Population Dynamics And Projection Methods

Author : John Stillwell
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9048189306
Total Pages : 245 pages
Book Rating : 4.04/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Population Dynamics and Projection Methods written by John Stillwell and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-02-15 with total page 245 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although the human population growth rate of the world has been declining since peaking in the early 1960s, the populations of individual countries are changing at different rates. Population dynamics at national level are partly determined by levels of fertility and mortality, but the impact of international migration is playing an increasingly important role. Moreover, internal migration plays a major part in population change at the sub-national level. This fourth volume in the series “Understanding Population Trends and Processes” is a celebration of the work of Professor Philip Rees. It contains chapters by contributors who have collaborated with Phil Rees on research or consultancy projects or as postgraduate students. Several chapters demonstrate the technical nature of population projection modelling and simulation methods while others illustrate issues relating to data availability and estimation. This book demonstrates the application of theoretical and modelling methods and addresses key issues relating to contemporary demographic patterns and trends.

Author : Stanley K. Smith
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9400775512
Total Pages : 417 pages
Book Rating : 4.10/5 ( download)

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Download or read book A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections written by Stanley K. Smith and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-12-16 with total page 417 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book focuses on the methodology and analysis of state and local population projections. It describes the most commonly used data sources and application techniques for four types of projection methods: cohort-component, trend extrapolation, structural models, and microsimulation. It covers the components of population growth, sources of data, the formation of assumptions, the development of evaluation criteria, and the determinants of forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of various projection methods and pays special attention to the unique problems that characterize small-area projections. The authors provide practical guidance to demographers, planners, market analysts, and others called on to construct state and local population projections. They use many examples and illustrations and present suggestions for dealing with special populations, unique circumstances, and inadequate or unreliable data. They describe techniques for controlling one set of projections to another, for interpolating between time points, for sub-dividing age groups, and for constructing projections of population-related variables (e.g., school enrollment, households). They discuss the role of judgment and the importance of the political context in which projections are made. They emphasize the “utility” of projections, or their usefulness for decision making in a world of competing demands and limited resources. This comprehensive book will provide readers with an understanding not only of the mechanics of the most commonly used population projection methods, but also of the many complex issues affecting their construction, interpretation, evaluation, and use.​

Author : Stanley K. Smith
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 0306473720
Total Pages : 433 pages
Book Rating : 4.22/5 ( download)

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Download or read book State and Local Population Projections written by Stanley K. Smith and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2005-12-21 with total page 433 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The initial plans for this book sprang from a late-afternoon conversation in a hotel bar. All three authors were attending the 1996 meeting of the Population As- ciation of America in New Orleans. While nursing drinks and expounding on a variety of topics, we began talking about our current research projects. It so happened that all three of us had been entertaining the notion of writing a book on state and local population projections. Recognizing the enormity of the project for a single author, we quickly decided to collaborate. Had we not decided to work together, it is unlikely that this book ever would have been written. The last comprehensive treatment of state and local population projections was Don Pittenger’s excellent work Projecting State and Local Populations (1976). Many changes affecting the production of population projections have occurred since that time. Technological changes have led to vast increases in computing power, new data sources, the development of GIS, and the creation of the Internet. The procedures for applying a number of projection methods have changed considerably, and several completely new methods have been developed.

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 12 pages
Book Rating : 4.09/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Current Population Reports written by and published by . This book was released on 1952 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Author : Henk A. De Gans
Publisher : Rozenberg Publishers
ISBN 13 : 9051707479
Total Pages : 288 pages
Book Rating : 4.72/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Populations, Projections, Politics written by Henk A. De Gans and published by Rozenberg Publishers. This book was released on 2003 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines the interrelations of population change, developments in projection methodology, and politics in the 1920s and 1930s. Together, the contributions in the book represent an important scholarly and critical contribution to the history of d

Author : Thomas K. Burch
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319654330
Total Pages : 200 pages
Book Rating : 4.31/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Model-Based Demography written by Thomas K. Burch and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-10-14 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Late in a career of more than sixty years, Thomas Burch, an internationally known social demographer, undertook a wide-ranging methodological critique of demography. This open access volume contains a selection of resulting papers, some previously unpublished, some published but not readily accessible [from past meetings of The International Union for the Scientific Study of Population and its research committees, or from other small conferences and seminars]. Rejecting the idea that demography is simply a branch of applied statistics, his work views it as an autonomous and complete scientific discipline. When viewed from the perspective of modern philosophy of science, specifically the semantic or model-based school, demography is a balanced discipline, with a rich body of techniques and data, but also with more and better theories than generally recognized. As demonstrated in this book, some demographic techniques can also be seen as theoretical models, and some substantive/behavioral models, commonly rejected as theory because of inconsistent observations, are now seen as valuable theoretical models, for example demographic transition theory. This book shows how demography can build a strong theoretical edifice on its broad and deep empirical foundation by adoption of the model-based approach to science. But the full-fruits of this approach will require demographers to make greater use of computer modeling [both macro- and micro-simulation], in the statement and manipulation of theoretical ideas, as well as for numerical computation. This book is open access under a CC BY license.

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 74 pages
Book Rating : 4.42/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Accuracy of Population Projection Methods at the U.S. Census Bureau written by and published by . This book was released on 1987* with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Author : Paul R. Campbell
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 10 pages
Book Rating : 4.47/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Population Projections written by Paul R. Campbell and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 10 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Author : Stefano Mazzuco
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030424723
Total Pages : 261 pages
Book Rating : 4.25/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Developments in Demographic Forecasting written by Stefano Mazzuco and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-09-28 with total page 261 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters.

Author : Andrew Hinde
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1134662483
Total Pages : 394 pages
Book Rating : 4.87/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Demographic Methods written by Andrew Hinde and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2014-05-12 with total page 394 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Demography is the study of population structure and change. As modern society becomes ever more complex, it becomes increasingly important to be able to measure accurately all aspects of change in the population, and estimate what its future size and composition might be. This book describes and explains the methods demographers use to analyse population data. Looking at mortality and fertility, population dynamics and population projection, nuptiality and migration, Hinde demonstrates that most demographic methods are applications of certain fundamental principles. This book covers material taught in introductory courses in population analysis, while also including more advanced topics such as parity progression ratios, survival analysis and birth interval analysis. Most chapters are followed by a range of exercises, and a comprehensive set of solutions to these exercises is provided at the end of the book. Quattro and Excel spreadsheet files containing data for all the numerical exercises, plus some additional files of data from recent census and surveys, are available via the Internet.