New Challenges New Tools For Defense Decisionmaking

Author : Stuart E. Johnson
Publisher : Rand Corporation
ISBN 13 : 0833034103
Total Pages : 415 pages
Book Rating : 4.06/5 ( download)

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Download or read book New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking written by Stuart E. Johnson and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2003-03-31 with total page 415 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is still easy to underestimate how much the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War?--and then the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001?--transformed the task of American foreign and defense policymaking. In place of predictability (if a sometimes terrifying predictability), the world is now very unpredictable. In place of a single overriding threat and benchmark by which all else could be measured, a number of possible threats have arisen, not all of them states. In place of force-on-force engagements, U.S. defense planners have to assume "asymmetric" threats?--ways not to defeat U.S. power but to render it irrelevant. This book frames the challenges for defense policy that the transformed world engenders, and it sketches new tools for dealing with those challenges?--from new techniques in modeling and gaming, to planning based on capabilities rather than threats, to personnel planning and making use of "best practices" from the private sector.

Author : Stuart E. Johnson
Publisher : Rand Corporation
ISBN 13 : 0833032895
Total Pages : 415 pages
Book Rating : 4.98/5 ( download)

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Download or read book New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking written by Stuart E. Johnson and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2003 with total page 415 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold WarÑand then the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001Ñtransformed the task of American foreign and defense policymaking. This book outlines the dimensions of that transformation and sketches new tools for dealing with the policy challengesÑfrom modeling and gaming, to planning based on capabilities rather than threats, to personnel planning and making use of "best practices" from the private sector.

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309180732
Total Pages : 96 pages
Book Rating : 4.33/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Defense Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2006-09-22 with total page 96 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modeling, simulation, and analysis (MS&A) is a crucial tool for military affairs. MS&A is one of the announced pillars of a strategy for transforming the U.S. military. Yet changes in the enterprise of MS&A have not kept pace with the new demands arising from rapid changes in DOD processes and missions or with the rapid changes in the technology available to meet those demands. To help address those concerns, DOD asked the NRC to identify shortcomings in current practice of MS&A and suggest where and how they should be resolved. This report provides an assessment of the changing mission of DOD and environment in which it must operate, an identification of high-level opportunities for MS&A research to address the expanded mission, approaches for improving the interface between MS&A practitioners and decision makers, a discussion of training and continuing education of MS&A practitioners, and an examination of the need for coordinated military science research to support MS&A.

Author : Paul K. Davis
Publisher : Rand Corporation
ISBN 13 : 0833038087
Total Pages : 181 pages
Book Rating : 4.81/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Implications of Modern Decision Science for Military Decision-support Systems written by Paul K. Davis and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2005 with total page 181 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A selective review of modern decision science and implications for decision-support systems. The study suggests ways to synthesize lessons from research on heuristics and biases with those from "naturalistic research." It also discusses modern tools, such as increasingly realistic simulations, multiresolution modeling, and exploratory analysis, which can assist decisionmakers in choosing strategies that are flexible, adaptive, and robust.

Author : Alain C. Enthoven
Publisher : Rand Corporation
ISBN 13 : 0833048147
Total Pages : 395 pages
Book Rating : 4.41/5 ( download)

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Download or read book How Much Is Enough? written by Alain C. Enthoven and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2005-10-18 with total page 395 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Originally published in 1971, and now published with a new foreword, this is a book of enduring value and lasting relevance. The authors detail the application, history, and controversies surrounding the Planning, Programming, and Budgeting System (PPBS), used to evaluate military needs and to choose among alternatives for meeting those needs.

Author : National Intelligence Council
Publisher : Cosimo Reports
ISBN 13 : 9781646794973
Total Pages : 158 pages
Book Rating : 4.74/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Global Trends 2040 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2021-03 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

Author : Evan S. Medeiros
Publisher : Rand Corporation
ISBN 13 : 0833040790
Total Pages : 331 pages
Book Rating : 4.94/5 ( download)

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Download or read book A New Direction for China's Defense Industry written by Evan S. Medeiros and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2005-12-19 with total page 331 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the early 1980s, a prominent and consistent conclusion drawn from research on China's defense-industrial complex has been that China's defense-production capabilities are rife with weaknesses and limitations. This study argues for an alternative approach: From the vantage point of 2005, it is time to shift the focus of current research to the gradual improvements in and the future potential of China's defense-industrial complex. The study found that China's defense sectors are designing and producing a wide range of increasingly advanced weapons that, in the short term, are relevant to a possible conflict over Taiwan but also to China's long-term military presence in Asia. Part of a larger RAND Project AIR FORCE study on Chinese military modernization, this study examines the current and future capabilities of China's defense industry. The goals of this study are to 1.

Author : Charles Johnston Hitch
Publisher : Univ of California Press
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 83 pages
Book Rating : 4.19/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Decision-making for Defense written by Charles Johnston Hitch and published by Univ of California Press. This book was released on 1967 with total page 83 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Author : Richard L. Kugler
Publisher : Government Printing Office
ISBN 13 : 9781579060701
Total Pages : 664 pages
Book Rating : 4.06/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Policy Analysis in National Security Affairs written by Richard L. Kugler and published by Government Printing Office. This book was released on 2006 with total page 664 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book addresses how to conduct policy analysis in the field of national security, including foreign policy and defense strategy. It is a philosophical and conceptual book for helphing people think deeply, clearly, and insightfully about complex policy issues. This books reflects the viewpoint that the best policies normally come from efforts to synthesize competing camps by drawing upon the best of each of them and by combining them to forge a sensible whole. While this book is written to be reader-friendly, it aspires to in-depth scholarship.

Author : Paul K. Davis
Publisher : Rand Corporation
ISBN 13 : 0833040391
Total Pages : 106 pages
Book Rating : 4.98/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Theory and Methods for Supporting High Level Military Decisionmaking written by Paul K. Davis and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2007 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report describes an approach to high-level decision support for a Joint Forces Air Component Commander in combat operations or a Chief of Staff in defense planning. Its central theme is the fundamental importance of dealing effectively with uncertainty, whether in effects-based operations, building the Air Force's Commander's Predictive Environment, or planning future forces with the methods of capabilities-based planning. Because many features of the future cannot be predicted with reasonable confidence, it is better to proceed with the expectation of surprise developments and to have skill in recognizing adaptations and making them than it is to treat uncertainty merely as an annoyance. This report sketches the framework of a high-level decision-support environment that is top-down, expresses concepts in simple and intuitive language, deals explicitly with risk and uncertainty, and provides the capability for decisionmakers to readily discover and question the bases for key assumptions and assessments. It can accommodate both "rational-analytic" and "naturalistic" decisionmakers, allowing them to produce strategies that are flexible, adaptive, and robust (FAR). Two explicit methods and their related tools are described. The first involves portfolio-style thinking and analysis, a good mechanism for balancing risks and other considerations in choosing a course of action. The second is a novel modification of foresight exercises that addresses the need to include humans effectively in dealing with uncertainty. A more extensive discussion of available methods and enabling technologies is also presented, along with some recommendations about investment priorities.