The Adaptive Decision Maker

Author : John W. Payne
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521425261
Total Pages : 352 pages
Book Rating : 4.63/5 ( download)

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Download or read book The Adaptive Decision Maker written by John W. Payne and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1993-05-28 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Adaptive Decision Maker argues that people use a variety of strategies to make judgments and choices. The authors introduce a model that shows how decision makers balance effort and accuracy considerations and predicts which strategy a person will use in a given situation. A series of experiments testing the model are presented, and the authors analyse how the model can lead to improved decisions and opportunities for further research.

Author : John W. Payne
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 330 pages
Book Rating : 4.34/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Adaptive Decision Maker written by John W. Payne and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 330 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Author : Gary A. Klein
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 026225834X
Total Pages : 355 pages
Book Rating : 4.40/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Streetlights and Shadows written by Gary A. Klein and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2011-09-30 with total page 355 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An expert explains how the conventional wisdom about decision making can get us into trouble—and why experience can’t be replaced by rules, procedures, or analytical methods In making decisions, when should we go with our gut and when should we try to analyze every option? When should we use our intuition and when should we rely on logic and statistics? Most of us would probably agree that for important decisions, we should follow certain guidelines—gather as much information as possible, compare the options, pin down the goals before getting started. But in practice we make some of our best decisions by adapting to circumstances rather than blindly following procedures. In Streetlights and Shadows, Gary Klein debunks the conventional wisdom about how to make decisions. He takes ten commonly accepted claims about decision making and shows that they are better suited for the laboratory than for life. The standard advice works well when everything is clear, but the tough decisions involve shadowy conditions of complexity and ambiguity. Gathering masses of information, for example, works if the information is accurate and complete—but that doesn't often happen in the real world. (Think about the careful risk calculations that led to the downfall of the Wall Street investment houses.) Klein offers more realistic ideas about how to make decisions in real-life settings. He provides many examples—ranging from airline pilots and weather forecasters to sports announcers and Captain Jack Aubrey in Patrick O’Brian’s Master and Commander novels—to make his point. All these decision makers saw things that others didn’t. They used their expertise to pick up cues and to discern patterns and trends. We can make better decisions, Klein tells us, if we are prepared for complexity and ambiguity and if we will stop expecting the data to tell us everything. “I know of no one who combines theory and observation—intellectual rigor and painstaking observation of the real world—so brilliantly and gracefully as Gary Klein.” —Malcolm Gladwell, author of Outliers and Blink

Author : Francesco Sofo
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 146146708X
Total Pages : 126 pages
Book Rating : 4.83/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Adaptive Decision Making and Intellectual Styles written by Francesco Sofo and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-19 with total page 126 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ​This exciting publication provides the reader with a theoretical and practical approach to adaptive decision making, based on an appreciation of cognitive styles, in a cross-cultural context. The aim of this Brief is to describe the role of thinking-through different options as part of the decision-making process. Since cognitive style influences decision behavior, the book will first examine thinking styles, which involve both cognitive and emotive elements, as habits or preferences that shape and empower one’s cognition and emotion. The information contained in this Brief will be a useful resource to both researchers studying decision making as well as to instructors in the higher education sector and to human resource development practitioners, especially those working in international, multi-cultural companies.

Author : Michael J. Conroy
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470671742
Total Pages : 480 pages
Book Rating : 4.40/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Decision Making in Natural Resource Management written by Michael J. Conroy and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-03-18 with total page 480 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is intended for use by natural resource managers and scientists, and students in the fields of natural resource management, ecology, and conservation biology, who are confronted with complex and difficult decision making problems. The book takes readers through the process of developing a structured approach to decision making, by firstly deconstructing decisions into component parts, which are each fully analyzed and then reassembled to form a working decision model. The book integrates common-sense ideas about problem definitions, such as the need for decisions to be driven by explicit objectives, with sophisticated approaches for modeling decision influence and incorporating feedback from monitoring programs into decision making via adaptive management. Numerous worked examples are provided for illustration, along with detailed case studies illustrating the authors’ experience in applying structured approaches. There is also a series of detailed technical appendices. An accompanying website provides computer code and data used in the worked examples. Additional resources for this book can be found at: www.wiley.com/go/conroy/naturalresourcemanagement.

