A Financial Conditions Index For South Africa

Author : Mr.Nombulelo Gumata
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475505450
Total Pages : 20 pages
Book Rating : 4.50/5 ( download)

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Download or read book A Financial Conditions Index for South Africa written by Mr.Nombulelo Gumata and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-08-01 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The main purpose of this paper is to construct a financial conditions index (FCI) for South Africa. The analysis extracts the index by applying two alternative approaches (principal component analysis and Kalman filter), which identify an unobservable common factor from a group of external and domestic financial indicators. The alternative estimated FCIs, which share a similar trajectory over time, seem to have a powerful predictive information for the near-term GDP growth (up to four quarters), and they outperform the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) leading indicator as well as individual financial variables. Their recent dynamics suggest that following a strong recovery in late-2009 and 2010, reflecting in part domestic factors such as systematic reductions in the policy rate, the rebound in real economic activity, and a benign inflationary environment, the financial conditions have deteriorated in recent months, though not as sharply as in end-2008. Given their relatively high predictive power regarding GDP growth, a further deterioration may imply that economic activity is likely to slow in the period ahead.

Author : Kirsten Thompson
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 278 pages
Book Rating : 4.84/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Essays on the Financial Conditions Index for South Africa written by Kirsten Thompson and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Author : International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484387724
Total Pages : 47 pages
Book Rating : 4.26/5 ( download)

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Download or read book South Africa written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-12-11 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues paper estimates the potential growth rate for South Africa using different methodologies. In line with existing studies and findings for other emerging markets, the paper finds that South Africa’s potential growth rate has declined in the post global financial crisis period. Though there is substantial uncertainty, South Africa’s potential growth is estimated to have fallen from an average of 3.5 to 4 percent during 2000–08 to 2.25 to 2.50 percent in 2010–14, implying that the output gap in 2014 would be between –0.5 and –1.3 percent of GDP.

Author : Giang Ho
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475540647
Total Pages : 16 pages
Book Rating : 4.42/5 ( download)

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Download or read book A Financial Conditions Index for Poland written by Giang Ho and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-12-19 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper constructs a financial conditions index for Poland to explore the link between financial conditions and real economic activity. The index in constructed by applying two complementary approaches—factor analysis and vector auto-regression approach. We evaluate the index’s forecasting performance against a composite leading indicator developed by the OECD. We found that the FCI is highly correlated with GDP growth, attesting to the importance of financial sector in Poland’s economy. In-sample and out-of-sample forecasting exercises indicate that the FCI can outperform the CLI in predicting near-term GDP growth.

Author : Asli Demirguc-Kunt
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 1464812683
Total Pages : 148 pages
Book Rating : 4.82/5 ( download)

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Download or read book The Global Findex Database 2017 written by Asli Demirguc-Kunt and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2018-04-19 with total page 148 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 2011 the World Bank—with funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation—launched the Global Findex database, the world's most comprehensive data set on how adults save, borrow, make payments, and manage risk. Drawing on survey data collected in collaboration with Gallup, Inc., the Global Findex database covers more than 140 economies around the world. The initial survey round was followed by a second one in 2014 and by a third in 2017. Compiled using nationally representative surveys of more than 150,000 adults age 15 and above in over 140 economies, The Global Findex Database 2017: Measuring Financial Inclusion and the Fintech Revolution includes updated indicators on access to and use of formal and informal financial services. It has additional data on the use of financial technology (or fintech), including the use of mobile phones and the Internet to conduct financial transactions. The data reveal opportunities to expand access to financial services among people who do not have an account—the unbanked—as well as to promote greater use of digital financial services among those who do have an account. The Global Findex database has become a mainstay of global efforts to promote financial inclusion. In addition to being widely cited by scholars and development practitioners, Global Findex data are used to track progress toward the World Bank goal of Universal Financial Access by 2020 and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. The database, the full text of the report, and the underlying country-level data for all figures—along with the questionnaire, the survey methodology, and other relevant materials—are available at www.worldbank.org/globalfindex.

