Overconfidence And War

Author : Dominic D. P. Johnson
Publisher : Harvard University Press
ISBN 13 : 0674039165
Total Pages : 289 pages
Book Rating : 4.62/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Overconfidence and War written by Dominic D. P. Johnson and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 2009-07-01 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Opponents rarely go to war without thinking they can win--and clearly, one side must be wrong. This conundrum lies at the heart of the so-called "war puzzle": rational states should agree on their differences in power and thus not fight. But as Dominic Johnson argues in Overconfidence and War, states are no more rational than people, who are susceptible to exaggerated ideas of their own virtue, of their ability to control events, and of the future. By looking at this bias--called "positive illusions"--as it figures in evolutionary biology, psychology, and the politics of international conflict, this book offers compelling insights into why states wage war. Johnson traces the effects of positive illusions on four turning points in twentieth-century history: two that erupted into war (World War I and Vietnam); and two that did not (the Munich crisis and the Cuban missile crisis). Examining the two wars, he shows how positive illusions have filtered into politics, causing leaders to overestimate themselves and underestimate their adversaries--and to resort to violence to settle a conflict against unreasonable odds. In the Munich and Cuban missile crises, he shows how lessening positive illusions may allow leaders to pursue peaceful solutions. The human tendency toward overconfidence may have been favored by natural selection throughout our evolutionary history because of the advantages it conferred--heightening combat performance or improving one's ability to bluff an opponent. And yet, as this book suggests--and as the recent conflict in Iraq bears out--in the modern world the consequences of this evolutionary legacy are potentially deadly.

Author : Dominic D. P. Johnson
Publisher : Harvard University Press
ISBN 13 : 0674039173
Total Pages : 358 pages
Book Rating : 4.79/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Failing to Win written by Dominic D. P. Johnson and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 2009-07-01 with total page 358 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How do people decide which country came out ahead in a war or a crisis? Why, for instance, was the Mayaguez Incident in May 1975--where 41 U.S. soldiers were killed and dozens more wounded in a botched hostage rescue mission--perceived as a triumph and the 1992-94 U.S. humanitarian intervention in Somalia, which saved thousands of lives, viewed as a disaster? In Failing to Win, Dominic Johnson and Dominic Tierney dissect the psychological factors that predispose leaders, media, and the public to perceive outcomes as victories or defeats--often creating wide gaps between perceptions and reality. To make their case, Johnson and Tierney employ two frameworks: "Scorekeeping," which focuses on actual material gains and losses; and "Match-fixing," where evaluations become skewed by mindsets, symbolic events, and media and elite spin. In case studies ranging from the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis and the current War on Terror, the authors show that much of what we accept about international politics and world history is not what it seems--and why, in a time when citizens offer or withdraw support based on an imagined view of the outcome rather than the result on the ground, perceptions of success or failure can shape the results of wars, the fate of leaders, and the "lessons" we draw from history.

Author : Dominic D. P. Johnson
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 0691210608
Total Pages : 392 pages
Book Rating : 4.05/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Strategic Instincts written by Dominic D. P. Johnson and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2022-08-30 with total page 392 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "A very timely book."—Anne-Marie Slaughter, CEO of New America How cognitive biases can guide good decision making in politics and international relations A widespread assumption in political science and international relations is that cognitive biases—quirks of the brain we all share as human beings—are detrimental and responsible for policy failures, disasters, and wars. In Strategic Instincts, Dominic Johnson challenges this assumption, explaining that these nonrational behaviors can actually support favorable results in international politics and contribute to political and strategic success. By studying past examples, he considers the ways that cognitive biases act as “strategic instincts,” lending a competitive edge in policy decisions, especially under conditions of unpredictability and imperfect information. Drawing from evolutionary theory and behavioral sciences, Johnson looks at three influential cognitive biases—overconfidence, the fundamental attribution error, and in-group/out-group bias. He then examines the advantageous as well as the detrimental effects of these biases through historical case studies of the American Revolution, the Munich Crisis, and the Pacific campaign in World War II. He acknowledges the dark side of biases—when confidence becomes hubris, when attribution errors become paranoia, and when group bias becomes prejudice. Ultimately, Johnson makes a case for a more nuanced understanding of the causes and consequences of cognitive biases and argues that in the complex world of international relations, strategic instincts can, in the right context, guide better performance. Strategic Instincts shows how an evolutionary perspective can offer the crucial next step in bringing psychological insights to bear on foundational questions in international politics.

Author : David C. Gompert
Publisher : Rand Corporation
ISBN 13 : 0833087789
Total Pages : 329 pages
Book Rating : 4.82/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Blinders, Blunders, and Wars written by David C. Gompert and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2014-11-26 with total page 329 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The history of wars caused by misjudgments, from Napoleon’s invasion of Russia to America’s invasion of Iraq, reveals that leaders relied on cognitive models that were seriously at odds with objective reality. Blinders, Blunders, and Wars analyzes eight historical examples of strategic blunders regarding war and peace and four examples of decisions that turned out well, and then applies those lessons to the current Sino-American case.

