Inadvertent Escalation

Author : Barry R. Posen
Publisher : Cornell University Press
ISBN 13 : 080146837X
Total Pages : 295 pages
Book Rating : 4.77/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Inadvertent Escalation written by Barry R. Posen and published by Cornell University Press. This book was released on 2014-01-13 with total page 295 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this sobering book, Barry R. Posen demonstrates how the interplay between conventional military operations and nuclear forces could, in conflicts among states armed with both conventional and nuclear weaponry, inadvertently produce pressures for nuclear escalation. Knowledge of these hidden pressures, he believes, may help some future decision maker avoid catastrophe.Building a formidable argument that moves with cumulative force, he details the way in which escalation could occur not by mindless accident, or by deliberate preference for nuclear escalation, but rather as a natural accompaniment of land, naval, or air warfare at the conventional level. Posen bases his analysis on an empirical study of the east-west military competition in Europe during the 1980s, using a conceptual framework drawn from international relations theory, organization theory, and strategic theory.The lessons of his book, however, go well beyond the east-west competition. Since his observations are relevant to all military competitions between states armed with both conventional and nuclear weaponry, his book speaks to some of the problems that attend the proliferation of nuclear weapons in longstanding regional conflicts. Optimism that small and medium nuclear powers can easily achieve "stable" nuclear balances is, he believes, unwarranted.

Author : Forrest E. Morgan
Publisher : Rand Corporation
ISBN 13 : 0833046365
Total Pages : 275 pages
Book Rating : 4.69/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Dangerous Thresholds written by Forrest E. Morgan and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2008-07-29 with total page 275 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Escalation is a natural tendency in any form of human competition, and today's security environment demands that the United States be prepared for a host of escalatory threats. This analysis of escalation dynamics and approaches to escalation management draws on a range of historical examples from World War I to the struggle against global Jihad to inform escalation-related decisionmaking.

Author : Barry R. Posen
Publisher : Cornell University Press
ISBN 13 : 0801470862
Total Pages : 181 pages
Book Rating : 4.68/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Restraint written by Barry R. Posen and published by Cornell University Press. This book was released on 2014-06-03 with total page 181 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The United States, Barry R. Posen argues in Restraint, has grown incapable of moderating its ambitions in international politics. Since the collapse of Soviet power, it has pursued a grand strategy that he calls "liberal hegemony," one that Posen sees as unnecessary, counterproductive, costly, and wasteful. Written for policymakers and observers alike, Restraint explains precisely why this grand strategy works poorly and then provides a carefully designed alternative grand strategy and an associated military strategy and force structure. In contrast to the failures and unexpected problems that have stemmed from America’s consistent overreaching, Posen makes an urgent argument for restraint in the future use of U.S. military strength. After setting out the political implications of restraint as a guiding principle, Posen sketches the appropriate military forces and posture that would support such a strategy. He works with a deliberately constrained notion of grand strategy and, even more important, of national security (which he defines as including sovereignty, territorial integrity, power position, and safety). His alternative for military strategy, which Posen calls "command of the commons," focuses on protecting U.S. global access through naval, air, and space power, while freeing the United States from most of the relationships that require the permanent stationing of U.S. forces overseas.

Author : Bryan Frederick
Publisher : Rand Corporation
ISBN 13 : 1977411673
Total Pages : 120 pages
Book Rating : 4.79/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Escalation in the War in Ukraine written by Bryan Frederick and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2023-09-21 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report evaluates the potential for further escalation in the conflict in Ukraine, including the prospects for escalation to Russian nuclear use. The report is intended to inform U.S. and NATO policymakers as they consider how to avoid further escalation of the conflict while assisting Ukraine in its efforts to defeat the Russian invasion and to better inform the public debate around these issues.

Author : Oscar Jonsson
Publisher : Georgetown University Press
ISBN 13 : 1626167346
Total Pages : 200 pages
Book Rating : 4.46/5 ( download)

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Download or read book The Russian Understanding of War written by Oscar Jonsson and published by Georgetown University Press. This book was released on 2019-11-01 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book analyzes the evolution of Russian military thought and how Russia's current thinking about war is reflected in recent crises. While other books describe current Russian practice, Oscar Jonsson provides the long view to show how Russian military strategic thinking has developed from the Bolshevik Revolution to the present. He closely examines Russian primary sources including security doctrines and the writings and statements of Russian military theorists and political elites. What Jonsson reveals is that Russia's conception of the very nature of war is now changing, as Russian elites see information warfare and political subversion as the most important ways to conduct contemporary war. Since information warfare and political subversion are below the traditional threshold of armed violence, this has blurred the boundaries between war and peace. Jonsson also finds that Russian leaders have, particularly since 2011/12, considered themselves to be at war with the United States and its allies, albeit with non-violent means. This book provides much needed context and analysis to be able to understand recent Russian interventions in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, how to deter Russia on the eastern borders of NATO, and how the West must also learn to avoid inadvertent escalation.

Author : Todd Harrison
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN 13 : 1442280409
Total Pages : 88 pages
Book Rating : 4.03/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Escalation and Deterrence in the Second Space Age written by Todd Harrison and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2017-11-01 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: On October 4, 1957, the Soviet Union launched Sputnik 1, the first human-made object to orbit the Earth. Six decades later, space-faring nations face a much different space environment, one that’s more diverse, disruptive, disordered, and dangerous. Today’s space domain presents a number of asymmetries that differ from other domains, creating a deterrence environment with unique policy implications. Escalation and Deterrence in the Second Space Age, a report from the CSIS Aerospace Security Project, discusses the evolution of space as a contested domain, the changing threats to U.S. space systems, deterrence theory and its applications to the space domain, and findings from a space crisis exercise administered by CSIS in late 2016.

Author : Jeffrey A Larsen
Publisher : Stanford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0804790914
Total Pages : 309 pages
Book Rating : 4.18/5 ( download)

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Download or read book On Limited Nuclear War in the 21st Century written by Jeffrey A Larsen and published by Stanford University Press. This book was released on 2014-04-02 with total page 309 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These essays by nuclear policy experts provide “a speculative but serious and well-informed journey through a variety of scenarios and contingencies” (Foreign Affairs). Recent decades have seen a slow but steady increase in nuclear armed states, and in the seemingly less constrained policy goals of some of the newer “rogue” states in the international system. The authors of On Limited Nuclear War in the 21st Century argue that a time may come when one of these states makes the conscious decision that using a nuclear weapon against the United States, its allies, or forward deployed forces in the context of a crisis or a regional conventional conflict may be in its interests. They assert that we are unprepared for these types of limited nuclear wars and that it is urgent we rethink the theory, policy, and implementation of force related to our approaches to this type of engagement. Together they critique Cold War doctrine on limited nuclear war and consider a number of the key concepts that should govern our approach to limited nuclear conflict in the future. These include identifying the factors likely to lead to limited nuclear war; examining the geopolitics of future conflict scenarios that might lead to small-scale nuclear use; and assessing strategies for crisis management and escalation control. Finally, they consider a range of strategies and operational concepts for countering, controlling, or containing limited nuclear war. “A series of trenchant essays that deconstruct a critical national security challenge that most of us wish did not exist. Assembling a star-studded cast of scholars, analysts, and policy practitioners, Larsen and Kartchner have produced some of the most important new thinking on an old topic.” —H-Diplo

Author : Patricia Lewis
Publisher : Chatham House Publishers
ISBN 13 : 9781784130145
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.41/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Too Close for Comfort written by Patricia Lewis and published by Chatham House Publishers. This book was released on 2014 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cases of near nuclear use due to misunderstanding demonstrate the importance of the human judgment factor in nuclear decisionmaking. This report applies a risk lens, based on factoring probability and consequence, to a set of cases of near use and instances of sloppy practices from 1962 to 2013.

Author : Antulio J. Echevarria II
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1107091977
Total Pages : 309 pages
Book Rating : 4.79/5 ( download)

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Download or read book War's Logic written by Antulio J. Echevarria II and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2021-02-18 with total page 309 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Surveys how American strategic theorists have understood the nature and character of war in the twentieth century.

Author : Erica D. Lonergan
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0197550886
Total Pages : 273 pages
Book Rating : 4.85/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Escalation Dynamics in Cyberspace written by Erica D. Lonergan and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2023 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To what extent do cyberspace operations increase the risks of escalation between nation-state rivals? Scholars and practitioners have been concerned about cyber escalation for decades, but the question remains hotly debated. The issue is increasingly important for international politics as more states develop and employ offensive cyber capabilities, and as the international system is increasingly characterized by emergent multipolarity. In Escalation Dynamics in Cyberspace, Erica D. Lonergan and Shawn W. Lonergan tackle this question head-on, presenting a comprehensive theory that explains the conditions under which cyber operations may lead to escalation. In doing so, they challenge long-held assumptions about strategic interactions in cyberspace, arguing that cyberspace is not as dangerous as the conventional wisdom might suggest. In some cases, cyber operations could even facilitate the de-escalation of international crises. To support their claims, Lonergan and Lonergan test their theory against a range of in-depth case studies, including strategic interactions between the United States and key rivals; a series of case studies of the role of cyber operations in international crises; and plausible future scenarios involving cyber operations during conflict. They then apply their analytical insights to policymaking, making the case that skepticism is warranted about the overall efficacy of employing cyber power for strategic ends. By exploring the role of cyber operations in routine competition, crises, and warfighting, Escalation Dynamics in Cyberspace presents nuanced insights about how cyberspace affects international politics.