Realistic Decision Theory

Author : Paul Weirich
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0190291117
Total Pages : 278 pages
Book Rating : 4.12/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book Realistic Decision Theory written by Paul Weirich and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2004-09-16 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Within traditional decision theory, common decision principles -- e.g. the principle to maximize utility -- generally invoke idealization; they govern ideal agents in ideal circumstances. In Realistic Decision Theory, Paul Weirch adds practicality to decision theory by formulating principles applying to nonideal agents in nonideal circumstances, such as real people coping with complex decisions. Bridging the gap between normative demands and psychological resources, Realistic Decision Theory is essential reading for theorists seeking precise normative decision principles that acknowledge the limits and difficulties of human decision-making.

Author : Paul Weirich
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780198038238
Total Pages : 278 pages
Book Rating : 4.32/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book Realistic Decision Theory written by Paul Weirich and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2004-09-16 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Within traditional decision theory, common decision principles -- e.g. the principle to maximize utility -- generally invoke idealization; they govern ideal agents in ideal circumstances. In Realistic Decision Theory, Paul Weirch adds practicality to decision theory by formulating principles applying to nonideal agents in nonideal circumstances, such as real people coping with complex decisions. Bridging the gap between normative demands and psychological resources, Realistic Decision Theory is essential reading for theorists seeking precise normative decision principles that acknowledge the limits and difficulties of human decision-making.

Author : Paul Weirich
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1107077796
Total Pages : 277 pages
Book Rating : 4.99/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book Models of Decision-Making written by Paul Weirich and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2015 with total page 277 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explains and justifies efficient general methods of making decisions and will guide practical efforts to streamline rational choice.

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.85/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book Realistic Decision Theory written by and published by . This book was released on with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Author : Arif Ahmed
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9781316641545
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.46/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book Evidence, Decision and Causality written by Arif Ahmed and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-02-02 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most philosophers agree that causal knowledge is essential to decision-making: agents should choose from the available options those that probably cause the outcomes that they want. This book argues against this theory and in favour of evidential or Bayesian decision theory, which emphasises the symptomatic value of options over their causal role. It examines a variety of settings, including economic theory, quantum mechanics and philosophical thought-experiments, where causal knowledge seems to make a practical difference. The arguments make novel use of machinery from other areas of philosophical inquiry, including first-person epistemology and the free will debate. The book also illustrates the applicability of decision theory itself to questions about the direction of time and the special epistemic status of agents.

Author : John L. Pollock
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0199838860
Total Pages : 280 pages
Book Rating : 4.68/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book Thinking about Acting written by John L. Pollock and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2006-07-27 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: John Pollock aims to construct a theory of rational decision making for real agents--not ideal agents. Real agents have limited cognitive powers, but traditional theories of rationality have applied only to idealized agents that lack such constraints. Pollock argues that theories of ideal rationality are largely irrelevant to the decision making of real agents. Thinking about Acting aims to provide a theory of "real rationality."

Author : John S. Hammond
Publisher : Harvard Business School Press
ISBN 13 : 9781633691049
Total Pages : 256 pages
Book Rating : 4.47/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book Smart Choices written by John S. Hammond and published by Harvard Business School Press. This book was released on 2015-08 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Where should I live? Is it time to get a new job? Which job candidate should I hire? What business strategy should I pursue? We spend the majority of our lives making decisions, both big and small. Yet, even though our success is largely determined by the choices that we make, very few of us are equipped with useful decision-making skills. Because of this, we often approach our choices tentatively, or even fearfully, and avoid giving them the time and thought required to put our best foot forward. In Smart Choices, John Hammond, Ralph Keeney, and Howard Raiffa--experts with over 100 years of experience resolving complex decision problems--offer a proven, straightforward, and flexible roadmap for making better and more impactful decisions, and offer the tools to achieve your goals in every aspect of your life. Their step-by-step, divide-and conquer approach will teach you how to: * Evaluate your plans * Break your potential decision into its key elements * Identify the key drivers that are most relevant to your goals * Apply systematic thinking * Use the right information to make the smartest choice Smart Choices doesn’t tell you what to decide; it tells you how. As you routinely use the process, you’ll become more confident in your ability to make decisions at work and at home. And, more importantly, by applying its time-tested methods, you’ll make better decisions going forward. Be proactive. Don’t wait until a decision is forced on you--or made for you. Seek out decisions that advance your long-term goals, values, and beliefs. Take charge of your life by making Smart Choices a lifetime habit.