Author : Neil Sheehan
Publisher : Vintage
ISBN 13 : 0679603808
Total Pages : 898 pages
Book Rating : 4.01/5 ( download)

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Download or read book A Bright Shining Lie written by Neil Sheehan and published by Vintage. This book was released on 2009-10-20 with total page 898 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: One of the most acclaimed books of our time—the definitive Vietnam War exposé and the winner of the Pulitzer Prize and the National Book Award. When he came to Vietnam in 1962, Lieutenant Colonel John Paul Vann was the one clear-sighted participant in an enterprise riddled with arrogance and self-deception, a charismatic soldier who put his life and career on the line in an attempt to convince his superiors that the war should be fought another way. By the time he died in 1972, Vann had embraced the follies he once decried. He died believing that the war had been won. In this magisterial book, a monument of history and biography that was awarded the National Book Award and the Pulitzer Prize for Nonfiction, a renowned journalist tells the story of John Vann—"the one irreplaceable American in Vietnam"—and of the tragedy that destroyed a country and squandered so much of America's young manhood and resources.

Author : Gary E. Bolton
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0199730857
Total Pages : 419 pages
Book Rating : 4.58/5 ( download)

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Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Economic Conflict Resolution written by Gary E. Bolton and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2012-10-11 with total page 419 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Individuals, groups, and societies all experience and resolve conflict. In this handbook, scholars from multiple disciplines offer perspectives on the current state and future challenges in negotiation and conflict resolution. This confluence of research perspectives will identify further synergies and advances in our understanding of conflict resolution.

Author : Ned Dobos
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0192604236
Total Pages : 182 pages
Book Rating : 4.31/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Ethics, Security, and The War-Machine written by Ned Dobos and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2020-05-07 with total page 182 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: If pacifists are correct in thinking that war is always unjust, then it follows that we ought to eliminate the possibility and temptation of ever engaging in it; we should not build war-making capacity, and if we already have, then demilitarization—or military abolition—would seem to be the appropriate course to take. On the other hand, if war is sometimes justified, as many believe, then it must be permissible to prepare for it by creating and maintaining a military establishment. Yet this view that the justifiability of war-making is also sufficient to justify war-building is mistaken. This book addresses questions of jus ante bellum, or justice before war. Under what circumstances is it justifiable for a polity to prepare for war by militarizing? When (if ever) and why (if at all) is it morally permissible to create and maintain the potential to wage war? In doing so it highlights the ways in which a civilian population compromises its own security in maintaining a permanent military establishment, explores the moral and social costs of militarization, and evaluates whether or not these costs are worth bearing.

Author : Thean Potgieter
Publisher : AFRICAN SUN MeDIA
ISBN 13 : 1920338845
Total Pages : 298 pages
Book Rating : 4.48/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Reflections on War written by Thean Potgieter and published by AFRICAN SUN MeDIA. This book was released on 2012-10-01 with total page 298 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Reflections on War is a comprehensive and objective investigation into the problems of war. The book explores the crucial link between theory, strategy and objectives in war, taking all the evidence and theory into account, and should be of interest to military practitioners, specialists in defence studies, and others interested in military history. Also notable about the work is its ability to draw insights together from international legal theory, management sciences, history, sociology and the political economy of war ? showing due respect for the moral complexities involved in waging war.

Author : Stephen M. Walt
Publisher : Cornell University Press
ISBN 13 : 0801470013
Total Pages : 382 pages
Book Rating : 4.11/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Revolution and War written by Stephen M. Walt and published by Cornell University Press. This book was released on 2013-08-09 with total page 382 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Revolution within a state almost invariably leads to intense security competition between states, and often to war. In Revolution and War, Stephen M. Walt explains why this is so, and suggests how the risk of conflicts brought on by domestic upheaval might be reduced in the future. In doing so, he explores one of the basic questions of international relations: What are the connections between domestic politics and foreign policy? Walt begins by exposing the flaws in existing theories about the relationship between revolution and war. Drawing on the theoretical literature about revolution and the realist perspective on international politics, he argues that revolutions cause wars by altering the balance of threats between a revolutionary state and its rivals. Each state sees the other as both a looming danger and a vulnerable adversary, making war seem both necessary and attractive. Walt traces the dynamics of this argument through detailed studies of the French, Russian, and Iranian revolutions, and through briefer treatment of the American, Mexican, Turkish, and Chinese cases. He also considers the experience of the Soviet Union, whose revolutionary transformation led to conflict within the former Soviet empire but not with the outside world. An important refinement of realist approaches to international politics, this book unites the study of revolution with scholarship on the causes of war.

Author : John E. Ferling
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0195382927
Total Pages : 694 pages
Book Rating : 4.21/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Almost a Miracle written by John E. Ferling and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2009 with total page 694 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Describes the military history of the American Revolution and the grim realities of the eight-year conflict while offering descriptions of the major engagements on land and sea and the decisions that influenced the course of the war.