The Probabilistic Mind

Author : Nick Chater
Publisher : OUP Oxford
ISBN 13 : 0199216096
Total Pages : 535 pages
Book Rating : 4.93/5 ( download)

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Download or read book The Probabilistic Mind written by Nick Chater and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2008 with total page 535 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Probabilistic Mind is a follow-up to the influential and highly cited Rational Models of Cognition (OUP, 1998). It brings together developmetns in understanding how, and how far, high-level cognitive processes can be understood in rational terms, and particularly using probabilistic Bayesian methods.

Author : Mike Oaksford
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0198524498
Total Pages : 342 pages
Book Rating : 4.96/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Bayesian Rationality written by Mike Oaksford and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2007-02-22 with total page 342 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For almost 2,500 years, the Western concept of what is to be human has been dominated by the idea that the mind is the seat of reason - humans are, almost by definition, the rational animal. In this text a more radical suggestion for explaining these puzzling aspects of human reasoning is put forward.

Author : Raymond S. Nickerson
Publisher : Psychology Press
ISBN 13 : 113561461X
Total Pages : 798 pages
Book Rating : 4.14/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Cognition and Chance written by Raymond S. Nickerson and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2004-06-24 with total page 798 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Lack of ability to think probabilistically makes one prone to a variety of irrational fears and vulnerable to scams designed to exploit probabilistic naiveté, impairs decision making under uncertainty, facilitates the misinterpretation of statistical information, and precludes critical evaluation of likelihood claims. Cognition and Chance presents an overview of the information needed to avoid such pitfalls and to assess and respond to probabilistic situations in a rational way. Dr. Nickerson investigates such questions as how good individuals are at thinking probabilistically and how consistent their reasoning under uncertainty is with principles of mathematical statistics and probability theory. He reviews evidence that has been produced in researchers' attempts to investigate these and similar types of questions. Seven conceptual chapters address such topics as probability, chance, randomness, coincidences, inverse probability, paradoxes, dilemmas, and statistics. The remaining five chapters focus on empirical studies of individuals' abilities and limitations as probabilistic thinkers. Topics include estimation and prediction, perception of covariation, choice under uncertainty, and people as intuitive probabilists. Cognition and Chance is intended to appeal to researchers and students in the areas of probability, statistics, psychology, business, economics, decision theory, and social dilemmas.

Author : H. Fischbein
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9401018588
Total Pages : 221 pages
Book Rating : 4.86/5 ( download)

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Download or read book The Intuitive Sources of Probabilistic Thinking in Children written by H. Fischbein and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 221 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: About a year ago I promised my friend Fischbein a preface to his book of which I knew the French manuscript. Now with the printer's proofs under my eyes I like the book even better than I did then, because of, and influenced by, new experiences in the meantime, and fresh thoughts that crossed my mind. Have I been influenced by what I remembered from the manuscript? If so, it must have happened unconsciously. But of course, what struck me in this work a year ago, struck a responsive chord in my own mind. In the past, mathematics teaching theory has strongly been influenced by a view on mathematics as a heap of concepts, and on learning mathematics as concepts attainment. Mathematics teaching practice has been jeopardised by this theoretical approach, which in its most dangerous form expresses itself as a radical atomism. To concepts attainment Fischbein opposes acquisition of intuitions. In my own publications I avoided the word "intuition" because of the variety of its meanings across languages. For some time I have used the term "constitution of mathematical objects", which I think means the same as Fischbein's "acquisition of intuitions" - indeed as I view it, constituting a mental object precedes its conceptualising, and under this viewpoint I tried to observe mathematical activities of young children.

Author : Shane Parrish
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 0593719972
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.78/5 ( download)

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Download or read book The Great Mental Models, Volume 1 written by Shane Parrish and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2024-10-15 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discover the essential thinking tools you’ve been missing with The Great Mental Models series by Shane Parrish, New York Times bestselling author and the mind behind the acclaimed Farnam Street blog and “The Knowledge Project” podcast. This first book in the series is your guide to learning the crucial thinking tools nobody ever taught you. Time and time again, great thinkers such as Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett have credited their success to mental models–representations of how something works that can scale onto other fields. Mastering a small number of mental models enables you to rapidly grasp new information, identify patterns others miss, and avoid the common mistakes that hold people back. The Great Mental Models: Volume 1, General Thinking Concepts shows you how making a few tiny changes in the way you think can deliver big results. Drawing on examples from history, business, art, and science, this book details nine of the most versatile, all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making and productivity. This book will teach you how to: Avoid blind spots when looking at problems. Find non-obvious solutions. Anticipate and achieve desired outcomes. Play to your strengths, avoid your weaknesses, … and more. The Great Mental Models series demystifies once elusive concepts and illuminates rich knowledge that traditional education overlooks. This series is the most comprehensive and accessible guide on using mental models to better understand our world, solve problems, and gain an advantage.

