Strategic Warning The Role Of Intelligence

Author : John A. Gentry
Publisher : Georgetown University Press
ISBN 13 : 1626166552
Total Pages : 289 pages
Book Rating : 4.54/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Strategic Warning Intelligence written by John A. Gentry and published by Georgetown University Press. This book was released on 2019-03-01 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: John A. Gentry and Joseph S. Gordon update our understanding of strategic warning intelligence analysis for the twenty-first century. Strategic warning—the process of long-range analysis to alert senior leaders to trending threats and opportunities that require action—is a critical intelligence function. It also is frequently misunderstood and underappreciated. Gentry and Gordon draw on both their practitioner and academic backgrounds to present a history of the strategic warning function in the US intelligence community. In doing so, they outline the capabilities of analytic methods, explain why strategic warning analysis is so hard, and discuss the special challenges strategic warning encounters from senior decision-makers. They also compare how strategic warning functions in other countries, evaluate why the United States has in recent years emphasized current intelligence instead of strategic warning, and recommend warning-related structural and procedural improvements in the US intelligence community. The authors examine historical case studies, including postmortems of warning failures, to provide examples of the analytic points they make. Strategic Warning Intelligence will interest scholars and practitioners and will be an ideal teaching text for intermediate and advanced students.

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 70 pages
Book Rating : 4.79/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Strategic Warning & the Role of Intelligence written by and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Author : Cynthia M. Grabo
Publisher : Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
ISBN 13 : 9781523464739
Total Pages : 188 pages
Book Rating : 4.39/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Anticipating Surprise written by Cynthia M. Grabo and published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform. This book was released on 2016-01-18 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book and its message could not be more relevant today. After World War II, the U.S. Intelligence Community's main objective was to understand the intentions and capabilities of the Communist threat. This meant a focus on the Soviet Union and its allies. Data on the number and capabilities of tanks, airplanes or ships in the inventory of the Warsaw Pact were not easy to come by, although somewhat easier to obtain than insight into the intentions of Communist leaders. A well-placed spy or satellite with a camera could yield some information but far from the whole picture. One of the most knowledgeable analysts who understood the importance of addressing both capabilities and intentions as a central part of the intelligence process was a woman-Cynthia Grabo. Intelligence analysis was dominated by men before, during, and after World War II. In this environment, Ms. Grabo stood out. Cynthia Grabo worked as an intelligence analyst for the U.S. government from 1942 to 1980. After graduating from the University of Chicago with undergraduate and graduate degrees, she was recruited by Army Intelligence shortly after Pearl Harbor. Although she served in various capacities during the war, from 1949 for the remainder of her career she specialized in strategic warning. Assigned to the interagency staff called the National Indications Center, she served as a senior researcher and writer for the U.S. Watch Committee throughout its existence (1950 to 1975), and for its successor organization the Strategic Warning Staff. It was during this time that Ms. Grabo recognized the need to capture the institutional memory associated with strategic warning. The viability of the U.S. intelligence system depends on analysts, collectors, humanists and technologists, all of whom must be willing in their assessments and creative work to share risks with appropriate intelligence consumers. Commanders and policymakers also promote the viability of the intelligence system if they allow analysts to fail, yet to continue their work. As Ms Grabo points out, the Intelligence Community must avoid treating the warning function as only a by-product of other intelligence production. To "work'' a warning problem is to anticipate events in their fullest political, military, economic, diplomatic and cultural context. If the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon came as a surprise because "nothing like that had ever happened before in the U.S., '' then the events truly echo those of December 1941. Now, the U.S. itself is highly subject to having indications analysis practiced against it. The historical experience of the U.S. in interpreting indications of conflict, as they are brought to light in this work, can help to make us more aware of the messages we may be conveying to potential adversaries in the international environment, and therefore preserve an element of surprise for ourselves. The 21st century brings a different world in many respects, but the principles of strategic warning analysis remain the same