Author : Mr.Jonathan F Manning
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513518348
Total Pages : 29 pages
Book Rating : 4.43/5 ( download)

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Download or read book A Financial Conditions Index for Greece written by Mr.Jonathan F Manning and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-10-02 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We construct a Financial Conditions Index (FCI) for Greece as a surveillance tool to quantify the degree of the stress in the financial sector. We use principal component analysis to capture the information content of several financial indicators through a single index. We also construct an alternative FCI by purging the business cycle and monetary policy effects on the input variables, and argue that this alternative index is a better indicator of exogenous financial shocks, and thus could be interpreted as a measure of the efficacy of transmission mechanism. We replicate the index for the euro area (EA) as a whole and show that although the developments in the EA were qualitatively in line with those in Greece, they were quantitatively much milder. Our results confirm that monetary transmission was less effective in Greece compared to the EA as a whole. Finally, we argue that our index can be a potentially useful forecasting tool for credit growth.

Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498324029
Total Pages : 109 pages
Book Rating : 4.21/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Global Financial Stability Report, October 2019 written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-10-16 with total page 109 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The October 2019 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) identifies the current key vulnerabilities in the global financial system as the rise in corporate debt burdens, increasing holdings of riskier and more illiquid assets by institutional investors, and growing reliance on external borrowing by emerging and frontier market economies. The report proposes that policymakers mitigate these risks through stricter supervisory and macroprudential oversight of firms, strengthened oversight and disclosure for institutional investors, and the implementation of prudent sovereign debt management practices and frameworks for emerging and frontier market economies.

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513569678
Total Pages : 92 pages
Book Rating : 4.73/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Global Financial Stability Report, April 2021 written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-04-06 with total page 92 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Extraordinary policy measures have eased financial conditions and supported the economy, helping to contain financial stability risks. Chapter 1 warns that there is a pressing need to act to avoid a legacy of vulnerabilities while avoiding a broad tightening of financial conditions. Actions taken during the pandemic may have unintended consequences such as stretched valuations and rising financial vulnerabilities. The recovery is also expected to be asynchronous and divergent between advanced and emerging market economies. Given large external financing needs, several emerging markets face challenges, especially if a persistent rise in US rates brings about a repricing of risk and tighter financial conditions. The corporate sector in many countries is emerging from the pandemic overindebted, with notable differences depending on firm size and sector. Concerns about the credit quality of hard-hit borrowers and profitability are likely to weigh on the risk appetite of banks. Chapter 2 studies leverage in the nonfinancial private sector before and during the COVID-19 crisis, pointing out that policymakers face a trade-off between boosting growth in the short term by facilitating an easing of financial conditions and containing future downside risks. This trade-off may be amplified by the existing high and rapidly building leverage, increasing downside risks to future growth. The appropriate timing for deployment of macroprudential tools should be country-specific, depending on the pace of recovery, vulnerabilities, and policy tools available. Chapter 3 turns to the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the commercial real estate sector. While there is little evidence of large price misalignments at the onset of the pandemic, signs of overvaluation have now emerged in some economies. Misalignments in commercial real estate prices, especially if they interact with other vulnerabilities, increase downside risks to future growth due to the possibility of sharp price corrections.

Author : International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498311997
Total Pages : 41 pages
Book Rating : 4.91/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Mauritius written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-04-29 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues paper develops a Financial Conditions Index (FCI) for Mauritius—an instrument to gauge the operational state of the financial sector and predict real economy activity. The evolution of Mauritius’ financial services sector has been supported by a vibrant offshore corporate sector. Given the strong macro-financial linkages, it is imperative to closely monitor domestic financial developments. Financial developments are broader than monetary developments depicting money supply and interest rates. The FCI is a robust predictor of real GDP growth in Mauritius. The FCI can also help inform macroprudential policy decisions. Decisions on setting the countercyclical capital buffer of Basel III could be informed by analyzing developments in the FCI. As historically Mauritius has not experienced drastic swings in financial credit, testing the constructed FCIs for predicting boom-bust episodes is difficult. Nevertheless, the FCI signaled lax financial conditions in 2009 and again in 2012 that likely contributed to accelerated credit growth in 2012–2013 and a subsequent acceleration in nonperforming loans during 2014–2016.

Author : World Bank
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 1464814414
Total Pages : 241 pages
Book Rating : 4.19/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Doing Business 2020 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2019-11-21 with total page 241 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seventeen in a series of annual reports comparing business regulation in 190 economies, Doing Business 2020 measures aspects of regulation affecting 10 areas of everyday business activity.