Uncertainty Propagation And Importance Measure Assessment

Author : Enrico Zio
Publisher : FonCSI
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 69 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Download or read book Uncertainty propagation and importance measure assessment written by Enrico Zio and published by FonCSI. This book was released on 2013-12-14 with total page 69 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors investigate the effects that different representations of epistemic uncertainty have on practical risk assessment problems. Two different application problems are considered: 1. the estimation of component importance measures in the presence of epistemic uncertainties; 2. the propagation of uncertainties through a risk flooding model. The focus is on the epistemic uncertainty affecting the parameters of the models that describe the components’ failures due to incomplete knowledge of their values. This epistemic uncertainty is represented using probability distributions when sufficient data is available for statistical analysis, and by possibility distributions when the information available to define the parameters’ values comes from experts, in the form of imprecise quantitative statements or judgments. Three case studies of increasing complexity are presented:  a pedagogical example of importance measure assessment on a three-component system from the literature;  assessment of importance measures for the auxiliary feed water system of a nuclear pressurized water reactor;  an application in environmental modelling, with an analysis of uncertainty propagation in a hydraulic model for the risk-based design of a flood protection dike.

Author : Terje Aven
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118763068
Total Pages : 152 pages
Book Rating : 4.63/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Uncertainty in Risk Assessment written by Terje Aven and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-12-17 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explores methods for the representation and treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment In providing guidance for practical decision-making situations concerning high-consequence technologies (e.g., nuclear, oil and gas, transport, etc.), the theories and methods studied in Uncertainty in Risk Assessment have wide-ranging applications from engineering and medicine to environmental impacts and natural disasters, security, and financial risk management. The main focus, however, is on engineering applications. While requiring some fundamental background in risk assessment, as well as a basic knowledge of probability theory and statistics, Uncertainty in Risk Assessment can be read profitably by a broad audience of professionals in the field, including researchers and graduate students on courses within risk analysis, statistics, engineering, and the physical sciences. Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Illustrates the need for seeing beyond probability to represent uncertainties in risk assessment contexts. Provides simple explanations (supported by straightforward numerical examples) of the meaning of different types of probabilities, including interval probabilities, and the fundamentals of possibility theory and evidence theory. Offers guidance on when to use probability and when to use an alternative representation of uncertainty. Presents and discusses methods for the representation and characterization of uncertainty in risk assessment. Uses examples to clearly illustrate ideas and concepts.

Author : Enrico Zio
Publisher : FonCSI
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 61 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Download or read book Literature review of methods for representing uncertainty written by Enrico Zio and published by FonCSI. This book was released on 2013-03-01 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This document provides a critical review of different frameworks for uncertainty analysis, in a risk analysis context : classical probabilistic analysis, imprecise probability (interval analysis), probability bound analysis, evidence theory, and possibility theory. The driver of the critical analysis is the decision-making process and the need to feed it with representative information derived from the risk assessment, to robustly support the decision. Technical details of the different frameworks are exposed only to the extent necessary to analyze and judge how these contribute to the communication of risk and the representation of the associated uncertainties to decision-makers, in the typical settings of high-consequence risk analysis of complex systems with limited knowledge on their behaviour.

Author : Enrico Zio
Publisher : FonCSI
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 41 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Download or read book Possibilistic methods for uncertainty treatment written by Enrico Zio and published by FonCSI. This book was released on 2014-06-02 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors propose a method for assessing the performance of a maintenance policy whilst accounting for uncertainty in various parameters of the degradation model. The method is appropriate for the representation and propagation of epistemic uncertainty which is elicited from an expert, who can provide a family of confidence intervals for each uncertain parameter. Information elicited from the expert is described using possibility distributions and propagated through the degradation model using fuzzy random variables and the Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence. In classical approaches to uncertainty propagation based on probability theory, probability distributions are used to represent information obtained from experts. However, expert judgment is often expressed using imprecise linguistic statements, and the imposition of specific probability distributions over-constrains this uncertain information in a arbitrary and unjustified manner. Possibility theory allows the epistemic uncertainty arising from expert opinion to be represented in an arguably more rigorous manner, without introducing additional bias. A practical case study concerning the maintenance of a check valve of a turbo-pump lubricating system in a nuclear power plant illustrates the method. A rupture failure model caused by fatigue is modeled, and a Condition-Based Maintenance policy is applied to the component over a fixed time horizon. The performance of the maintenance policy is assessed in terms of cost and component unavailability.

Author : Ronald J. Adrian
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 0521440084
Total Pages : 585 pages
Book Rating : 4.80/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Particle Image Velocimetry written by Ronald J. Adrian and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2011 with total page 585 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Particle image velocimetry, or PIV, refers to a class of methods used in experimental fluid mechanics to determine instantaneous fields of the vector velocity by measuring the displacements of numerous fine particles that accurately follow the motion of the fluid. Although the concept of measuring particle displacements is simple in essence, the factors that need to be addressed to design and implement PIV systems that achieve reliable, accurate, and fast measurements and to interpret the results are surprisingly numerous. The aim of this book is to analyze and explain them comprehensively.

