Rational Decisions

Author : Ken Binmore
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400833094
Total Pages : 216 pages
Book Rating : 4.92/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Rational Decisions written by Ken Binmore and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2008-12-29 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is widely held that Bayesian decision theory is the final word on how a rational person should make decisions. However, Leonard Savage--the inventor of Bayesian decision theory--argued that it would be ridiculous to use his theory outside the kind of small world in which it is always possible to "look before you leap." If taken seriously, this view makes Bayesian decision theory inappropriate for the large worlds of scientific discovery and macroeconomic enterprise. When is it correct to use Bayesian decision theory--and when does it need to be modified? Using a minimum of mathematics, Rational Decisions clearly explains the foundations of Bayesian decision theory and shows why Savage restricted the theory's application to small worlds. The book is a wide-ranging exploration of standard theories of choice and belief under risk and uncertainty. Ken Binmore discusses the various philosophical attitudes related to the nature of probability and offers resolutions to paradoxes believed to hinder further progress. In arguing that the Bayesian approach to knowledge is inadequate in a large world, Binmore proposes an extension to Bayesian decision theory--allowing the idea of a mixed strategy in game theory to be expanded to a larger set of what Binmore refers to as "muddled" strategies. Written by one of the world's leading game theorists, Rational Decisions is the touchstone for anyone needing a concise, accessible, and expert view on Bayesian decision making.

Author : Frédéric Adam
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1000543102
Total Pages : 245 pages
Book Rating : 4.00/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Rational Decisions in Organisations written by Frédéric Adam and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2022-05-30 with total page 245 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Managers in organisations must make rational decisions. Rational decision making is the opposite of intuitive decision making. It is a strict procedure utilising objective knowledge and logic. It involves identifying the problem to solve, gathering facts, identifying options and outcomes, analysing them, considering all the relationships and selecting the decision. Rational decision making requires support: methods and software tools. The identification of the problem to solve needs methods that would measure and evaluate the current situation. Identification and evaluation of options and analysis of the available possibilities involves analysis and optimisation methods. Incorporating intuition into rational decision making needs adequate methods that would translate ideas or observed behaviours into hard data. Communication, observation and opinions recording is hardly possible today without adequate software. Information and data that form the input, intermediate variables and the output must be stored, managed and made accessible in a user-friendly manner. Rational Decisions in Organisations: Theoretical and Practical Aspects presents selected recent developments in the support of the widely understood rational decision making in organisations, illustrated through case studies. The book shows not only the variety of perspectives involved in decision making, but also the variety of domains where rational decision support systems are needed. The case studies present decision making by medical doctors, students and managers of various universities, IT project teams, construction companies, banks and small and large manufacturing companies. Covering the richness of relationships in which the decisions should and must be taken, the book illustrates how modern organisations operate in chains and networks; they have multiple responsibilities, including social, legal, business and ethical duties. Nowadays, managers in organisations can make transparent decisions and consider a multitude of stakeholders and their diverse features, incorporating diverse criteria, using multiple types and drivers of information and decision-making patterns, and referring to numerous lessons learned. As the book makes clear, the marriage of theoretical ideas with the possibilities offered by technology can make the decisions in organisations more rational and, at the same time, more human.

Author : Reid Hastie
Publisher : SAGE
ISBN 13 : 1412959039
Total Pages : 393 pages
Book Rating : 4.32/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Rational Choice in an Uncertain World written by Reid Hastie and published by SAGE. This book was released on 2010 with total page 393 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the Second Edition of Rational Choice in an Uncertain World the authors compare the basic principles of rationality with actual behaviour in making decisions. They describe theories and research findings from the field of judgment and decision making in a non-technical manner, using anecdotes as a teaching device. Intended as an introductory textbook for advanced undergraduate and graduate students, the material not only is of scholarly interest but is practical as well. The Second Edition includes: - more coverage on the role of emotions, happiness, and general well-being in decisions - a summary of the new research on the neuroscience of decision processes - more discussion of the adaptive value of (non-rational heuristics) - expansion of the graphics for decision trees, probability trees, and Venn diagrams.

Author : Myron Tribus
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 1483146235
Total Pages : 498 pages
Book Rating : 4.32/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Rational Descriptions, Decisions and Designs written by Myron Tribus and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2016-03-05 with total page 498 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rational Descriptions, Decisions and Designs is a reference for understanding the aspects of rational decision theory in terms of the basic formalism of information theory. The text provides ways to achieve correct engineering design decisions. The book starts with an understanding for the need to apply rationality, as opposed to uncertainty, in design decision making. Inductive logic in computers is explained where the design of the machine and the accompanying software are considered. The text then explains the functional equations and the problems of arriving at a rational description through some mathematical preliminaries. Bayes' equation and rational inference as tools for adjusting probabilities when something new is encountered in earlier probability distributions are explained. The book presents as well a case study concerning the error made in following specifications of spark plugs. The author also explains the Bernoulli trials, where a probability that a better hypothesis than that already adopted may exist. The rational measure of uncertainty and the principle of maximum entropy with sample calculations are included in the text. After considering the probabilities, the decision theory is taken up where engineering design follows. Examples regarding transmitter and voltmeter designs are presented. The book ends by explaining probabilities of success and failure as applied to reliability engineering, that it is a state of knowledge rather than the state of a thing. The text can serve as a textbook for students in technology engineering and design, and as a useful reference for mathematicians, statisticians, and fabrication engineers.

