Rational Choice Using Imprecise Probabilities And Utilities

Author : Paul Weirich
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1108604781
Total Pages : 139 pages
Book Rating : 4.89/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book Rational Choice Using Imprecise Probabilities and Utilities written by Paul Weirich and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2021-02-25 with total page 139 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An agent often does not have precise probabilities or utilities to guide resolution of a decision problem. I advance a principle of rationality for making decisions in such cases. To begin, I represent the doxastic and conative state of an agent with a set of pairs of a probability assignment and a utility assignment. Then I support a decision principle that allows any act that maximizes expected utility according to some pair of assignments in the set. Assuming that computation of an option's expected utility uses comprehensive possible outcomes that include the option's risk, no consideration supports a stricter requirement.

Author : Peter Gärdenfors
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780521333917
Total Pages : 449 pages
Book Rating : 4.11/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book Decision, Probability, and Utility written by Peter Gärdenfors and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 449 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision theory and the theory of rational choice have recently been the subjects of considerable research by philosophers and economists. However, no adequate anthology exists which can be used to introduce students to the field. This volume is designed to meet that need. The essays included are organized into five parts covering the foundations of decision theory, the conceptualization of probability and utility, pholosophical difficulties with the rules of rationality and with the assessment of probability, and causal decision theory. The editors provide an extensive introduction to the field and introductions to each part.

Author : Chrisoula Andreou
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1009211560
Total Pages : 101 pages
Book Rating : 4.67/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book Commitment and Resoluteness in Rational Choice written by Chrisoula Andreou and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2022-03-03 with total page 101 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Drawing and building on the existing literature, this Element explores the interesting and challenging philosophical terrain where issues regarding cooperation, commitment, and control intersect. Section 1 discusses interpersonal and intrapersonal Prisoner's Dilemma situations, and the possibility of a set of unrestrained choices adding up in a way that is problematic relative to the concerns of the choosers involved. Section 2 focuses on the role of precommitment devices in rational choice. Section 3 considers the role of resoluteness in rational choice and action. And Section 4 delves into some related complications concerning the nature of actions and the nature of intentions.

Author : Jordan Howard Sobel
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521416351
Total Pages : 396 pages
Book Rating : 4.53/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book Taking Chances written by Jordan Howard Sobel and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1994-04-29 with total page 396 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: J. Howard Sobel has long been recognized as an important figure in philosophical discussions of rational decision. He has done much to help formulate the concept of causal decision theory. In this volume of essays Sobel explores the Bayesian idea that rational actions maximize expected values, where an action's expected value is a weighted average of its agent's values for its possible total outcomes. Newcomb's Problem and The Prisoner's Dilemma are discussed, and Allais-type puzzles are viewed from the perspective of causal world Bayesianism. The author establishes principles for distinguishing options in decision problems, and studies ways in which perfectly rational causal maximizers can be capable of resolute choices. Sobel also views critically Gauthier's revisionist ideas about maximizing rationality. This collection will be a desideratum for anyone working in the field of rational choice theory, whether in philosophy, economics, political science, psychology or statistics. Howard Sobel's work in decision theory is certainly among the most important, interesting and challenging that is being done by philosophers.

Author : Edward J. R. Elliott
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1009401300
Total Pages : 105 pages
Book Rating : 4.02/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book The Measurement of Subjective Probability written by Edward J. R. Elliott and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2024-05-02 with total page 105 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Beliefs come in degrees, and we often represent those degrees with numbers. We might say, for example, that we are 90% confident in the truth of some scientific hypothesis, or only 30% confident in the success of some risky endeavour. But what do these numbers mean? What, in other words, is the underlying psychological reality to which the numbers correspond? And what constitutes a meaningful difference between numerically distinct representations of belief? In this Element, we discuss the main approaches to the measurement of belief. These fall into two broad categories-epistemic and decision-theoretic-with divergent foundations in the theory of measurement. Epistemic approaches explain the measurement of belief by appeal to relations between belief states themselves, whereas decision-theoretic approaches appeal to relations between beliefs and desires in the production of choice and preferences.