Author : Gary A. Klein
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262260867
Total Pages : 372 pages
Book Rating : 4.62/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Sources of Power written by Gary A. Klein and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1999-02-18 with total page 372 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Anyone who watches the television news has seen images of firefighters rescuing people from burning buildings and paramedics treating bombing victims. How do these individuals make the split-second decisions that save lives? Most studies of decision making, based on artificial tasks assigned in laboratory settings, view people as biased and unskilled. Gary Klein is one of the developers of the naturalistic decision making approach, which views people as inherently skilled and experienced. It documents human strengths and capabilities that so far have been downplayed or ignored. Since 1985, Klein has conducted fieldwork to find out how people tackle challenges in difficult, nonroutine situations. Sources of Power is based on observations of humans acting under such real-life constraints as time pressure, high stakes, personal responsibility, and shifting conditions. The professionals studied include firefighters, critical care nurses, pilots, nuclear power plant operators, battle planners, and chess masters. Each chapter builds on key incidents and examples to make the description of the methodology and phenomena more vivid. In addition to providing information that can be used by professionals in management, psychology, engineering, and other fields, the book presents an overview of the research approach of naturalistic decision making and expands our knowledge of the strengths people bring to difficult tasks.

Author : Panel on Modeling Human Behavior and Command Decision Making: Representations for Military Simulations
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309523893
Total Pages : 433 pages
Book Rating : 4.99/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Modeling Human and Organizational Behavior written by Panel on Modeling Human Behavior and Command Decision Making: Representations for Military Simulations and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1998-08-14 with total page 433 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Simulations are widely used in the military for training personnel, analyzing proposed equipment, and rehearsing missions, and these simulations need realistic models of human behavior. This book draws together a wide variety of theoretical and applied research in human behavior modeling that can be considered for use in those simulations. It covers behavior at the individual, unit, and command level. At the individual soldier level, the topics covered include attention, learning, memory, decisionmaking, perception, situation awareness, and planning. At the unit level, the focus is on command and control. The book provides short-, medium-, and long-term goals for research and development of more realistic models of human behavior.

Author : Gary A. Klein
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262534290
Total Pages : 356 pages
Book Rating : 4.91/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Sources of Power, 20th Anniversary Edition written by Gary A. Klein and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2017-09-15 with total page 356 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As seen in Malcolm Gladwell’s Blink—the modern, groundbreaking classic on effective decision making. How people really make decisions: by drawing on prior experience and using a combination of intuition and analysis. We have all seen images of firefighters rescuing people from burning buildings and paramedics treating bombing victims. How do these individuals make the split-second decisions that save lives? Most studies of decision making, based on artificial tasks assigned in laboratory settings, view people as biased and unskilled. In this modern classic, Gary A. Klein proposes a naturalistic approach to decision making, which views people as gaining experience that then enables them to use a combination of intuition and analysis to make decisions. To illustrate this approach, Klein tells stories of people—from pilots to chess masters—acting under such real-life constraints as time pressure, high stakes, personal responsibility, and shifting conditions. Since its publication, Sources of Power has been enormously influential. The book has sold more than 50,000 copies, has been translated into six languages, has been cited in professional journals that range from Journal of Marketing Research to Journal of Nursing, and is mentioned by Malcolm Gladwell in Blink. Author Gary Klein has collaborated with Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman and served on a team that redesigned the White House Situation Room to support more effective decision making. The model of decision-making Klein proposes in the book has been adopted in many fields, including law enforcement training and petrochemical plant operation.

Author : Drew Morgan Link
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.24/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Applications of Adaptive Decision Making under Risk in Health Contexts written by Drew Morgan Link and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Author : David Hardman
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1405123982
Total Pages : 246 pages
Book Rating : 4.83/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Judgment and Decision Making written by David Hardman and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2009-02-09 with total page 246 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Judgment and Decision Making is a refreshingly accessible text that explores the wide variety of ways people make judgments. An accessible examination of the wide variety of ways people make judgments Features up-to-date theoretical coverage, including perspectives from evolutionary psychology and neuroscience Covers dynamic decision making, everyday decision making, individual differences, group decision making, and the nature of mind and brain in relation to judgment and decision making Illustrates key concepts with boxed case studies and cartoons