Measuring Global And Country Specific Uncertainty

Author : Ezgi O. Ozturk
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484326113
Total Pages : 41 pages
Book Rating : 4.14/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Measuring Global and Country-Specific Uncertainty written by Ezgi O. Ozturk and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-10-30 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Motivated by the literature on the capital asset pricing model, we decompose the uncertainty of a typical forecaster into common and idiosyncratic uncertainty. Using individual survey data from the Consensus Forecasts over the period of 1989-2014, we develop monthly measures of macroeconomic uncertainty covering 45 countries and construct a measure of global uncertainty as the weighted average of country-specific uncertainties. Our measure captures perceived uncertainty of market participants and derives from two components that are shown to exhibit strikingly different behavior. Common uncertainty shocks produce the large and persistent negative response in real economic activity, whereas the contributions of idiosyncratic uncertainty shocks are negligible.

Author : Ezgi O. Ozturk
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484316592
Total Pages : 41 pages
Book Rating : 4.97/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Measuring Global and Country-Specific Uncertainty written by Ezgi O. Ozturk and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-10-30 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Motivated by the literature on the capital asset pricing model, we decompose the uncertainty of a typical forecaster into common and idiosyncratic uncertainty. Using individual survey data from the Consensus Forecasts over the period of 1989-2014, we develop monthly measures of macroeconomic uncertainty covering 45 countries and construct a measure of global uncertainty as the weighted average of country-specific uncertainties. Our measure captures perceived uncertainty of market participants and derives from two components that are shown to exhibit strikingly different behavior. Common uncertainty shocks produce the large and persistent negative response in real economic activity, whereas the contributions of idiosyncratic uncertainty shocks are negligible.

Author : Laurent Ferrara
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319790757
Total Pages : 298 pages
Book Rating : 4.56/5 ( download)

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Download or read book International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis written by Laurent Ferrara and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-06-13 with total page 298 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.

Author : World Bank
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 0821397281
Total Pages : 697 pages
Book Rating : 4.82/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Measuring the Real Size of the World's Economy written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2013 with total page 697 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions"--T.p. verso.

Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484397487
Total Pages : 216 pages
Book Rating : 4.80/5 ( download)

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Download or read book World Economic Outlook, April 2019 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-04-09 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After strong growth in 2017 and early 2018, global economic activity slowed notably in the second half of last year, reflecting a confluence of factors affecting major economies. China’s growth declined following a combination of needed regulatory tightening to rein in shadow banking and an increase in trade tensions with the United States. The euro area economy lost more momentum than expected as consumer and business confidence weakened and car production in Germany was disrupted by the introduction of new emission standards; investment dropped in Italy as sovereign spreads widened; and external demand, especially from emerging Asia, softened. Elsewhere, natural disasters hurt activity in Japan. Trade tensions increasingly took a toll on business confidence and, so, financial market sentiment worsened, with financial conditions tightening for vulnerable emerging markets in the spring of 2018 and then in advanced economies later in the year, weighing on global demand. Conditions have eased in 2019 as the US Federal Reserve signaled a more accommodative monetary policy stance and markets became more optimistic about a US–China trade deal, but they remain slightly more restrictive than in the fall.

Author : Axel Dreher
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 0387740694
Total Pages : 230 pages
Book Rating : 4.90/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Measuring Globalisation written by Axel Dreher and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-12-05 with total page 230 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Globalisation is a timely and controversial topic. Against the chorus of globalisation’s proponents and detractors, the authors propose an approach for measuring globalisation and its consequences. Undertaking a comprehensive review of the literature on globalisation and using data from the MGI and KOF indices, the well-respected authors build a framework for defining globalisation and analyzing the relationships among economic, political, and social variables.

Author : Christopher J. L. Murray
Publisher : Harvard School of Public Health, Frangois-Xavier Bagnoud Cen
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 1032 pages
Book Rating : 4.12/5 ( download)

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Download or read book The Global Burden of Disease written by Christopher J. L. Murray and published by Harvard School of Public Health, Frangois-Xavier Bagnoud Cen. This book was released on 1996 with total page 1032 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) provides systematic epidemiological estimates for an unprecedented 150 major health conditions. The GBD provides indispensable global and regional data for health planning, research, and education.

Author : Mr.Hideaki Hirata
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475591608
Total Pages : 47 pages
Book Rating : 4.06/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Global House Price Fluctuations written by Mr.Hideaki Hirata and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-02-06 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the properties of house price fluctuations across 18 advanced economies over the past 40 years. We ask two specific questions: First, how synchronized are housing cycles across these countries? Second, what are the main shocks driving movements in global house prices? To address these questions, we first estimate the global components in house prices and various macroeconomic and financial variables. We then evaluate the roles played by a variety of global shocks, including shocks to interest rates, monetary policy, productivity, credit, and uncertainty, in explaining house price fluctuations using a wide range of FAVAR models. We find that house prices are synchronized across countries, and the degree of synchronization has increased over time. Global interest rate shocks tend to have a significant negative effect on global house prices whereas global monetary policy shocks per se do not appear to have a sizeable impact. Interestingly, uncertainty shocks seem to be important in explaining fluctuations in global house prices.

Author : Shiro Armstrong
Publisher : ANU Press
ISBN 13 : 1760461768
Total Pages : 315 pages
Book Rating : 4.68/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Asian Economic Integration in an Era of Global Uncertainty written by Shiro Armstrong and published by ANU Press. This book was released on 2018-01-08 with total page 315 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Pacific Trade and Development (PAFTAD) conference series has been at the forefront of analysing challenges facing the economies of East Asia and the Pacific since its first meeting in Tokyo in January 1968. The 38th PAFTAD conference met at a key time to consider international economic integration. Earlier in the year, the people of the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union and the United States elected Donald Trump as their next president on the back of an inward-looking ‘America First’ promise. Brexit and President Trump represent a growing, and worrying, trend towards protectionism in the North Atlantic countries that have led the process of globalisation since the end of the Second World War. The chapters in the volume describe the state of play in Asian economic integration but, more importantly, look forward to the region’s future, and the role it might play in defending the global system that has underwritten its historic rise. Asia has the potential to stand as a bulwark against the dual threats of North Atlantic protectionism and slowing trade growth, but collective leadership will be needed regionally and difficult domestic reforms will be required in each country.

Author : Graham Elliott
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0444627405
Total Pages : 667 pages
Book Rating : 4.07/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2013-08-23 with total page 667 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics