Predicting The Future In Science Economics And Politics

Author : Frank Whelon Wayman
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1783471875
Total Pages : 525 pages
Book Rating : 4.74/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Predicting the Future in Science, Economics, and Politics written by Frank Whelon Wayman and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2014-08-29 with total page 525 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is a puzzle that while academic research has increased in specialization, the important and complex problems facing humans urgently require a synthesis of understanding. This unique collaboration attempts to address such a problem by bringing togeth

Author : Eglė Rindzevičiūtė
Publisher : Cornell University Press
ISBN 13 : 1501769790
Total Pages : 188 pages
Book Rating : 4.95/5 ( download)

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Download or read book The Will to Predict written by Eglė Rindzevičiūtė and published by Cornell University Press. This book was released on 2023-05-15 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In The Will to Predict, Eglė Rindzevičiūtė demonstrates how the logic of scientific expertise cannot be properly understood without knowing the conceptual and institutional history of scientific prediction. She notes that predictions of future population, economic growth, environmental change, and scientific and technological innovation have shaped much of twentieth and twenty-first-century politics and social life, as well as government policies. Today, such predictions are more necessary than ever as the world undergoes dramatic environmental, political, and technological change. But, she asks, what does it mean to predict scientifically? What are the limits of scientific prediction and what are its effects on governance, institutions, and society? Her intellectual and political history of scientific prediction takes as its example twentieth-century USSR. By outlining the role of prediction in a range of governmental contexts, from economic and social planning to military strategy, she shows that the history of scientific prediction is a transnational one, part of the history of modern science and technology as well as governance. Going beyond the Soviet case, Rindzevičiūtė argues that scientific predictions are central for organizing uncertainty through the orchestration of knowledge and action. Bridging the fields of political sociology, organization studies, and history, The Will to Predict considers what makes knowledge scientific and how such knowledge has impacted late modern governance.

Author : Vaclav Smil
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262291622
Total Pages : 323 pages
Book Rating : 4.20/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Global Catastrophes and Trends written by Vaclav Smil and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2012-09-21 with total page 323 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A wide-ranging, interdisciplinary look at global changes that may occur over the next fifty years—whether sudden and cataclysmic world-changing events or gradually unfolding trends. Fundamental change occurs most often in one of two ways: as a “fatal discontinuity,” a sudden catastrophic event that is potentially world changing, or as a persistent, gradual trend. Global catastrophes include volcanic eruptions, viral pandemics, wars, and large-scale terrorist attacks; trends are demographic, environmental, economic, and political shifts that unfold over time. In this provocative book, scientist Vaclav Smil takes a wide-ranging, interdisciplinary look at the catastrophes and trends the next fifty years may bring. Smil first looks at rare but cataclysmic events, both natural and human-produced, then at trends of global importance, including the transition from fossil fuels to other energy sources and growing economic and social inequality. He also considers environmental change—in some ways an amalgam of sudden discontinuities and gradual change—and assesses the often misunderstood complexities of global warming. Global Catastrophes and Trends does not come down on the side of either doom-and-gloom scenarios or techno-euphoria. Instead, Smil argues that understanding change will help us reverse negative trends and minimize the risk of catastrophe.

Author : Andreas Wenger
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780367513559
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.52/5 ( download)

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Download or read book The Politics and Science of Prevision written by Andreas Wenger and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book inquires into the use of prediction at the intersection of politics and academia, and reflects upon the implications of future-oriented policymaking across different fields. The volume focuses on the key intricacies and fallacies of prevision in a time of complexity, uncertainty and unpredictability. The first part of the book discusses different academic perspectives and contributions to future-oriented policymaking. The second part discusses the role of future knowledge in decision-making across different empirical issues such as climate, health, finance, bio- and nuclear weapons, civil war, and crime. It analyses how prediction is integrated into public policy and governance, and how in return governance structures influence the making of knowledge about the future. Contributors integrate two analytical dimensions in their chapters- the epistemology of prevision and the political and ethical implications of prevision. In this way, the volume contributes to a better understanding of the complex interaction and feedback loops between the processes of creating knowledge about the future and the application of this future knowledge in public policy and governance. This book will be of much interest to students of security studies, political science, sociology, technology studies and IR.

Author : Andreas Wenger
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 9781003022428
Total Pages : 260 pages
Book Rating : 4.21/5 ( download)

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Download or read book The Politics and Science of Prevision written by Andreas Wenger and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2020 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This book inquires into the use of prediction at the intersection of politics and academia, and reflects upon the implications of future-oriented policymaking across different fields. The volume focuses on the key intricacies and fallacies of prevision in a time of complexity, uncertainty and unpredictability. The first part of the book discusses different academic perspectives and contributions to future-oriented policymaking. The second part discusses the role of future knowledge in decision-making across different empirical issues such as climate, health, finance, bio- and nuclear weapons, civil war, and crime. It analyses how prediction is integrated into public policy and governance, and how in return governance structures influence the making of knowledge about the future. Contributors integrate two analytical dimensions in their chapters- the epistemology of prevision and the political and ethical implications of prevision. In this way, the volume contributes to a better understanding of the complex interaction and feedback loops between the processes of creating knowledge about the future and the application of this future knowledge in public policy and governance. This book will be of much interest to students of security studies, political science, sociology, technology studies and IR"--

Author : Daniel R. Sarewitz
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 434 pages
Book Rating : 4.09/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Prediction written by Daniel R. Sarewitz and published by . This book was released on 2000-04 with total page 434 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Based upon ten case studies, Prediction explores how science-based predictions guide policy making and what this means in terms of global warming, biogenetically modifying organisms and polluting the environment with chemicals.

Author : Edward R. Dewey
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781436710213
Total Pages : 272 pages
Book Rating : 4.19/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Cycles written by Edward R. Dewey and published by . This book was released on 2008-06 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This scarce antiquarian book is a facsimile reprint of the original. Due to its age, it may contain imperfections such as marks, notations, marginalia and flawed pages. Because we believe this work is culturally important, we have made it available as part of our commitment for protecting, preserving, and promoting the world's literature in affordable, high quality, modern editions that are true to the original work.

Author : Ignacio Palacios-Huerta
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262320096
Total Pages : 211 pages
Book Rating : 4.92/5 ( download)

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Download or read book In 100 Years written by Ignacio Palacios-Huerta and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2014-02-07 with total page 211 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book, ten prominent economists—including Nobel laureates and several likely laureates—offer their ideas about what the future might hold in 100 years. This pithy and engaging volume shows that economists may be better equipped to predict the future than science fiction writers. Economists' ideas, based on both theory and practice, reflect their knowledge of the laws of human interactions as well as years of experimentation and reflection. Although perhaps not as screenplay-ready as a work of fiction, these economists' predictions are ready for their close-ups. In this book, ten prominent economists—including Nobel laureates and several likely laureates—offer their ideas about the world of the twenty-second century. In scenarios that range from the optimistic to the guardedly gloomy, these thinkers consider such topics as the transformation of work and wages, the continuing increase in inequality, the economic rise of China and India, the endlessly repeating cycle of crisis and (projected) recovery, the benefits of technology, the economic consequences of political extremism, and the long-range effects of climate change. For example, 2013 Nobelist Robert Shiller provides an innovative view of future risk management methods using information technology; and Martin Weitzman raises the intriguing but alarming possibility of using geoengineering techniques to mitigate the inevitable effects of climate change. Contributors Daron Acemoglu, Angus Deaton, Avinash K. Dixit, Edward L. Glaeser, Andreu Mas-Colell, John E. Roemer, Alvin E. Roth, Robert J. Shiller, Robert M. Solow, Martin L. Weitzman

Author : David Orell
Publisher : Basic Books
ISBN 13 : 0786732318
Total Pages : 460 pages
Book Rating : 4.19/5 ( download)

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Download or read book The Future of Everything written by David Orell and published by Basic Books. This book was released on 2008-02-26 with total page 460 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Hurricane Katrina, the internet stock bubble, disease outbreaks -- are these predictable, preventable events, or are we merely the playthings of chaos? A compelling, irreverent, elegantly written history of our future that addresses the most important issues of our time, Apollo's Arrow examines such questions as: How well can we predict the future? Can past discoveries help us understand tomorrow's weather patterns, or tell us what our financial future will look like? Will scientists ever be able to forecast catastrophes, or will we always be at the mercy of Mother Nature, waiting for the next storm, epidemic, or economic crash to thunder through our lives? David Orrell looks back to show us how past scientists (and some charlatans) predicted the future, and where we are on the path to truly understanding what comes next. He asks how today's scientists can claim to predict future climate events when even three-day forecasts prove a serious challenge. Can we predict and control epidemics? Can we accurately foresee our financial future? Or will we only find out about tomorrow when tomorrow arrives?

Author : Andreas Gofas
Publisher : SAGE
ISBN 13 : 1526415607
Total Pages : 983 pages
Book Rating : 4.08/5 ( download)

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Download or read book The SAGE Handbook of the History, Philosophy and Sociology of International Relations written by Andreas Gofas and published by SAGE. This book was released on 2018-07-19 with total page 983 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The SAGE Handbook of the History, Philosophy and Sociology of International Relations offers a panoramic overview of the broad field of International Relations by integrating three distinct but interrelated foci. It retraces the historical development of International Relations (IR) as a professional field of study, explores the philosophical foundations of IR, and interrogates the sociological mechanisms through which scholarship is produced and the field is structured. Comprising 38 chapters from both established scholars and an emerging generation of innovative meta-theorists and theoretically driven empiricists, the handbook fosters discussion of the field from the inside out, forcing us to come to grips with the widely held perception that IR is experiencing an existential crisis quite unlike anything else in its hundred-year history. This timely and innovative reference volume reflects on situated scholarly practices in a way that projects our collective thinking into the future. PART ONE: THE INWARD GAZE: INTRODUCTORY REFLECTIONS PART TWO: IMAGINING THE INTERNATIONAL, ACKNOWLEDGING THE GLOBAL PART THREE: THE SEARCH FOR (AN) IDENTITY PART FOUR: INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AS A PROFESSION PART FIVE: LOOKING AHEAD: THE FUTURE OF META-ANALYSIS