Oil Prices And The Global Economy

Author : Mr.Kamiar Mohaddes
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 148431512X
Total Pages : 28 pages
Book Rating : 4.25/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Oil Prices and the Global Economy written by Mr.Kamiar Mohaddes and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-11-08 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent plunge in oil prices has brought into question the generally accepted view that lower oil prices are good for the United States and the global economy. In this paper, using a quarterly multi-country econometric model, we first show that a fall in oil prices tends relatively quickly to lower interest rates and inflation in most countries, and increase global real equity prices. The effects on real output are positive, although they take longer to materialize (around four quarters after the shock). We then re-examine the effects of low oil prices on the U.S. economy over different sub-periods using monthly observations on real oil prices, real equity prices and real dividends. We confirm the perverse positive relationship between oil and equity prices over the period since the 2008 financial crisis highlighted in the recent literature, but show that this relationship has been unstable when considered over the longer time period of 1946–2016. In contrast, we find a stable negative relationship between oil prices and real dividends which we argue is a better proxy for economic activity (as compared to equity prices). On the supply side, the effects of lower oil prices differ widely across the different oil producers, and could be perverse initially, as some of the major oil producers try to compensate their loss of revenues by raising production. Taking demand and supply adjustments to oil price changes as a whole, we conclude that oil markets equilibrate but rather slowly, with large episodic swings between low and high oil prices.

Author : Mr.Rabah Arezki
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475572360
Total Pages : 30 pages
Book Rating : 4.60/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Oil Prices and the Global Economy written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-01-27 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses. The model provides, inter alia, a useful analytical framework to explore the effects of: a change in world GDP growth; a change in the efficiency of oil usage; and a change in the supply of oil. Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, our analysis suggests that an era of prolonged low oil prices is likely to be followed by a period where oil prices overshoot their long-term upward trend.

Author : Mr.Rabah Arezki
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475577745
Total Pages : 30 pages
Book Rating : 4.47/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Oil Prices and the Global Economy written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-02-10 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses. The model provides, inter alia, a useful analytical framework to explore the effects of: a change in world GDP growth; a change in the efficiency of oil usage; and a change in the supply of oil. Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, our analysis suggests that an era of prolonged low oil prices is likely to be followed by a period where oil prices overshoot their long-term upward trend.

Author : Lars Matthiessen
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 1349063614
Total Pages : 217 pages
Book Rating : 4.11/5 ( download)

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Download or read book The Impact of Rising Oil Prices on the World Economy written by Lars Matthiessen and published by Springer. This book was released on 1982-06-18 with total page 217 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Author : Mr.Kamiar Mohaddes
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513509845
Total Pages : 35 pages
Book Rating : 4.46/5 ( download)

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Download or read book The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy written by Mr.Kamiar Mohaddes and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-12-10 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of falling oil prices due to the oil revolution in the United States, using a Global VAR model estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Set-identification of the U.S. oil supply shock is achieved through imposing dynamic sign restrictions on the impulse responses of the model. The results show that there are considerable heterogeneities in the responses of different countries to a U.S. supply-driven oil price shock, with real GDP increasing in both advanced and emerging market oil-importing economies, output declining in commodity exporters, inflation falling in most countries, and equity prices rising worldwide. Overall, our results suggest that following the U.S. oil revolution, with oil prices falling by 51 percent in the first year, global growth increases by 0.16 to 0.37 percentage points. This is mainly due to an increase in spending by oil importing countries, which exceeds the decline in expenditure by oil exporters.

Author : Vivian Randhawa
Publisher : GRIN Verlag
ISBN 13 : 3668702942
Total Pages : 30 pages
Book Rating : 4.43/5 ( download)

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Download or read book The impact of oil price dynamics on global economy written by Vivian Randhawa and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2018-05-14 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seminar paper from the year 2014 in the subject Business economics - Trade and Distribution, grade: 1,7, Hamburg University of Applied Sciences, language: English, abstract: After oil was discovered in the late 19th century, oil prices were primarily determined first by the major petroleum companies and then by the oil-exporting nations, who joined forces in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). In the 1960s, the market-oriented pricing system was adopted and since then oil prices are primarily formed by supply and demand. Oil prices are characterized by permanent price fluctuations. Especially rapid price rises and longer-term fluctuations are at the focus of many scientific work. Because oil is an indispensable resource for the global economy, the question arises after the economic impacts of such price developments. While oil- exporting countries benefit from strong price rises, oil- importing countries, with emerging countries leading the way, are negatively affected. The interplay of these opposite effects and the global economic situation are crucial for the net effect on global economy.

Author : Rabah Arezki
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 31 pages
Book Rating : 4.90/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Oil Prices and the Global Economy written by Rabah Arezki and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Author : Basil Oberholzer
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1786437899
Total Pages : 304 pages
Book Rating : 4.91/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Monetary Policy and Crude Oil written by Basil Oberholzer and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2017-07-28 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global crude oil market is critically important in many respects. It is the fuel that drives the global economy and, as such, is the focus of climate policies. Moreover, crude oil is the basis of a tradable financial asset. It is therefore connected to several outstanding macroeconomic developments of recent years, including financial market fluctuations, the financial crisis and the exceptional conduct of monetary policy. This book investigates the impacts of monetary policy and the financial system on the global crude oil market. Furthermore, it outlines how monetary policy may also be used to guarantee stability and to contribute to ecological sustainability.

Author : Nadine Pahl
Publisher : GRIN Verlag
ISBN 13 : 3640303040
Total Pages : 85 pages
Book Rating : 4.45/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Oil Price Developments - Drivers, Economic Consequences and Policy Responses written by Nadine Pahl and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2009-04-16 with total page 85 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Research Paper (undergraduate) from the year 2007 in the subject Business economics - Economic Policy, grade: 1,0, University of Applied Sciences Berlin, course: General Economics, language: English, abstract: Oil prices are an important determinant of global economic performance. Crude Oil prices ranged between $2.50/bbl and $3.00/bbl from 1948 through the end of the 1960s. As of this day, the price for crude oil is $89.82/bbl. In general, spikes in oil prices are not unusual and are, to some extent, symptomatic of a gradual upward trend in daily oil price volatility. Volatile prices arise from supply and demand that are both highly inelastic in the short run, with the result that even small shocks can have large effects on price. But especially within the last few years, the oil price has continuously increased sharply - and to some extent unexpected. This recent sharp increase in the oil price prompts several questions: Why have oil prices risen? What is the impact on the global economy and on individual countries? How do oil importing countries cope with the higher prices? What are appropriate policy responses to stabilise the economy in face of high oil prices? And last but not least, what role does the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries really play? To begin with, there is no doubt that the recent increase in oil price is mainly demand driven, combined with historically low excess capacity and heightened concerns about supply disruptions. And even without macroeconomic knowledge, everyone is aware that higher oil prices affect the economy as a whole and all its market participants. In the following, this paper analyses in detail the current main oil price drivers, their economic consequences and the possible policy responses - always framed by the volatility and uncertainty that characterise the oil market.

Author : Mr.Aasim M. Husain
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 151357227X
Total Pages : 41 pages
Book Rating : 4.77/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices written by Mr.Aasim M. Husain and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-07-14 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.