Author : Paul Weirich
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0190291117
Total Pages : 278 pages
Book Rating : 4.12/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book Realistic Decision Theory written by Paul Weirich and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2004-09-16 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Within traditional decision theory, common decision principles -- e.g. the principle to maximize utility -- generally invoke idealization; they govern ideal agents in ideal circumstances. In Realistic Decision Theory, Paul Weirch adds practicality to decision theory by formulating principles applying to nonideal agents in nonideal circumstances, such as real people coping with complex decisions. Bridging the gap between normative demands and psychological resources, Realistic Decision Theory is essential reading for theorists seeking precise normative decision principles that acknowledge the limits and difficulties of human decision-making.

Author : David R. Bickel
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3031119584
Total Pages : 112 pages
Book Rating : 4.83/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book Phylogenetic Trees and Molecular Evolution written by David R. Bickel and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-09-29 with total page 112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book serves as a brief introduction to phylogenetic trees and molecular evolution for biologists and biology students. It does so by presenting the main concepts in a variety of ways: first visually, then in a history, next in a dice game, and finally in simple equations. The content is primarily designed to introduce upper-level undergraduate and graduate students of biology to phylogenetic tree reconstruction and the underlying models of molecular evolution. A unique feature also of interest to experienced researchers is the emphasis on simple ways to quantify the uncertainty in the results more fully than is possible with standard methods.

Author : David Strohmaier
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1009192132
Total Pages : 166 pages
Book Rating : 4.32/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book Preference Change written by David Strohmaier and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2024-01-31 with total page 166 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For most of its history, decision theory has investigated the rational choices of humans under the assumption of static preferences. Human preferences, however, change. In recent years, decision theory has increasingly acknowledged the reality of preference change throughout life. This Element provides an accessible introduction and new contributions to the debates on preference change. It is divided into three chapters. In the first chapter, the authors discuss what preference change is and whether we can integrate it into decision theory. In the second chapter, they present models of preference change, including a novel proposal of their own. In the third and final chapter, they discuss how we can rationally choose a course of action when our preferences might change. Both the transformative experience literature and recent work on choosing for changing selves are discussed.

Author : Paul Weirich
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0190089423
Total Pages : 288 pages
Book Rating : 4.29/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book Rational Responses to Risks written by Paul Weirich and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2020-07-10 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Good decisions account for risks. For example, the risk of an accident while driving in the rain makes a reasonable driver decide to slow down. While risk is a large topic in theoretical disciplines such as economics and psychology, as well as in practical disciplines such as medicine and finance, philosophy has a unique contribution to make in developing a normative theory of risk that states what risk is, and to what extent our responses to it are rational. Weirich here develops a philosophical theory of the rationality of responses to risk. He first distinguishes two types of risk: first, a chance of a bad event, and second, an act's risk in relation to its possible outcomes. He argues that this distinction has normative significance in the sense that one's attitudes towards these types of risks - and how one acts on them - are governed by different general principles of rationality. Consequently, a comprehensive account of risk must not only characterize rational responses to risk but also explain why these responses are rational. Weirich explains how, for a rational ideal agent, the expected utilities of the acts available in a decision problem explain the agent's preferences among the acts. As a result, maximizing expected utility is just following preferences among the acts. His view takes an act's expected utility, not just as a feature of a representation of preferences among acts, but also as a factor in the explanation of preferences among acts. The book's precise formulation of general standards of rationality for attitudes and for acts, and its rigorous argumentation for these standards, make it philosophical; but while mainly of interest to philosophers, its broader arguments will contribute to the conceptual foundations of studies of risk in all disciplines that study it.

Author : Johan E. Gustafsson
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 110860496X
Total Pages : 116 pages
Book Rating : 4.63/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book Money-Pump Arguments written by Johan E. Gustafsson and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2022-10-13 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Suppose that you prefer A to B, B to C, and C to A. Your preferences violate Expected Utility Theory by being cyclic. Money-pump arguments offer a way to show that such violations are irrational. Suppose that you start with A. Then you should be willing to trade A for C and then C for B. But then, once you have B, you are offered a trade back to A for a small cost. Since you prefer A to B, you pay the small sum to trade from B to A. But now you have been turned into a money pump. You are back to the alternative you started with but with less money. This Element shows how each of the axioms of Expected Utility Theory can be defended by money-pump arguments of this kind. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.