The Decline Effect

Author : Dean Brooks
Publisher : FriesenPress
ISBN 13 : 1039151876
Total Pages : 897 pages
Book Rating : 4.71/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book The Decline Effect written by Dean Brooks and published by FriesenPress. This book was released on with total page 897 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A crisis is coming for everyone who uses math and science. For decades now, the classical model of probability (the indifference principle and the Gaussian distribution) has been breaking down and revealing its limitations in fields from economics to epidemiology. Now a new approach has revealed the underlying non-classical principle behind all these 'anomalous' laws: — Pareto’s law of elite incomes — Zipf’s law of word frequencies — Lotka’s law of scientific publications — Kleiber’s law of metabolic rates — the Clausewitz-Dupuy law of combat friction — Moore’s law of computing costs — the Wright-Henderson cost law — Weibull’s law of electronics failures — the Flynn Effect in IQ scores — Benford’s law of digit frequencies — Farr’s law of epidemics — Hubbell’s neutral theory of biodiversity — Rogers’ law of innovation classes — Wilson’s law of island biogeography — Smeed’s law of traffic fatalities The general law behind all these particular laws (and countless others) is the "decline effect". As a system ages or grows in size, the rules of probability subtly change. Entropy increases, rare items become rarer, and average performance measures decline. The human meaning of a decline may be positive (decreasing costs, falling epidemic mortality) or negative (lower customer loyalty, decreasing efficiency), but the mathematical pattern is always the same. The implications are enormous, as these examples show: All epidemic diseases decline in infectiousness and in lethality. HIV-AIDS went from a highly infectious, 95-percent fatal disease, to a survivable condition with a latency of decades. COVID-19 went from a death rate of 7 percent in early 2020, to under 2 percent in 2022. Hereditary dynasties around the world declined smoothly in lifespan, from hundreds of years to tens of years. When democracies replaced monarchies, the decline (in spans of party control) continued.

Author : Dean Brooks
Publisher : FriesenPress
ISBN 13 : 1039151892
Total Pages : 897 pages
Book Rating : 4.95/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book The Decline Effect written by Dean Brooks and published by FriesenPress. This book was released on 2023-01-31 with total page 897 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A crisis is coming for everyone who uses math and science. For decades now, the classical model of probability (the indifference principle and the Gaussian distribution) has been breaking down and revealing its limitations in fields from economics to epidemiology. Now a new approach has revealed the underlying non-classical principle behind all these 'anomalous' laws: — Pareto’s law of elite incomes — Zipf’s law of word frequencies — Lotka’s law of scientific publications — Kleiber’s law of metabolic rates — the Clausewitz-Dupuy law of combat friction — Moore’s law of computing costs — the Wright-Henderson cost law — Weibull’s law of electronics failures — the Flynn Effect in IQ scores — Benford’s law of digit frequencies — Farr’s law of epidemics — Hubbell’s neutral theory of biodiversity — Rogers’ law of innovation classes — Wilson’s law of island biogeography — Smeed’s law of traffic fatalities The general law behind all these particular laws (and countless others) is the "decline effect". As a system ages or grows in size, the rules of probability subtly change. Entropy increases, rare items become rarer, and average performance measures decline. The human meaning of a decline may be positive (decreasing costs, falling epidemic mortality) or negative (lower customer loyalty, decreasing efficiency), but the mathematical pattern is always the same. The implications are enormous, as these examples show: All epidemic diseases decline in infectiousness and in lethality. HIV-AIDS went from a highly infectious, 95-percent fatal disease, to a survivable condition with a latency of decades. COVID-19 went from a death rate of 7 percent in early 2020, to under 2 percent in 2022. Hereditary dynasties around the world declined smoothly in lifespan, from hundreds of years to tens of years. When democracies replaced monarchies, the decline (in spans of party control) continued.

Author : Scott O. Lilienfeld
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118661044
Total Pages : 400 pages
Book Rating : 4.48/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book Psychological Science Under Scrutiny written by Scott O. Lilienfeld and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2017-01-03 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Psychological Science Under Scrutiny explores a range of contemporary challenges to the assumptions and methodologies of psychology, in order to encourage debate and ground the discipline in solid science. Discusses the pointed challenges posed by critics to the field of psychological research, which have given pause to psychological researchers across a broad spectrum of sub-fields Argues that those conducting psychological research need to fundamentally change the way they think about data and results, in order to ensure that psychology has a firm basis in empirical science Places the recent challenges discussed into a broad historical and conceptual perspective, and considers their implications for the future of psychological methodology and research Challenges discussed include confirmation bias, the effects of grant pressure, false-positive findings, overestimating the efficacy of medications, and high correlations in functional brain imaging Chapters are authored by internationally recognized experts in their fields, and are written with a minimum of specialized terminology to ensure accessibility to students and lay readers

