Aggregate Fluctuations From Independent Sectoral Shocks

Author : Per Bak
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 56 pages
Book Rating : 4.64/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Aggregate Fluctuations from Independent Sectoral Shocks written by Per Bak and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper illustrates how fluctuations in aggregate economic activity can result from many small, independent shocks to individual sectors. The effects of the small independent shocks fail to cancel in the aggregate due to the presence of two non-standard assumptions: local interaction between productive units (linked by supply relationships), and non-convex technology. We also argue that neither feature on its own would suffice. In the case of a simple model, we explicitly calculate the distribution of aggregate activity in the limit of an infinite number of independently disturbed sectors.

Author : Mr. Francesco Grigoli
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1616354895
Total Pages : 20 pages
Book Rating : 4.93/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Idiosyncratic Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations in an Emerging Market written by Mr. Francesco Grigoli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-12-10 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides the first assessment of the contribution of idiosyncratic shocks to aggregate fluctuations in an emerging market using confidential data on the universe of Chilean firms. We find that idiosyncratic shocks account for more than 40 percent of the volatility of aggregate sales. Although quite large, this contribution is smaller than documented in previous studies based on advanced economies, despite a higher degree of market concentration in Chile.We show that this finding is explained by larger firms being less volatile and by weaker propagation effects across Chilean firms.

Author : Mr.Pau Rabanal
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451875657
Total Pages : 68 pages
Book Rating : 4.52/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations written by Mr.Pau Rabanal and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2004-12-01 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Our answer: Not so well. We reached that conclusion after reviewing recent research on the role of technology as a source of economic fluctuations. The bulk of the evidence suggests a limited role for aggregate technology shocks, pointing instead to demand factors as the main force behind the strong positive comovement between output and labor input measures.

Author : MissNan Li
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484354583
Total Pages : 52 pages
Book Rating : 4.82/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Real Sectoral Spillovers: A Dynamic Factor Analysis of the Great Recession written by MissNan Li and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-05-09 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies changes in the transmission of common versus sectoral idiosyncratic shocks across different U.S. nonfarm business sectors during the Great Recession, and evaluates the cross-sectoral spillovers. Shocks are identified by dynamic factor methods. We find that the Great Recession is largely a time of heightened impact of common shocks— which accounts for 3/4 of aggregate volatility—and large spillovers of negative financerelated shocks. Moreover, in contrast with the earlier literature that failed to find a significant role of sectoral shocks (propagated through the input-output linkages across sectors) in driving variability in aggregate industry output, this study allows spillovers of shocks to operate through other mechanisms intertemporally. We find that prior to the recession the majority of aggregate fluctuations is explained by sector-specific shocks.

Author : Sangyup Choi
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498356303
Total Pages : 26 pages
Book Rating : 4.05/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Uncertainty and Unemployment written by Sangyup Choi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-02-23 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and sectoral channels. Using S&P500 data from the first quarter of 1957 to third quarter of 2014, we construct separate indices to measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with the impact dissipating within a year. In contrast, sectoral uncertainty has a long-lived impact on unemployment, with the peak impact occurring after two years. The results are consistent with a view that the impact of aggregate uncertainty occurs through a “wait-and-see” mechanism while increased sectoral uncertainty raises unemployment by requiring greater reallocation across sectors.

Author : James H. Stock
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226774740
Total Pages : 350 pages
Book Rating : 4.49/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting written by James H. Stock and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The inability of forecasters to predict accurately the 1990-1991 recession emphasizes the need for better ways for charting the course of the economy. In this volume, leading economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time series analysis.

Author : Ms.Valerie Cerra
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513536990
Total Pages : 50 pages
Book Rating : 4.96/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

Author : Theodore Mariolis
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 4431550046
Total Pages : 242 pages
Book Rating : 4.44/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Modern Classical Economics and Reality written by Theodore Mariolis and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-01-13 with total page 242 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents an in-depth, novel, and mathematically rigorous treatment of the modern classical theory of value based on the spectral analysis of the price–profit–wage rate system. The classical theory is also subjected to empirical testing to show its logical consistency and explanatory content with respect to observed phenomena and key economic policy issues related to various multiplier processes. In this context, there is an examination of the trajectories of relative prices when the distributive variables change, both theoretically and empirically, using actual input–output data from a number of quite divers e economies. It is suggested that the actual economies do not behave like the parable of a one-commodity world of the traditional neoclassical theory, which theorizes the relative scarcities of “goods and production factors” as the fundamental determinants of relative prices and their movement. By contrast, the results of the empirical analysis are fully consistent with the modern classical theory, which makes the intersectoral structure of production and the way in which net output is distributed amongst its claimants the fundamental determinants of price magnitudes. At the same time, however, these results indicate that only a few vertically integrated industries (“industry core” or “hyper-basic industries”) are enough to shape the behaviour of the entire economy in the case of a disturbance. This fact is reduced to the skew distribution of the eigenvalues of the matrices of vertically integrated technical coefficients and reveals that, across countries and over time, the effective dimensions of actual economies are surprisingly low. Normal 0 false false false EN-US JA X-NONE />

Author : Mr. Rabah Arezki
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513590766
Total Pages : 54 pages
Book Rating : 4.69/5 ( download)

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Download or read book News Shocks in Open Economies written by Mr. Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores the effect of news shocks on the current account and other macroeconomic variables using worldwide giant oil discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output ? the delay between a discovery and production is on average 4 to 6 years. We first present a two-sector small open economy model in order to predict the responses of macroeconomic aggregates to news of an oil discovery. We then estimate the effects of giant oil discoveries on a large panel of countries. Our empirical estimates are consistent with the predictions of the model. After an oil discovery, the current account and saving rate decline for the first 5 years and then rise sharply during the ensuing years. Investment rises robustly soon after the news arrives, while GDP does not increase until after 5 years. Employment rates fall slightly for a sustained period of time.

Author : Mr.Christian H Ebeke
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484324803
Total Pages : 33 pages
Book Rating : 4.06/5 ( download)

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Download or read book The Granular Origins of Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Europe written by Mr.Christian H Ebeke and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-11-07 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the microeconomic origins of aggregate economic fluctuations in Europe. It examines the relevance of idiosyncratic shocks at the top 100 large firms (the granular shocks) in explaining aggregate macroeconomic fluctuations. The paper also assesses the strength of spillovers from large firms onto SMEs. Using firm-level data covering over 14 million firms and eight european countries (Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal and Spain), we find that: (i) 40 percent of the variance in GDP in the sample can be explained by idiosyncratic shocks at large firms; (ii) positive granular shocks at large firms spill over to domestic SMEs’ output, especially if SMEs’ balance sheets are healthy and if SMEs belong to the services and manufacturing sectors.