Author : Marcel van Oijen
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3031163338
Total Pages : 118 pages
Book Rating : 4.33/5 ( download)
Book Synopsis Probabilistic Risk Analysis and Bayesian Decision Theory by : Marcel van Oijen
Download or read book Probabilistic Risk Analysis and Bayesian Decision Theory written by Marcel van Oijen and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-11-23 with total page 118 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book shows how risk, defined as the statistical expectation of loss, can be formally decomposed as the product of two terms: hazard probability and system vulnerability. This requires a specific definition of vulnerability that replaces the many fuzzy definitions abounding in the literature. The approach is expanded to more complex risk analysis with three components rather than two, and with various definitions of hazard. Equations are derived to quantify the uncertainty of each risk component and show how the approach relates to Bayesian decision theory. Intended for statisticians, environmental scientists and risk analysts interested in the theory and application of risk analysis, this book provides precise definitions, new theory, and many examples with full computer code. The approach is based on straightforward use of probability theory which brings rigour and clarity. Only a moderate knowledge and understanding of probability theory is expected from the reader.