Spillovers From Chinas Growth Slowdown And Rebalancing To The Asean 5 Economies

Author : Allan Dizioli
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475528949
Total Pages : 35 pages
Book Rating : 4.47/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book Spillovers from China’s Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies written by Allan Dizioli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-08-20 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After many years of rapid expansion, China’s growth is slowing to more sustainable levels and is rebalancing, with consumption becoming the main growth driver. This transition is likely to have negative effects on its trading partners in the near term. This paper studies the potential spillovers to the ASEAN-5 economies through trade, commodity prices, and financial markets. It finds that countries with closer trade linkages with China (Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand) and net commodity exporters (Indonesia and Malaysia) would suffer the largest impact, with growth falling between 0.2 and 0.5 percentage points in response to a decline in China’s growth by 1 percentage point depending on the model used and the nature of the shock. The impact could be larger if China’s slowdown and rebalancing coincides with bouts of global financial volatility. There are also opportunities from China’s rebalancing, both in merchandise and services trade, and there is preliminary evidence that some ASEAN-5 economies are already benefiting from these trends.

Author : Allan Dizioli
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475554435
Total Pages : 33 pages
Book Rating : 4.34/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book Spillovers from the Maturing of China’s Economy written by Allan Dizioli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-11-15 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: China’s transition to a new growth model continues and the impact has been felt across the globe. Several trends contribute to the ‘maturing’ of China’s economy: i) structural slowing on the convergence path; ii) on-shoring deepening; and iii) demand rebalancing from investment towards consumption. In the short term, financial stress may lead to a cyclical slowdown. This paper discusses and quantifies spillovers to the global economy from these different developments. The analysis is undertaken using the APDMOD and G20MOD, both modules of the IMF’s Flexible System of Global Models. For plausible values of these developments, the overall impact on the global economy is not large. However, the impact on China’s closest trading partners and commodity exporters can be notable.

Author : Davide Furceri
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475546637
Total Pages : 15 pages
Book Rating : 4.37/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book China Spillovers written by Davide Furceri and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-11-23 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Until recently, China has been the leading contributor to global economic growth and—since the recent global financial crisis—a stabilizing driver of its evolution. However, as China recently began to rebalance its economy away from investment and exports and toward consumption, its GDP growth slowed significantly—partly reversing the country’s contribution to global output and trade growth—and is expected to continue to decline gradually over the medium term. There is little consensus regarding the consequences of a China’s growth slowdown for the rest of the world, with some arguing that a significant slowdown in China may have large implications and possibly lead to a worldwide recession if the “rebalancing” process is not well managed, and others suggesting that even a significant slowdown in China is unlikely to have large global effects, as its role in the world economy is still limited This note contributes to the ongoing debate by analyzing how growth shocks in China affect particular regions and country groups and how the impact and key transmission channels of these growth shocks have increased over time. It finds that historically, the average impact of growth shocks in China on global output has been statistically significant but limited, but since the early 2000s, the magnitude of spillovers has significantly increased. Trade linkages remain the main transmission channels, with larger effects for net commodity exporters and countries mostly exporting manufacturing goods. Also, spillover effects tend to be larger during periods of high global uncertainty and have been positively associated with an increase in the share of industry in total value in China, which suggests an important role of the “rebalancing” process.

Author : Gee Hee Hong
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475526601
Total Pages : 46 pages
Book Rating : 4.08/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book China and Asia in Global Trade Slowdown written by Gee Hee Hong and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-08-16 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Asia and China made disproportionate contributions to the slowdown of global trade growth in 2015. China’s import growth slowed starkly, driven by both external and domestic factors, including a rebalancing of demand. Econometric results point to weak investment and rebalancing as the main causes of the import slowdown. Spillover effects from China’s rebalancing are estimated for some 60 countries using value-added trade data, and are found to be more negative on Asia and commodity exporters than others.