Author : Franz Eisenführ
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9783642028519
Total Pages : 447 pages
Book Rating : 4.19/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Rational Decision Making written by Franz Eisenführ and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 447 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Author : Nicholas Rescher
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN 13 : 9780742514904
Total Pages : 168 pages
Book Rating : 4.00/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Sensible Decisions written by Nicholas Rescher and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2003 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In personal and public affairs alike we constantly confront the need for deciding among available alternatives. Sensible Decisions synthesizes Nicholas Rescher's contribution to this discussion over the years. Rescher's prime aim is to illuminate some of the theoretical complications and perplexities that characterize rational procedure in matters of decision making at the public policy level. Visit our website for sample chapters!

Author : Gerd Gigerenzer
Publisher : Evolution and Cognition
ISBN 13 : 019939007X
Total Pages : 329 pages
Book Rating : 4.76/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Simply Rational written by Gerd Gigerenzer and published by Evolution and Cognition. This book was released on 2015 with total page 329 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical illiteracy can have an enormously negative impact on decision making. This volume of collected papers brings together applied and theoretical research on risks and decision making across the fields of medicine, psychology, and economics. Collectively, the essays demonstrate why the frame in which statistics are communicated is essential for broader understanding and sound decision making, and that understanding risks and uncertainty has wide-reaching implications for daily life. Gerd Gigerenzer provides a lucid review and catalog of concrete instances of heuristics, or rules of thumb, that people and animals rely on to make decisions under uncertainty, explaining why these are very often more rational than probability models. After a critical look at behavioral theories that do not model actual psychological processes, the book concludes with a call for a heuristic revolution that will enable us to understand the ecological rationality of both statistics and heuristics, and bring a dose of sanity to the study of rationality.

Author : Kelly Lambert
Publisher : Yale University Press
ISBN 13 : 0300240910
Total Pages : 312 pages
Book Rating : 4.17/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Well-Grounded written by Kelly Lambert and published by Yale University Press. This book was released on 2018-09-25 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A neuroscientist reveals unique aspects of decision making and the best strategies for protecting and enhancing the brain’s ability to navigate life’s uncertainties Contingency calculations—the ability to predict the outcomes of decisions and actions—are critical for survival and success. Our amazing brains continually process past and current experiences to enable us to make the most adaptive choices. But when the brain’s information systems are compromised—by such varying conditions as drug addiction, poverty, mental illness, or even privilege—we can lose the ability to arrive at informed decisions. In this engaging book, behavioral neuroscientist Kelly Lambert explores a variety of the modern factors that can lead to warped neural processing, or distorted realities she terms “brain bubbles.” Individuals who define success in terms of creature comforts and immediate gratification, for instance, may interact less with the physical and social world and thereby dull their ability to imagine varied contingency scenarios. The author underscores how continuous, meaningful, and well-grounded experiences are required if we are to make the best decisions throughout our lives.

Author : Hamid Noorani
Publisher : Xlibris Corporation
ISBN 13 : 146912453X
Total Pages : 183 pages
Book Rating : 4.37/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Rational Decision-Making written by Hamid Noorani and published by Xlibris Corporation. This book was released on 2010-04-16 with total page 183 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: RATIONAL DECISION-MAKING For a Brighter FutureFor the Love of the World This book shows youthrough examples and application exerciseshow to make rational decisions that will make you more productive. Based on the modern philosophy of Systems-Thinking, the book presents a well-defined path to living a productive life: making rational choices that will help you meet your long-term goals and fulfill your obligations to others. To assist you, the book provides tools and concepts you can use to set your objectives, identify and weigh the options, and evaluate the expected benefits. And the many thought-provoking, real-life situations will show you how to craft strategic initiativeswhether in individual, group, organizational, or public policy decisions.

Author : J. Davidson Frame
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118235649
Total Pages : 304 pages
Book Rating : 4.45/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Framing Decisions written by J. Davidson Frame and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-10-15 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The economic crisis of 2008–2009 was a transformational event: it demonstrated that smart people aren't as smart as they and the public think. The crisis arose because a lot of highly educated people in high-impact positions— political power brokers, business leaders, and large segments of the general public—made a lot of bad decisions despite unprecedented access to data, highly sophisticated decision support systems, methodological advances in the decision sciences, and guidance from highly experienced experts. How could we get things so wrong? The answer, says J. Davidson Frame in Framing Decisions: Decision Making That Accounts for Irrationality, People, and Constraints, is that traditional processes do not account for the three critical immeasurable elements highlighted in the book's subtitle— irrationality, people, and constraints. Frame argues that decision-makers need to move beyond their single-minded focus on rational and optimal solutions as preached by the traditional paradigm. They must accommodate a decision's social space and address the realities of dissimulation, incompetence, legacy, greed, peer pressure, and conflict. In the final analysis, when making decisions of consequence, they should focus on people – both as individuals and in groups. Framing Decisions offers a new approach to decision making that gets decision-makers to put people and social context at the heart of the decision process. It offers guidance on how to make decisions in a real world filled with real people seeking real solutions to their problems.