Author : Yakov Ben-Haim
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0080465706
Total Pages : 384 pages
Book Rating : 4.08/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book Info-Gap Decision Theory written by Yakov Ben-Haim and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2006-10-11 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Everyone makes decisions, but not everyone is a decision analyst. A decision analyst uses quantitative models and computational methods to formulate decision algorithms, assess decision performance, identify and evaluate options, determine trade-offs and risks, evaluate strategies for investigation, and so on. Info-Gap Decision Theory is written for decision analysts. The term "decision analyst" covers an extremely broad range of practitioners. Virtually all engineers involved in design (of buildings, machines, processes, etc.) or analysis (of safety, reliability, feasibility, etc.) are decision analysts, usually without calling themselves by this name. In addition to engineers, decision analysts work in planning offices for public agencies, in project management consultancies, they are engaged in manufacturing process planning and control, in financial planning and economic analysis, in decision support for medical or technological diagnosis, and so on and on. Decision analysts provide quantitative support for the decision-making process in all areas where systematic decisions are made. This second edition entails changes of several sorts. First, info-gap theory has found application in several new areas - especially biological conservation, economic policy formulation, preparedness against terrorism, and medical decision-making. Pertinent new examples have been included. Second, the combination of info-gap analysis with probabilistic decision algorithms has found wide application. Consequently "hybrid" models of uncertainty, which were treated exclusively in a separate chapter in the previous edition, now appear throughout the book as well as in a separate chapter. Finally, info-gap explanations of robust-satisficing behavior, and especially the Ellsberg and Allais "paradoxes", are discussed in a new chapter together with a theorem indicating when robust-satisficing will have greater probability of success than direct optimizing with uncertain models. New theory developed systematically Many examples from diverse disciplines Realistic representation of severe uncertainty Multi-faceted approach to risk Quantitative model-based decision theory

Author : D.J. White
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1351523325
Total Pages : 196 pages
Book Rating : 4.25/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book Decision Theory written by D.J. White and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-02-06 with total page 196 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: All of human life may be seen as a process of decision-making, but it is only in recent years and in response to the needs of the large and complex organizations characterizing our society that this process has been subjected to scientifi c scrutiny. Out of this scrutiny-undertaken by a wide range of professionals in economics, administration, management, statistics, psychology, engineering, computer science, operations research, and systems analysis-there has begun to emerge a body of theory that has profound implications for improving practical decision-making. This book is the fi rst to bring together all the various aspects of decision theory into one cohesive treatment.

Author : Panel on Modeling Human Behavior and Command Decision Making: Representations for Military Simulations
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309523893
Total Pages : 433 pages
Book Rating : 4.99/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book Modeling Human and Organizational Behavior written by Panel on Modeling Human Behavior and Command Decision Making: Representations for Military Simulations and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1998-08-14 with total page 433 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Simulations are widely used in the military for training personnel, analyzing proposed equipment, and rehearsing missions, and these simulations need realistic models of human behavior. This book draws together a wide variety of theoretical and applied research in human behavior modeling that can be considered for use in those simulations. It covers behavior at the individual, unit, and command level. At the individual soldier level, the topics covered include attention, learning, memory, decisionmaking, perception, situation awareness, and planning. At the unit level, the focus is on command and control. The book provides short-, medium-, and long-term goals for research and development of more realistic models of human behavior.