Risk Based Project Decisions In Situations Of High Complexity And Deep Uncertainty

Author : Yuri G. Raydugin
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 9783031569876
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.73/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Risk-Based Project Decisions in Situations of High Complexity and Deep Uncertainty written by Yuri G. Raydugin and published by Springer. This book was released on 2024-05-31 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book integrates for readers three areas of knowledge, pertaining to risk-based project decision making: project risk management (PRM), complexity theory, and decision-making under deep uncertainty (DMDU). Readers will appreciate that in practice, too often relevant complexity and uncertainty factors are either ignored or overlooked resulting in epic project failures. The author discusses a variety of methodologies and a decision-tree-type framework to determine why, when and how particular methodologies should be applied to ensure project success. These include nonlinear Monte Carlo techniques, a dynamic adaptive methodology to adapt to external environment changes, game theory for devising robust decision-making criteria, systems dynamics and cost escalation modelling, as well as risk-based & economic-based alternatives selection methodologies. This book will be an eye-opener for many PRM practitioners, helping to increase their chances of project success by properly handling inescapable project-complexity and deep-uncertainty implications in specific contexts.

Author : Yuri G. Raydugin
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3031569881
Total Pages : 399 pages
Book Rating : 4.83/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Risk-Based Project Decisions in Situations of High Complexity and Deep Uncertainty written by Yuri G. Raydugin and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on with total page 399 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Author : Chris Chapman
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 520 pages
Book Rating : 4.58/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Managing Project Risk and Uncertainty written by Chris Chapman and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2002-10-11 with total page 520 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This title confidently puts forward a practical, new approach to decision making in an uncertain business world. Many variables are accounted for and the authors are innovative in integrating previous types of decision-making approaches with a more fluid, and therefore realistic model that can be applied across a wide range of contexts and decisions. A new title on a important topic that not only stands well on its own, but also complements Chapman and Ward's previous title Project Risk Management. This book is practical and rigorous yet written in an engaging way. It is perfect for courses, or to be used by practitioners.

Author : Judith Curry
Publisher : Anthem Press
ISBN 13 : 1785278185
Total Pages : 217 pages
Book Rating : 4.81/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Climate Uncertainty and Risk written by Judith Curry and published by Anthem Press. This book was released on 2023-06-06 with total page 217 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: World leaders have made a forceful statement that climate change is the greatest challenge facing humanity in the 21st century. However, little progress has been made in implementing policies to address climate change. In Climate Uncertainty and Risk, eminent climate scientist Judith Curry shows how we can break this gridlock. This book helps us rethink the climate change problem, the risks we are facing and how we can respond to these challenges. Understanding the deep uncertainty surrounding the climate change problem helps us to better assess the risks. This book shows how uncertainty and disagreement can be part of the decision-making process. It provides a road map for formulating pragmatic solutions. Climate Uncertainty and Risk is essential reading for those concerned about the environment, professionals dealing with climate change and our national leaders.

Author : Raydugin, Yuri
Publisher : IGI Global
ISBN 13 : 152251791X
Total Pages : 504 pages
Book Rating : 4.17/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Handbook of Research on Leveraging Risk and Uncertainties for Effective Project Management written by Raydugin, Yuri and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2016-11-29 with total page 504 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The proper understanding and managing of project risks and uncertainties is crucial to any organization. It is of paramount importance at all phases of project development and execution to avoid poor project results from meager economics, overspending, reputation and environmental damage, and even loss of life. The Handbook of Research on Leveraging Risk and Uncertainties for Effective Project Management is a comprehensive reference source for emerging perspectives of managing risks associated with the execution and development of projects. Highlighting innovative coverage written by top industry specialists, such as complexity theory, psychological bias and risk management fallacies, probabilistic risk analysis, and various aspects of project decision making, this book is ideally designed for project and risk managers, project engineers, cost estimators, schedulers, safety and environmental protection specialists, corporate planners, financial and insurance specialists, corporate decision makers, as well as academics and lecturers working in the area of project management and students pursing PMP, PMI-RMP, ISO 31000, etc. certification.

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309180538
Total Pages : 124 pages
Book Rating : 4.35/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Completing the Forecast written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2006-10-09 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.

Author : Franco Caron
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 8847052440
Total Pages : 89 pages
Book Rating : 4.44/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Managing the Continuum: Certainty, Uncertainty, Unpredictability in Large Engineering Projects written by Franco Caron and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-05-24 with total page 89 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The brief will describe how to develop a risk analysis applied to a project , through a sequence of steps: risk management planning, risk identification, risk classification, risk assessment, risk quantification, risk response planning, risk monitoring and control, process close out and lessons learning. The project risk analysis and management process will be applied to large engineering projects, in particular related to the oil and gas industry. The brief will address the overall range of possible events affecting the project moving from certainty (project issues) through uncertainty (project risks) to unpredictability (unforeseeable events), considering both negative and positive events. Some quantitative techniques (simulation, event tree, Bayesian inference, etc.) will be used to develop risk quantification. The brief addresses a typical subject in the area of project management, with reference to large engineering projects concerning the realization of large plants and infrastructures. These projects are characterized by a high level of change, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity. The brief represents an extension of the material developed for the course Project Risk Analysis and Management of the Master in Strategic Project Management (Erasmus Mundus) developed jointly by Politecnico di Milano, Heriot Watt University (Edimburgh) and Umea (Sweden). The brief may be used both in courses addressing project management subjects and by practitioners as a guide for developing an effective project risk management plan.

Author : Hans J Pasman
Publisher : Butterworth-Heinemann
ISBN 13 : 0128009128
Total Pages : 458 pages
Book Rating : 4.23/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Risk Analysis and Control for Industrial Processes - Gas, Oil and Chemicals written by Hans J Pasman and published by Butterworth-Heinemann. This book was released on 2015-06-14 with total page 458 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk Analysis and Control for Industrial Processes - Gas, Oil and Chemicals provides an analysis of current approaches for preventing disasters, and gives readers an overview on which methods to adopt. The book covers safety regulations, history and trends, industrial disasters, safety problems, safety tools, and capital and operational costs versus the benefits of safety, all supporting project decision processes. Tools covered include present day array of risk assessment, tools including HAZOP, LOPA and ORA, but also new approaches such as System-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA), Blended HAZID, applications of Bayesian data analytics, Bayesian networks, and others. The text is supported by valuable examples to help the reader achieve a greater understanding on how to perform safety analysis, identify potential issues, and predict the likelihood they may appear. Presents new methods on how to identify hazards of low probability/high consequence events Contains information on how to develop and install safeguards against such events, with guidance on how to quantify risk and its uncertainty, and how to make economic and societal decisions about risk Demonstrates key concepts through the use of examples and relevant case studies

Author : In c. ABS Consulting
Publisher : Government Institutes
ISBN 13 : 0865879087
Total Pages : 225 pages
Book Rating : 4.89/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Principles of Risk-Based Decision Making written by In c. ABS Consulting and published by Government Institutes. This book was released on 2002-02 with total page 225 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Principles of Risk-Based Decision Making provides managers with the foundation for creating a proactive organizational culture that systematically incorporates risk into key decision-making processes. Based on methodology adopted by a number of organizations including the federal government, this book examines risk-based decision making as a process for organizing information about the possibility for unwanted outcomes in a simple, practical way that helps decision makers make timely, informed management choices that minimize harmful effects on safety and health, the environment, property loss, or mission success. Citing practical examples, charts, and checklists, the authors break the risk-based decision making process into five key components: establishing the decision structure, performing the risk assessment, managing sufficient risks, monitoring effectiveness of adopted risk controls through impact assessment, and facilitating risk communication. They examine each component in detail and outline available decision analysis and risk assessment tools that aid in each of these risk-based decision making functions. This book also walks readers through eight project management steps—from scoping a risk assessment to evaluating the recommendations—the components of each, and the importance of these steps to the success of a risk assessment. Special features include a table for applying the risk-based decision-making process, a hazard identification guidesheet, an example of human error, an acronym list, and a glossary.

Author : Zhaohan Sheng
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319619748
Total Pages : 492 pages
Book Rating : 4.43/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Fundamental Theories of Mega Infrastructure Construction Management written by Zhaohan Sheng and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-10-20 with total page 492 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fundamental Theories of Mega Infrastructure Construction Management: Theoretical Considerations from Chinese Practices is a collection of decades of research and applications of managing megaprojects using theories of complex systems and management sciences. It presents basic (classical) theory of megaproject management and is a showcase of more than 30 years of research of complex system and management sciences on the theory of megaproject management resulting from the integrating of theory and practice of megaprojects. The theory and models have undergone rigorous systematic testing during the management and implementation of megaprojects in China. Megaprojects are huge undertakings, often in infrastructure (bridges, tunnels, airports, etc.) that involve huge levels of investment, often take years to complete, and typically run into delays, cost overruns, and any number of unforeseen problems. Over the last few decades, no one country has undertaken more of these projects than China, and this book presents the fundamental theories underlying the practice of Mega Infrastructure Construction Management as practiced in China. Individual chapters provide a basic definition of Mega Infrastructure Construction and it’s management; an overview of the theories behind it; the Formation Path; basic concepts; fundamental principles; scientific problems; the Method System of Meta-synthesis; specialized methods in research; and intelligent management of Mega Infrastructure Construction. Although the theoretical construction management problems in this book are derived from construction practices in China, they can be applied universally and extended for great fundamental significance.