Preparing For The Possibility Of A North Korean Collapse

Author : Bruce W. Bennett
Publisher : Rand Corporation
ISBN 13 : 0833081756
Total Pages : 343 pages
Book Rating : 4.59/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Preparing for the Possibility of a North Korean Collapse written by Bruce W. Bennett and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2013-09-19 with total page 343 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A North Korean government collapse would have serious consequences in North Korea and beyond. At the very least, a collapse would reduce the already scarce food and essential goods available to the population, in part due to hoarding and increasing costs. This could lead to a humanitarian disaster. Factions emerging after a collapse could plunge the country into civil war that spills over into neighboring countries. Weapons of mass destruction (WMD) could be used and even proliferated. This report examines ways of controlling and mitigating the consequences, recognizing that the Republic of Korea (ROK) and its U.S. ally will almost certainly need to intervene militarily in the North, likely seeking Korean unification as the ultimate outcome. But such an intervention requires serious preparation. North Koreans must be convinced that they will be treated well and could actually have better lives after unification. The allies need to prepare to deliver humanitarian aid in the North, stop conflict, demilitarize the North Korean military and security services over time, and secure and eventually eliminate North Korean WMD. Potential Chinese intervention must be addressed, ideally leading to cooperation with ROK and U.S. forces. Plans are needed for liberating North Korean political prisons before the guards execute the prisoners. Property rights need to be addressed. The ROK must sustain its military capabilities despite major reductions in force size due to very low birthrates. And ROK reluctance to broadly address North Korean collapse must be overcome so that plans in these areas can move forward.

Author : Tara O
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 1137598018
Total Pages : 183 pages
Book Rating : 4.11/5 ( download)

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Download or read book The Collapse of North Korea written by Tara O and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-07-25 with total page 183 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book highlights the increasing risk of North Korea’s collapse and considers the necessary actions that would enable the neighboring powers to prepare for such an event. North Korea's deteriorating economic conditions, its reliance on external assistance, and the degree of information penetration all provide hints of its collapse. Whether the chance is high or low, the collapse of North Korea and subsequent Korean unification would drastically alter the geostrategic landscape and profoundly affect the national interests of the regional powers—South Korea, China, the United States, Japan, and Russia. The most desirable scenario for a post-unification Korean Peninsula is a successfully developed and integrated non-nuclear Korea acting as a responsible regional and world stakeholder. This work considers the major challenges expected after a North Korean collapse, including the control of nuclear weapons, disorder in the immediate aftermath of collapse, and economic and social integration. The author then outlines how regional powers need to prepare to handle these challenges in order to minimize suffering and to set the foundation for long-term development and regional stability.

Author : Jennifer Lind
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.60/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Preparing for North Korean Collapse written by Jennifer Lind and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Author : U. S. Department of Defense
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781520935966
Total Pages : 81 pages
Book Rating : 4.6X/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Preparing for Upheaval in North Korea: Assuming North Korean Regime Collapse - Kim Family, Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), Songbun System, Juche Ideology, Pyongyang written by U. S. Department of Defense and published by . This book was released on 2017-03-27 with total page 81 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study will attempt to provide the optimal policy prescription for the Republic of Korea (ROK) Army on how to disarm, demobilize and reintegrate (DDR) the North Korean people in the case of their regime collapse. It is important to know how the likelihood of environment in which post-conflict reconstruction efforts will be implemented. The viability of any contingency plan should be assessed, based on an assumption about the environment being in probable upheaval. However, little analysis of the viability of the contingency plan, including the DDR program, has been undertaken in the context of North Korean regime collapse. Especially, the research about expectations and assumptions related to the possible North Korean attitude and probable post-regime collapse environment has been rare. The contingency planning, thus, needs further research and empirical supporting data, which can enhance its viability in practice. Given this perspective, this study attempts to predict the North Korean people's possible attitude in their upheaval, based on analysis about the current regime's control system and recent changes. This study also assumes different scenarios in which DDR would be implemented to reconstruct a post-conflict society, by differentiating critical uncertainties in each case.CHAPTER I - INTRODUCTION * A. MAJOR RESEARCH QUESTION * B. IMPORTANCE * C. PROBLEM AND HYPHOTHESIS * D. LITERATURE REVIEW * 1. Conceptualizing DDR * 2. Lessons Learned * 3. Applicability to North Korea * E. METHODS AND SOURCES * F. THESIS OVERVIEW * CHAPTER II - NORTH KOREAN ATTITUDE TOWARD UPHEAVAL * A. INTRODUCTION * B. INSIDE NORTH KOREA * 1. Foundation of the Social Control System * a. Recent Changes in the Social Control System * 2. Songbun System * a. Recent Changes in the Songbun System * 3. Juche Ideology * a. Recent Changes in Ideology * 4. A Garrison State * a. The Status of The Korean People's Army * b. Capabilities * c. Reserve Forces * 5. Implications * C. CONCLUSION * CHAPTER III - NORTH KOREAN REGIME COLLAPSE * A. INTRODUCTION * B. REGIME COLLAPSE * 1. Defining the Status of Regime Collapse * 2. Scenarios and Assumptions * a. Critical Uncertainties * b. First Scenario * c. Second Scenario * d. Third Scenario * e. Fourth Scenario * 3. Common Traits in All Scenarios * C. CONCLUSION * CHAPTER IV - POLICY RECOMENDATIONS * A. INTRODUCTION * B. POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS * 1. Policy Recommendations for the First Scenario * 2. Policy Recommendations for the Second Scenario * 3. Policy Recommendations for the Third Scenario * 4. Policy Recommendations for the Fourth Scenario * C. POLICY RECOMMENDATION EFFECTIVE IN ALL SCENARIOS * D. CONCLUSION * LIST OF REFERENCES