Author : Anu Bradford
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0190088605
Total Pages : 368 pages
Book Rating : 4.06/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book The Brussels Effect written by Anu Bradford and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2020-01-27 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For many observers, the European Union is mired in a deep crisis. Between sluggish growth; political turmoil following a decade of austerity politics; Brexit; and the rise of Asian influence, the EU is seen as a declining power on the world stage. Columbia Law professor Anu Bradford argues the opposite in her important new book The Brussels Effect: the EU remains an influential superpower that shapes the world in its image. By promulgating regulations that shape the international business environment, elevating standards worldwide, and leading to a notable Europeanization of many important aspects of global commerce, the EU has managed to shape policy in areas such as data privacy, consumer health and safety, environmental protection, antitrust, and online hate speech. And in contrast to how superpowers wield their global influence, the Brussels Effect - a phrase first coined by Bradford in 2012- absolves the EU from playing a direct role in imposing standards, as market forces alone are often sufficient as multinational companies voluntarily extend the EU rule to govern their global operations. The Brussels Effect shows how the EU has acquired such power, why multinational companies use EU standards as global standards, and why the EU's role as the world's regulator is likely to outlive its gradual economic decline, extending the EU's influence long into the future.

Author : Jerald G. Bachman
Publisher : Psychology Press
ISBN 13 : 1135643881
Total Pages : 322 pages
Book Rating : 4.81/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book The Decline of Substance Use in Young Adulthood written by Jerald G. Bachman and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2014-04-04 with total page 322 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This bk is intended as a thoughtful extension to Bachman et al.'s well receivd LEA Monograph. In this bk the authors go on to examine WHY the changes documented in the first bk occur. Will appeal to scholars & professionls in psychology, sociology, famil

Author : Ugo Bardi
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319572075
Total Pages : 219 pages
Book Rating : 4.79/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book The Seneca Effect written by Ugo Bardi and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-08-22 with total page 219 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The essence of this book can be found in a line written by the ancient Roman Stoic Philosopher Lucius Annaeus Seneca: "Fortune is of sluggish growth, but ruin is rapid". This sentence summarizes the features of the phenomenon that we call "collapse," which is typically sudden and often unexpected, like the proverbial "house of cards." But why are such collapses so common, and what generates them? Several books have been published on the subject, including the well known "Collapse" by Jared Diamond (2005), "The collapse of complex societies" by Joseph Tainter (1998) and "The Tipping Point," by Malcom Gladwell (2000). Why The Seneca Effect? This book is an ambitious attempt to pull these various strands together by describing collapse from a multi-disciplinary viewpoint. The reader will discover how collapse is a collective phenomenon that occurs in what we call today "complex systems," with a special emphasis on system dynamics and the concept of "feedback." From this foundation, Bardi applies the theory to real-world systems, from the mechanics of fracture and the collapse of large structures to financial collapses, famines and population collapses, the fall of entire civilzations, and the most dreadful collapse we can imagine: that of the planetary ecosystem generated by overexploitation and climate change. The final objective of the book is to describe a conclusion that the ancient stoic philosophers had already discovered long ago, but that modern system science has rediscovered today. If you want to avoid collapse you need to embrace change, not fight it. Neither a book about doom and gloom nor a cornucopianist's dream, The Seneca Effect goes to the heart of the challenges that we are facing today, helping us to manage our future rather than be managed by it.

Author : Abdel Majid Farid
Publisher : Taylor & Francis
ISBN 13 : 1000622339
Total Pages : 169 pages
Book Rating : 4.31/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book The Decline of Arab Oil Revenues written by Abdel Majid Farid and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2022-06-01 with total page 169 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: First published in 1986, The Decline of Arab Oil Revenues explores the fall in the economic value of Arab oil reserves in the 1980s. Some of the threats to Arab countries include depletion of oil resources, rise of alternative sources of energy, international policies designed to control oil prices and growing conflicts of interest between producing and consuming countries. The editors suggest that any decline in oil revenues would negatively affect the economic, political, social and psychological structure of Arab societies since they are yet to explore non-oil sources of wealth. Consequently, the editors stress on the importance of researching the desert, which covers 94% of Arab lands, as a potential source of wealth. Given the current global shift towards sustainable forms of energy, this book is a timely reminder of the economic and political implications of such a shift on Arab countries for students of political science, international relations, geography, and economics.

Author : Jorge Alvarez
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484333039
Total Pages : 59 pages
Book Rating : 4.37/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book Firms and the Decline in Earnings Inequality in Brazil written by Jorge Alvarez and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-12-14 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We document a large decrease in earnings inequality in Brazil between 1996 and 2012. Using administrative linked employer-employee data, we fit high-dimensional worker and firm fixed effects models to understand the sources of this decrease. Firm effects account for 40 percent of the total decrease and worker effects for 29 percent. Changes in observable worker and firm characteristics contributed little to these trends. Instead, the decrease is primarily due to a compression of returns to these characteristics, particularly a declining firm productivity pay premium. Our results shed light on potential drivers of earnings inequality dynamics.

Author : United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Foreign Relations. Subcommittee on Foreign Economic Policy
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 324 pages
Book Rating : 4.25/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book The Decline of the Dollar written by United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Foreign Relations. Subcommittee on Foreign Economic Policy and published by . This book was released on 1978 with total page 324 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Author : Andrew Wallace Anderson
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 548 pages
Book Rating : 4.55/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book Preliminary Report on the Cause of the Decline of the Oyster Industry of the York River, Va written by Andrew Wallace Anderson and published by . This book was released on 1937 with total page 548 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: