Risk Analysis Of Complex And Uncertain Systems

Author : Louis Anthony Cox Jr.
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 0387890149
Total Pages : 457 pages
Book Rating : 4.42/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain Systems written by Louis Anthony Cox Jr. and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-06-12 with total page 457 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain Systems acknowledged risk authority Tony Cox shows all risk practitioners how Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) can be used to improve risk management decisions and policies. It develops and illustrates QRA methods for complex and uncertain biological, engineering, and social systems – systems that have behaviors that are just too complex to be modeled accurately in detail with high confidence – and shows how they can be applied to applications including assessing and managing risks from chemical carcinogens, antibiotic resistance, mad cow disease, terrorist attacks, and accidental or deliberate failures in telecommunications network infrastructure. This book was written for a broad range of practitioners, including decision risk analysts, operations researchers and management scientists, quantitative policy analysts, economists, health and safety risk assessors, engineers, and modelers.

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 030904894X
Total Pages : 668 pages
Book Rating : 4.41/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1994-01-01 with total page 668 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The public depends on competent risk assessment from the federal government and the scientific community to grapple with the threat of pollution. When risk reports turn out to be overblownâ€"or when risks are overlookedâ€"public skepticism abounds. This comprehensive and readable book explores how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can improve its risk assessment practices, with a focus on implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. With a wealth of detailed information, pertinent examples, and revealing analysis, the volume explores the "default option" and other basic concepts. It offers two views of EPA operations: The first examines how EPA currently assesses exposure to hazardous air pollutants, evaluates the toxicity of a substance, and characterizes the risk to the public. The second, more holistic, view explores how EPA can improve in several critical areas of risk assessment by focusing on cross-cutting themes and incorporating more scientific judgment. This comprehensive volume will be important to the EPA and other agencies, risk managers, environmental advocates, scientists, faculty, students, and concerned individuals.

Author : Terje Aven
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118763068
Total Pages : 152 pages
Book Rating : 4.63/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Uncertainty in Risk Assessment written by Terje Aven and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-12-17 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explores methods for the representation and treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment In providing guidance for practical decision-making situations concerning high-consequence technologies (e.g., nuclear, oil and gas, transport, etc.), the theories and methods studied in Uncertainty in Risk Assessment have wide-ranging applications from engineering and medicine to environmental impacts and natural disasters, security, and financial risk management. The main focus, however, is on engineering applications. While requiring some fundamental background in risk assessment, as well as a basic knowledge of probability theory and statistics, Uncertainty in Risk Assessment can be read profitably by a broad audience of professionals in the field, including researchers and graduate students on courses within risk analysis, statistics, engineering, and the physical sciences. Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Illustrates the need for seeing beyond probability to represent uncertainties in risk assessment contexts. Provides simple explanations (supported by straightforward numerical examples) of the meaning of different types of probabilities, including interval probabilities, and the fundamentals of possibility theory and evidence theory. Offers guidance on when to use probability and when to use an alternative representation of uncertainty. Presents and discusses methods for the representation and characterization of uncertainty in risk assessment. Uses examples to clearly illustrate ideas and concepts.

Author : Xiangping Meng
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0128039582
Total Pages : 352 pages
Book Rating : 4.88/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Intelligent Coordinated Control of Complex Uncertain Systems for Power Distribution Network Reliability written by Xiangping Meng and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2015-11-12 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Intelligent Coordinated Control of Complex Uncertain Systems for Power Distribution and Network Reliability discusses the important topics revolving around the control of complex uncertain systems using the intelligent coordination control mechanism, a topic that has become the research focus of current control and computer fields. The book provides theoretical guidance for power distribution network reliability analysis, focusing on practical problems and algorithms within the field. Provides effective solutions for complex control systems Presents theoretical guidance for power distribution network reliability analysis Focuses on practical problems and algorithms

Author : Charles Yoe
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 0429667612
Total Pages : 816 pages
Book Rating : 4.19/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Principles of Risk Analysis written by Charles Yoe and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2019-01-30 with total page 816 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In every decision problem there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis science uses the best available evidence to assess what we know while it is carefully intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we do not know in the evaluation of decision choices and decision outcomes. The field of risk analysis science continues to expand and grow and the second edition of Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty responds to this evolution with several significant changes. The language has been updated and expanded throughout the text and the book features several new areas of expansion including five new chapters. The book’s simple and straightforward style—based on the author’s decades of experience as a risk analyst, trainer, and educator—strips away the mysterious aura that often accompanies risk analysis. Features: Details the tasks of risk management, risk assessment, and risk communication in a straightforward, conceptual manner Provides sufficient detail to empower professionals in any discipline to become risk practitioners Expands the risk management emphasis with a new chapter to serve private industry and a growing public sector interest in the growing practice of enterprise risk management Describes dozens of quantitative and qualitative risk assessment tools in a new chapter Practical guidance and ideas for using risk science to improve decisions and their outcomes is found in a new chapter on decision making under uncertainty Practical methods for helping risk professionals to tell their risk story are the focus of a new chapter Features an expanded set of examples of the risk process that demonstrate the growing applications of risk analysis As before, this book continues to appeal to professionals who want to learn and apply risk science in their own professions as well as students preparing for professional careers. This book remains a discipline free guide to the principles of risk analysis that is accessible to all interested practitioners. Files used in the creation of this book and additional exercises as well as a free student version of Palisade Corporation’s Decision Tools Suite software are available with the purchase of this book. A less detailed introduction to the risk analysis science tasks of risk management, risk assessment, and risk communication is found in Primer of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty, Second Edition, ISBN: 978-1-138-31228-9.