Author : Jonathan D. Pollack
Publisher : RAND Corporation
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 126 pages
Book Rating : 4.27/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Preparing for Korean Unification written by Jonathan D. Pollack and published by RAND Corporation. This book was released on 1999 with total page 126 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study examines four alternative scenarios that would result in the unification of the Korean peninsula. The authors describe the defining characteristics of each scenario, potential indicators that would predict specific outcomes, some possible variations in paths to unification, and some operational implications for the U.S. Army under different conditions and circumstances. The four scenarios (peaceful unification, collapse and absorption, unification through armed conflict, and disequilibrium and external intervention) highlight both the increasing vulnerabilities of the North Korean state and the substantial uncertainties that attach to each outcome and to the potential U.S. policy respones.

Author : Paul B. Stares
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.62/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Preparing for Sudden Change in North Korea written by Paul B. Stares and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Author : Ju Hyun KIm
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 97 pages
Book Rating : 4.17/5 ( download)

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Download or read book State Succession in the Case of a Unified Korea Resulting from the Collapse of North Korea written by Ju Hyun KIm and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 97 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: One potential scenario regarding the future of North Korea is state collapse and unification with South Korea. Effectively isolated from the international community and the world economy, bereft of the great power patronage that it once enjoyed from the Soviet Union and China, and enduring economic shortages and distress, Pyongyang faces challenges that may cumulatively lead to its dissolution. Were collapse to occur, many surmise, unification with the South seems a plausible consequence and many South Koreans expect the consequence. However, unification of the Korean peninsula by the South's absorption of the North, faces numerous obstacles. There are many possible legal and institutional issues that would be raised by collapse of North Korea and that would in turn figure into prospects for unification with the South. These include: South and North Korea's membership as sovereign states in the United Nations; Historical issues stemming from the Korean War, including the continuing relevance of the United Nations and Combined Forces Commands; and Legal stipulation incorporated into past North-South agreements, such as the "Inter-Korean Basic Agreement." Adding to the complexity of these issues is the geopolitical context in which their resolution must be addressed. In addition to the goals and policies of Seoul and Washington in dealing with state collapse in North Korea, the concerns and approaches of Beijing, Moscow, and Tokyo will also have an impact on how these legal and institutional questions are solved. Given these complex issues, it is not a foregone conclusion that North Korea, following collapse, may easily be incorporated into a unified Korean state under Seoul's direction. Therefore, I suggest that the South Korean government needs to prepare for a North Korean collapse which could lead a possibly unified Korea. The suggestions for preparation can be categorized into three areas: political/diplomatic, military, and social/economic.

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.84/5 ( download)

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Download or read book The ROK Army's Role When North Korea Collapses Without a War with the ROK. written by and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This monograph examines the possibility of North Korea's collapse and course of action for a stability and support operation to deal with the collapse. North Korea seems fairly stable in terms of political, socio-ideological, military and diplomatic perspectives. However, the country needs to improve its economy to survive for an extended period. The only ways it can improve its economy is to open borders and engage with the rest of the world. North Korea also needs to do substantial market oriented reform to attract investment form outside and to encourage its people to work. The recent activities of the North, including the June 2000 summit can be understood in this regard. However, it will be facing the danger of exposing its people to information that is the most critical vulnerability of the regime. The collapse and subsequent stability and support operations is still possible. When the North collapses, the strategic interests of the world s major powers are centered around the stability and economic prosperity of Korea. They all want to get access to the new markets while don't want instability due to massive migration, spill over violence, and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. The best course of action to deal with the collapse of North Korea is the ROK Army to lead the multinational and interagency stability operation and support operation. The collapse and unification can happen much faster than expected. Once begun, there will be not much time to prepare. The ROK Army needs to be prepared to lead the stability and support operation in coordinate with the major powers to deal with North Korea s collapse. It must seize the initiative for unification while minimizing foreign intervention to prevent the repetition of the unpleasant history of the UN protectorate from happening.

Author : Andrei Lankov
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0199390037
Total Pages : 350 pages
Book Rating : 4.38/5 ( download)

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Download or read book The Real North Korea written by Andrei Lankov and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2015 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In The Real North Korea, Lankov substitutes cold, clear analysis for the overheated rhetoric surrounding this opaque police state. Based on vast expertise, this book reveals how average North Koreans live, how their leaders rule, and how both survive

Author : Bruce W. Bennett
Publisher : Rand Corporation
ISBN 13 : 0833097989
Total Pages : 60 pages
Book Rating : 4.89/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Preparing North Korean Elites for Unification written by Bruce W. Bennett and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2017-04-27 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For years, the Republic of Korea (also known as South Korea) has pursued a policy of peaceful reunification with North Korea. This report examines what could be done to convince North Korean elites that unification would be good for them.