Author : Rajesh P.N. Rao
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 9780262264327
Total Pages : 348 pages
Book Rating : 4.23/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Probabilistic Models of the Brain written by Rajesh P.N. Rao and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2002-03-29 with total page 348 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A survey of probabilistic approaches to modeling and understanding brain function. Neurophysiological, neuroanatomical, and brain imaging studies have helped to shed light on how the brain transforms raw sensory information into a form that is useful for goal-directed behavior. A fundamental question that is seldom addressed by these studies, however, is why the brain uses the types of representations it does and what evolutionary advantage, if any, these representations confer. It is difficult to address such questions directly via animal experiments. A promising alternative is to use probabilistic principles such as maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference to derive models of brain function. This book surveys some of the current probabilistic approaches to modeling and understanding brain function. Although most of the examples focus on vision, many of the models and techniques are applicable to other modalities as well. The book presents top-down computational models as well as bottom-up neurally motivated models of brain function. The topics covered include Bayesian and information-theoretic models of perception, probabilistic theories of neural coding and spike timing, computational models of lateral and cortico-cortical feedback connections, and the development of receptive field properties from natural signals.

Author : Sarah Moss
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0192510592
Total Pages : 224 pages
Book Rating : 4.94/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Probabilistic Knowledge written by Sarah Moss and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2018-02-16 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditional philosophical discussions of knowledge have focused on the epistemic status of full beliefs. Sarah Moss argues that in addition to full beliefs, credences can constitute knowledge. For instance, your 0.4 credence that it is raining outside can constitute knowledge, in just the same way that your full beliefs can. In addition, you can know that it might be raining, and that if it is raining then it is probably cloudy, where this knowledge is not knowledge of propositions, but of probabilistic contents. The notion of probabilistic content introduced in this book plays a central role not only in epistemology, but in the philosophy of mind and language as well. Just as tradition holds that you believe and assert propositions, you can believe and assert probabilistic contents. Accepting that we can believe, assert, and know probabilistic contents has significant consequences for many philosophical debates, including debates about the relationship between full belief and credence, the semantics of epistemic modals and conditionals, the contents of perceptual experience, peer disagreement, pragmatic encroachment, perceptual dogmatism, and transformative experience. In addition, accepting probabilistic knowledge can help us discredit negative evaluations of female speech, explain why merely statistical evidence is insufficient for legal proof, and identify epistemic norms violated by acts of racial profiling. Hence the central theses of this book not only help us better understand the nature of our own mental states, but also help us better understand the nature of our responsibilities to each other.

Author : Irving J. Good
Publisher : Courier Corporation
ISBN 13 : 0486474380
Total Pages : 353 pages
Book Rating : 4.80/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Good Thinking written by Irving J. Good and published by Courier Corporation. This book was released on 2009-11-18 with total page 353 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These sparkling essays by a gifted thinker offer philosophical views on the roots of statistical interference. A pioneer in the early development of computing, Irving J. Good made fundamental contributions to the theory of Bayesian inference and was a key member of the team that broke the German Enigma code during World War II. Good maintains that a grasp of probability is essential to answering both practical and philosophical questions. This compilation of his most accessible works concentrates on philosophical rather than mathematical subjects, ranging from rational decisions, randomness, and the nature of probability to operational research, artificial intelligence, cognitive psychology, and chess. These twenty-three self-contained articles represent the author's work in a variety of fields but are unified by a consistently rational approach. Five closely related sections explore Bayesian rationality; probability; corroboration, hypothesis testing, and simplicity; information and surprise; and causality and explanation. A comprehensive index, abundant references, and a bibliography refer readers to classic and modern literature. Good's thought-provoking observations and memorable examples provide scientists, mathematicians, and historians of science with a coherent view of probability and its applications.

Author : Kenji Doya
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 026204238X
Total Pages : 341 pages
Book Rating : 4.83/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Bayesian Brain written by Kenji Doya and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2007 with total page 341 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Experimental and theoretical neuroscientists use Bayesian approaches to analyze the brain mechanisms of perception, decision-making, and motor control.

Author : David Temperley
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262201666
Total Pages : 257 pages
Book Rating : 4.67/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Music and Probability written by David Temperley and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2007 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Exploring the application of Bayesian probabilistic modeling techniques to musical issues, including the perception of key and meter.