Author : Allan Dizioli
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475524269
Total Pages : 35 pages
Book Rating : 4.60/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book Spillovers from China’s Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies written by Allan Dizioli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-08-09 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After many years of rapid expansion, China’s growth is slowing to more sustainable levels and is rebalancing, with consumption becoming the main growth driver. This transition is likely to have negative effects on its trading partners in the near term. This paper studies the potential spillovers to the ASEAN-5 economies through trade, commodity prices, and financial markets. It finds that countries with closer trade linkages with China (Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand) and net commodity exporters (Indonesia and Malaysia) would suffer the largest impact, with growth falling between 0.2 and 0.5 percentage points in response to a decline in China’s growth by 1 percentage point depending on the model used and the nature of the shock. The impact could be larger if China’s slowdown and rebalancing coincides with bouts of global financial volatility. There are also opportunities from China’s rebalancing, both in merchandise and services trade, and there is preliminary evidence that some ASEAN-5 economies are already benefiting from these trends.

Author : Mr.Athanasios Vamvakidis
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1455201766
Total Pages : 25 pages
Book Rating : 4.61/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book China’s Economic Growth written by Mr.Athanasios Vamvakidis and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-07-01 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents some facts on China’s role in the world economy and measures the impact of China’s growth on growth in the rest of the world in the short and long term. Short-run estimates based on VARs and error-correction models suggest that spillover effects of China’s growth have increased in recent decades. Long-term spillover effects, estimated through growth regressions based on panel data, are also significant and have extended in recent decades beyond Asia. The estimates are robust to the effects of global and regional shocks, changes in model specification, and sample period.

Author : Mr.Ashvin Ahuja
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475515057
Total Pages : 23 pages
Book Rating : 4.53/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book Investment-Led Growth in China written by Mr.Ashvin Ahuja and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-11-06 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past decade, China’s growth model has become more reliant on investment and its footprint in global imports has widened substantially. Several economies within China’s supply chain are increasingly exposed to its investment-led growth and face growing risks from a deceleration in investment in China. This note quantifies potential global spillovers from an investment slowdown in China. It finds that a one percentage point slowdown in investment in China is associated with a reduction of global growth of just under one-tenth of a percentage point. The impact is about five times larger than in 2002. Regional supply chain economies and commodity exporters with relatively less diversified economies are most vulnerable to an investment slowdown in China. The spillover effects also register strongly across a range of macroeconomic, trade, and financial variables among G20 trading partners.

Author : Rui Mano
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475557116
Total Pages : 38 pages
Book Rating : 4.14/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book Quantifying the Spillovers from China Rebalancing Using a Multi-Sector Ricardian Trade Model written by Rui Mano and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-11-27 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses the spillovers from different facets of China rebalancing using a calibrated Ricardian trade model that includes 41 economies, each consisting of 34 sectors. We find that China’s move up the value chain in particular has the potential for signficant spillovers – on the one hand, adversely affecting industrialized economies heavily involved in the Asia value chain, while at the same time generating positive spillovers to lower and middle income countries. The model’s strength lies in endogenously capturing production value chains and international trade of goods across sectors.

Author : Patrick Blagrave
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475539460
Total Pages : 18 pages
Book Rating : 4.62/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book Spillover Implications of China's Slowdown for International Trade written by Patrick Blagrave and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-09-27 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using a panel vector autoregression and a novel measure of export-intensity-adjusted final demand, this note studies spillovers from China’s economic transition on export growth in 46 advanced and emerging market economies. The analysis suggests that a 1 percentage point shock to China’s final demand growth reduces the average country’s export growth by 0.1–0.2 percentage point. The impact is largest in Emerging Asia, where an export-growth-accounting exercise suggests that China’s economic transition has reduced average export growth rates by 1 percentage point since early 2014. Other countries linked to China’s manufacturing sector, as well as commodity exporters, are also significantly affected. This suggests that trading partners need to adjust to an environment of weaker external demand as China completes its transition to a more sustainable growth model.

Author : Rui Mano
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475553749
Total Pages : 38 pages
Book Rating : 4.41/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book Quantifying the Spillovers from China Rebalancing Using a Multi-Sector Ricardian Trade Model written by Rui Mano and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-11-15 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses the spillovers from different facets of China rebalancing using a calibrated Ricardian trade model that includes 41 economies, each consisting of 34 sectors. We find that China’s move up the value chain in particular has the potential for significant spillovers – on the one hand, adversely affecting industrialized economies heavily involved in the Asia value chain, while at the same time generating positive spillovers to lower and middle income countries. The model’s strength lies in endogenously capturing production value chains and international trade of goods across sectors.