Author : Marvin Rausand
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118281101
Total Pages : 467 pages
Book Rating : 4.09/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Risk Assessment written by Marvin Rausand and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-06-12 with total page 467 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to risk assessment that utilizes key theory and state-of-the-art applications With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline the overall risk assessment process, and a discussion of accident models and accident causation offers readers new insights into how and why accidents occur to help them make better assessments. Risk Assessment Methods and Applications carefully describes the most relevant methods for risk assessment, including preliminary hazard analysis, HAZOP, fault tree analysis, and event tree analysis. Here, each method is accompanied by a self-contained description as well as workflow diagrams and worksheets that illustrate the use of discussed techniques. Important problem areas in risk assessment, such as barriers and barrier analysis, human errors, and human reliability, are discussed along with uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Each chapter concludes with a listing of resources for further study of the topic, and detailed appendices outline main results from probability and statistics, related formulas, and a listing of key terms used in risk assessment. A related website features problems that allow readers to test their comprehension of the presented material and supplemental slides to facilitate the learning process. Risk Assessment is an excellent book for courses on risk analysis and risk assessment at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It also serves as a valuable reference for engineers, researchers, consultants, and practitioners who use risk assessment techniques in their everyday work.

Author : Alan L Buchman
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1138001236
Total Pages : 3428 pages
Book Rating : 4.37/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Nutritional Care of the Patient with Gastrointestinal Disease written by Alan L Buchman and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2015-08-06 with total page 3428 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This evidence-based book serves as a clinical manual as well as a reference guide for the diagnosis and management of common nutritional issues in relation to gastrointestinal disease. Chapters cover nutrition assessment; macro- and micronutrient absorption; malabsorption; food allergies; prebiotics and dietary fiber; probiotics and intestinal microflora; nutrition and GI cancer; nutritional management of reflux; nutrition in IBS and IBD; nutrition in acute and chronic pancreatitis; enteral nutrition; parenteral nutrition; medical and endoscopic therapy of obesity; surgical therapy of obesity; pharmacologic nutrition, and nutritional counseling.

Author : Robert A. Fjeld
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119675405
Total Pages : 532 pages
Book Rating : 4.02/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Quantitative Environmental Risk Analysis for Human Health written by Robert A. Fjeld and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2023-08-29 with total page 532 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: QUANTITATIVE ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ANALYSIS FOR HUMAN HEALTH An updated edition of the foundational guide to environmental risk analysis Environmental risk analysis is a systematic process essential for the evaluation, management, and communication of the human health risk posed by the release of contaminants to the environment. Performed correctly, risk analysis is an essential tool in the protection of the public from the health hazards posed by chemical and radioactive contaminants. Cultivating the quantitative skills required to perform risk analysis competently is a critical need. Quantitative Environmental Risk Analysis for Human Health meets this need with a thorough, comprehensive coverage of the fundamental knowledge necessary to assess environmental impacts on human health. It introduces readers to a robust methodology for analyzing environmental risk, as well as to the fundamental principles of uncertainty analysis and the pertinent environmental regulations. Now updated to reflect the latest research and new cutting-edge methodologies, this is an essential contribution to the practice of environmental risk analysis. Readers of the second edition of Quantitative Environmental Risk Analysis for Human Health will also find: Detailed treatment of source and release characterization, contaminant migration, exposure assessment, and more New coverage of computer-based analytical methods A new chapter of case studies providing actual, real-world examples of environmental risk assessments Quantitative Environmental Risk Analysis for Human Health is must-have for graduate and advanced undergraduate students in civil engineering, environmental engineering, and environmental science, as well as for risk analysis practitioners in industry, environmental consultants, and regulators.

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 030904894X
Total Pages : 668 pages
Book Rating : 4.41/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1994-01-01 with total page 668 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The public depends on competent risk assessment from the federal government and the scientific community to grapple with the threat of pollution. When risk reports turn out to be overblownâ€"or when risks are overlookedâ€"public skepticism abounds. This comprehensive and readable book explores how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can improve its risk assessment practices, with a focus on implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. With a wealth of detailed information, pertinent examples, and revealing analysis, the volume explores the "default option" and other basic concepts. It offers two views of EPA operations: The first examines how EPA currently assesses exposure to hazardous air pollutants, evaluates the toxicity of a substance, and characterizes the risk to the public. The second, more holistic, view explores how EPA can improve in several critical areas of risk assessment by focusing on cross-cutting themes and incorporating more scientific judgment. This comprehensive volume will be important to the EPA and other agencies, risk managers, environmental advocates, scientists, faculty, students, and concerned individuals.

Author : John Robert Taylor
Publisher : Univ Science Books
ISBN 13 : 9780935702422
Total Pages : 327 pages
Book Rating : 4.23/5 ( download)

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Download or read book An Introduction to Error Analysis written by John Robert Taylor and published by Univ Science Books. This book was released on 1997-01-01 with total page 327 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Problems after each chapter