Author : Cynthia M. Grabo
Publisher : Lulu.com
ISBN 13 : 1300078588
Total Pages : 188 pages
Book Rating : 4.86/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning written by Cynthia M. Grabo and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2012-08-12 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Assigned to the National Indications Center, Cynthia Grabo served as a senior researcher and writer for the U.S. Watch Committee throughout its existence (1950 to 1975), and in its successor, the Strategic Warning Staff. During this time she saw the need to capture the institutional memory associated with strategic warning. With three decades of experience in the Intelligence Community, she saw intelligence and warning failures in Korea, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Cuba. In the summer of 1972, the DIA published her "Handbook of Warning Intelligence" as a classified document, followed by two additional classified volumes, one in the fall of 1972 and the last in 1974. These declassified books have now been condensed from the original three volumes into this one. Ms. Grabo's authoritative interpretation of an appropriate analytic strategy for intelligence-based warning is here presented in a commercial reprint of this classic study. (Originally published by the Joint Military Intelligence College)

Author : John W. Bodnar
Publisher : Joint Military Intelligence College Center for Strategic Intelligence Research
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 208 pages
Book Rating : 4.35/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Warning Analysis for the Information Age written by John W. Bodnar and published by Joint Military Intelligence College Center for Strategic Intelligence Research. This book was released on 2003 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Looks at the challenges posed to the intelligence community by the changed strategic circumstances of the information age.

Author : Cynthia M. Grabo
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 192 pages
Book Rating : 4.84/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Anticipating Surprise written by Cynthia M. Grabo and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.73/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Strategic Warning & the Role of Intelligence written by and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Author : John Bodnar
Publisher : Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
ISBN 13 : 9781523464654
Total Pages : 208 pages
Book Rating : 4.58/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Warning Analysis for the Information Age written by John Bodnar and published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform. This book was released on 2016-01-18 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book bequeaths to the Defense Intelligence Agency, and to the Intelligence Community at large, a substantiated vision, with examples, of how analysts can exploit already-available, massive databases to tackle many of the most vexing problems that we face. Dr. Bodnar builds on the earlier work and insight of Cynthia Grabo, whose book "Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning" was recently published by the Joint Military Intelligence College's Center for Strategic Intelligence Research. The author also usefully integrates into this book the often-cited but rarely-seen original work of the USAF's strategic and operational philosopher Colonel John Boyd. Together with the accompanying, classified case studies that are available to the Community on Intelink, this book reaches farther than any other toward the objective of bringing together substantive expertise with an accessible, methodologically sound analytical strategy in the service of the U.S. Intelligence Community. Those who go on to apply this method will not only derive fresh understanding from existing data, but will also be able to guide future intelligence collection in an appropriately frugal fashion.

Author : John W. Bodnar
Publisher : Military Bookshop
ISBN 13 : 9781782662518
Total Pages : 208 pages
Book Rating : 4.10/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Warning Analysis for the Information Age written by John W. Bodnar and published by Military Bookshop. This book was released on 2013-08 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book bequeaths to the Defense Intelligence Agency, and to the Intelligence Community at large, a substantiated vision, with examples, of how analysts can exploit already-available, massive databases to tackle many of the most vexing problems that we face. Dr. Bodnar builds on the earlier work and insight of Cynthia Grabo, whose book Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning was recently published by the Joint Military Intelligence College's Center for Strategic Intelligence Research. The author also usefully integrates into this book the often-cited but rarely-seen original work of the USAF's strategic and operational philosopher Colonel John Boyd.

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.53/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Warning Analysis for the Information Age: Rethinking the Intelligence Process written by and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book bequeaths to the Defense Intelligence Agency, and to the Intelligence Community at large, a substantiated vision, with examples, of how analysts can exploit already-available, massive databases to tackle many of the most vexing problems that we face. Dr. Bodnar builds on the earlier work and insight of Cynthia Grabo, whose book Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning [ADA476752] was recently published by the Joint Military Intelligence College's Center for Strategic Intelligence Research. The author also usefully integrates into this book the often-cited but rarely-seen original work of the USAF's strategic and operational philosopher Colonel John Boyd. This book reaches farther than any other toward the objective of bringing together substantive expertise with an accessible, methodologically sound analytical strategy in the service of the U.S. Intelligence Community. Those who go on to apply this method will not only derive fresh understanding from existing data, but will also be able to guide future intelligence collection in an appropriately frugal fashion.