Author : Frank H. Knight
Publisher : Cosimo, Inc.
ISBN 13 : 1602060053
Total Pages : 401 pages
Book Rating : 4.50/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Risk, Uncertainty and Profit written by Frank H. Knight and published by Cosimo, Inc.. This book was released on 2006-11-01 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.

Author : Enrico Zio
Publisher : FonCSI
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 61 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Download or read book Literature review of methods for representing uncertainty written by Enrico Zio and published by FonCSI. This book was released on 2013-03-01 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This document provides a critical review of different frameworks for uncertainty analysis, in a risk analysis context : classical probabilistic analysis, imprecise probability (interval analysis), probability bound analysis, evidence theory, and possibility theory. The driver of the critical analysis is the decision-making process and the need to feed it with representative information derived from the risk assessment, to robustly support the decision. Technical details of the different frameworks are exposed only to the extent necessary to analyze and judge how these contribute to the communication of risk and the representation of the associated uncertainties to decision-makers, in the typical settings of high-consequence risk analysis of complex systems with limited knowledge on their behaviour.

Author : Cesar Ariel Pinto
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1000755657
Total Pages : 467 pages
Book Rating : 4.57/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Advanced Risk Analysis in Engineering Enterprise Systems written by Cesar Ariel Pinto and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2016-04-19 with total page 467 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the emerging discipline of engineering enterprise systems extends traditional systems engineering to develop webs of systems and systems-of-systems, the engineering management and management science communities need new approaches for analyzing and managing risk in engineering enterprise systems. Advanced Risk Analysis in Engineering Enterpri

Author : Stein Haugen
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1351174657
Total Pages : 3202 pages
Book Rating : 4.57/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World written by Stein Haugen and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2018-06-15 with total page 3202 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World collects the papers presented at the 28th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2018 in Trondheim, Norway, June 17-21, 2018. The contributions cover a wide range of methodologies and application areas for safety and reliability that contribute to safe societies in a changing world. These methodologies and applications include: - foundations of risk and reliability assessment and management - mathematical methods in reliability and safety - risk assessment - risk management - system reliability - uncertainty analysis - digitalization and big data - prognostics and system health management - occupational safety - accident and incident modeling - maintenance modeling and applications - simulation for safety and reliability analysis - dynamic risk and barrier management - organizational factors and safety culture - human factors and human reliability - resilience engineering - structural reliability - natural hazards - security - economic analysis in risk management Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World will be invaluable to academics and professionals working in a wide range of industrial and governmental sectors: offshore oil and gas, nuclear engineering, aeronautics and aerospace, marine transport and engineering, railways, road transport, automotive engineering, civil engineering, critical infrastructures, electrical and electronic engineering, energy production and distribution, environmental engineering, information technology and telecommunications, insurance and finance, manufacturing, marine transport, mechanical engineering, security and protection, and policy making.

Author : V.T. Covello
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1468453173
Total Pages : 523 pages
Book Rating : 4.71/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Uncertainty in Risk Assessment, Risk Management, and Decision Making written by V.T. Covello and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-08 with total page 523 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The subject of this volume--uncertainties in risk assessment and management--reflects an important theme in health, safety, and environ mental decision making. MOst technological hazards are characterized by substantial uncertainty. Recent examples include nuclear waste disposal, acid rain, asbestos in schools, carcinogens in food, and hazardous waste. realing with such uncertainty is arguably the most difficult and challeng ing task facing risk assessors and managers today. Four primary sources of uncertainty in risk assessment and management can be identified: (1) uncertainties about definitions; (2) uncertainties about scientific facts; (3) uncertainties about risk perceptions and atti tudes; and (4) uncertainties about values. Uncertainties about definitions derive primarily from disagreements about the meaning and interpretation of key concepts, such as probability. Uncertainties about scientific facts derive primarily from disagreements about failure modes, the probability and magnitude of adverse health or environmental consequences, cause and effect relationships, dose-response relationships, and exposure patterns. Uncertainties about risk perceptions and attitudes derive primarily from disagreements about what constitutes a significant or acceptable level of risk. Uncertainties about values derive primarily from disagreements about the desirability or worth of alternative risk management actions or conse quences. The papers in this volume address each of these sources of uncertainty from a variety of perspectives. Reflecting the broad scope of risk assess ment and risk management research, the papers include contributions from safety engineers, epidemiologists, toxicologists, chemists, biostatisticians, biologists, decision analysts, economists, psychologists, political scien tists, sociologists, ethicists, and lawyers.