Calibrating Macroprudential Policies In Europe Amid Rising Housing Market Vulnerability

Author : Ms. Laura Valderrama
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 46 pages
Book Rating : 4.75/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Calibrating Macroprudential Policies in Europe Amid Rising Housing Market Vulnerability written by Ms. Laura Valderrama and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-03-24 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Housing market developments are in the spotlight in Europe. Over-stretched valuations amid tightening financial conditions and a cost-of-living crisis have increased risks of a sustained downturn and exposed challenging trade-offs for macroprudential policy between ensuring financial system resilience and smoothing the macro-financial cycle. Against this backdrop, this paper provides detailed considerations regarding how to (re)set macroprudential policy tools in response to housing-related systemic risk in Europe, providing design solutions to avoid unintended consequences during a tightening phase, and navigating the trade-offs between managing the build-up of vulnerabilities and the macro-financial cycle in a downturn. It also proposes a novel framework to measure the effectiveness of tools and avoid overlaps by quantifying the risks addressed by different macroprudential instruments. Finally, it introduces a taxonomy allowing to assess a country’s macroprudential stance and whether adjustments to current policy settings are warranted—such as the relaxation of capital-based tools and possibly some borrower-based measures in the event of a more severe downturn.

Author : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 90 pages
Book Rating : 4.84/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Iceland written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-06-23 with total page 90 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Iceland has recovered from the shocks of recent years faster than envisaged and scarring from the pandemic is expected to be minimal. The recovery reflects pent-up demand from the pandemic, a rebound of the tourism industry, rapid immigration, and the fact that, unlike most European countries, Iceland experienced an improvement in its terms of trade in 2022. The economy is currently operating above potential. Absent an adjustment in policies, imbalances are likely to increase. Risks are tilted to the downside.

Author : Mr.Marco Arena
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513512250
Total Pages : 51 pages
Book Rating : 4.59/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Macroprudential Policies and House Prices in Europe written by Mr.Marco Arena and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-02-20 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Macroprudential policy in Europe aligns with the objective of limiting systemic risk, namely the risk of widespread disruption to the provision of financial services that is caused by an impairment of all or parts of the financial system and that can cause serious negative consequences for the real economy.

Author : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 46 pages
Book Rating : 4.28/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Ireland written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-12-15 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ireland: Selected Issues

Author : OECD
Publisher : OECD Publishing
ISBN 13 : 9264422412
Total Pages : 144 pages
Book Rating : 4.14/5 ( download)

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Download or read book OECD Economic Surveys: European Union and Euro Area 2023 written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2023-09-21 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The European recovery has been disrupted since the onset of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. Co-ordinated and timely policy action helped avoid a severe downturn, but the near-term outlook is clouded by uncertainty and downside risks. Monetary and fiscal policy need to become sufficiently restrictive to reduce underlying inflationary pressures durably.

Author : Mr.Jerome Vandenbussche
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475587449
Total Pages : 36 pages
Book Rating : 4.49/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Macroprudential Policies and Housing Price written by Mr.Jerome Vandenbussche and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-12-27 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Several countries in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe used a rich set of prudential instruments in response to last decade’s credit and housing boom and bust cycles. We collect detailed information on these policy measures in a comprehensive database covering 16 countries at a quarterly frequency. We use this database to investigate whether the policy measures had an impact on housing price inflation. Our evidence suggests that some—but not all—measures did have an impact. These measures were changes in the minimum CAR and non-standard liquidity measures (marginal reserve requirements on foreign funding, marginal reserve requirements linked to credit growth).

Author : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 149833055X
Total Pages : 66 pages
Book Rating : 4.58/5 ( download)

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Download or read book United Kingdom written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-07-29 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues paper focuses on the housing and business cycles in the United Kingdom. The UK housing cycle is highly volatile as a result of tight housing supply constraints and fluctuations in credit conditions. Housing supply-side constraints can be alleviated through changes to the planning system and tax reforms. The new National Planning Policy Framework introduced by the government is creating the incentives for local councils to increase available land for construction. There are early signs that this change in the planning system is contributing to the recovery in housing construction. Targeted macroprudential policies could address financial stability risks stemming from the housing market. Although mortgage credit as a share of gross domestic product has been declining in the current housing recovery, there are signs that there is a build-up of financial risks: loan-to-income ratios are increasing in London and among first time buyers.

Author : Ms. Laura Valderrama
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 47 pages
Book Rating : 4.82/5 ( download)

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Download or read book European Housing Markets at a Turning Point – Risks, Household and Bank Vulnerabilities, and Policy Options written by Ms. Laura Valderrama and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-03-24 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: European housing markets are at a turning point as the cost-of-living crisis has eroded real incomes and the surge in interest rates has made borrowers more vulnerable to financial distress. This paper aims to (i) shed light on the risks in European housing markets, (ii) quantify household vulnerabilties, (iii) assess banking sector implications and (iv) examine policies’ effectiveness using simulations based on microdata from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) and EU statistics on income and living conditions (EU-SILC). Under the baseline IMF macroeconomic forecast, the share of households that could struggle to meet basic expenses could rise by 10 pps reaching a third of all households by end 2023. Under an adverse scenario, 45 percent of households could be financially stretched, representing over 40 percent of mortgage debt and 45 percent of consumer debt. The impact on the banking sector seems contained under the baseline forecast, though there are pockets of vulnerability. A 20 percent house price correction could deplete CET1 capital by 100-300 basis points. Fiscal measures, such as subsidies to the bottom income tercile, could save 7 percent of households from financial distress at an estimated cost of 0.8 percent of GDP.

Author : Lucyna Gornicka
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781513554471
Total Pages : 54 pages
Book Rating : 4.76/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Stress Testing and Calibration of Macroprudential Policy Tools written by Lucyna Gornicka and published by . This book was released on 2020-08-14 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We present a semi-structural model of default risk, which is a function of loan and borrower characteristics, economic conditions, and the regulatory environment. We use this model to simulate bank credit losses for stress-testing purposes and to calibrate borrower-based macroprudential tools. The proposed approach is very flexible and is particularly useful when there is limited history of crisis episodes, when crises bring unanticipated shocks where past tail events offer little guidance and when structural shocks or changes in financial regulations have altered the loan default process. We apply the model to quantify mortgage lending risk in two distinct mortgage markets. For each application, we show a range of modeling adjustments that can be made to capture country-specific institutional features. The model uses bank portfolio data broken down by risk bucket and vintage, which enables us to take explicit account of the loan life cycle and to incorporate the housing and economic cycles. This feature facilitates a timely assessment of banks' loss-absorbing capacity and the buildup of systemic risk conditional on policy. It also enables counterfactual analysis and the evaluation of macroprudential policy interventions.

Author : Mr. Salim M. Darbar
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513500937
Total Pages : 41 pages
Book Rating : 4.35/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Experiences with Macroprudential Policy—Five Case Studies written by Mr. Salim M. Darbar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-06-19 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents case studies of macroprudential policy in five jurisdictions (Hong Kong SAR, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Singapore, and Sweden). The case studies describe the institutional framework, its evolution, the use of macroprudential tools, and the circumstances under which the tools have been used. The paper shows how macroprudential policy is conducted under a heterogeneous set of institutional frameworks. In all cases macroprudential tools have been used to address risks in the housing market. In addition, some of them have moved to enhance the resilience of their banks to more general cyclical and structural risks.