Judgment Under Uncertainty

Author : Daniel Kahneman
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521284141
Total Pages : 574 pages
Book Rating : 4.47/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Judgment Under Uncertainty written by Daniel Kahneman and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1982-04-30 with total page 574 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Thirty-five chapters describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments, but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas rather than describing single experimental studies.

Author : Thomas Gilovich
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521796798
Total Pages : 884 pages
Book Rating : 4.92/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Heuristics and Biases written by Thomas Gilovich and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2002-07-08 with total page 884 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book, first published in 2002, compiles psychologists' best attempts to answer important questions about intuitive judgment.

Author : Camille Morvan
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1351350609
Total Pages : 93 pages
Book Rating : 4.00/5 ( download)

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Download or read book An Analysis of Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman's Judgment Under Uncertainty written by Camille Morvan and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2017-07-05 with total page 93 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman’s 1974 paper ‘Judgement Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases’ is a landmark in the history of psychology. Though a mere seven pages long, it has helped reshape the study of human rationality, and had a particular impact on economics – where Tversky and Kahneman’s work helped shape the entirely new sub discipline of ‘behavioral economics.’ The paper investigates human decision-making, specifically what human brains tend to do when we are forced to deal with uncertainty or complexity. Based on experiments carried out with volunteers, Tversky and Kahneman discovered that humans make predictable errors of judgement when forced to deal with ambiguous evidence or make challenging decisions. These errors stem from ‘heuristics’ and ‘biases’ – mental shortcuts and assumptions that allow us to make swift, automatic decisions, often usefully and correctly, but occasionally to our detriment. The paper’s huge influence is due in no small part to its masterful use of high-level interpretative and analytical skills – expressed in Tversky and Kahneman’s concise and clear definitions of the basic heuristics and biases they discovered. Still providing the foundations of new work in the field 40 years later, the two psychologists’ definitions are a model of how good interpretation underpins incisive critical thinking.

Author : Dirk Wendt
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9789027706034
Total Pages : 434 pages
Book Rating : 4.34/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Utility, Probability, and Human Decision Making written by Dirk Wendt and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 1975-12-31 with total page 434 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Human decision making involves problems which are being studied with increasing interest and sophistication. They range from controversial political decisions via individual consumer decisions to such simple tasks as signal discriminations. Although it would seem that decisions have to do with choices among available actions of any kind, there is general agreement that decision making research should pertain to choice prob lems which cannot be solved without a predecisional stage of finding choice alternatives, weighing evidence, and judging values. The ultimate objective of scientific research on decision making is two-fold: (a) to develop a theoretically sound technology for the optimal solution of decision problems, and (b) to formulate a descriptive theory of human decision making. The latter may, in tum, protect decision makers from being caught in the traps of their own limitations and biases. Recently, in decision making research the strong emphasis on well defined laboratory tasks is decreasing in favour of more realistic studies in various practical settings. This may well have been caused by a growing awareness of the fact that decision-behaviour is strongly determined by situational factors, which makes it necessary to look into processes of interaction between the decision maker and the relevant task environ ment. Almost inevitably there is a parallel shift of interest towards problems of utility measurement and the evaluation of consequences.

Author : Daniel Reisberg
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 0195376749
Total Pages : 1106 pages
Book Rating : 4.46/5 ( download)

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Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Cognitive Psychology written by Daniel Reisberg and published by . This book was released on 2013-04-04 with total page 1106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook is an essential, comprehensive resource for students and academics interested in topics in cognitive psychology, including perceptual issues, attention, memory, knowledge representation, language, emotional influences, judgment, problem solving, and the study of individual differences in cognition.

Author : Terry Connolly
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521626026
Total Pages : 814 pages
Book Rating : 4.21/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Judgment and Decision Making written by Terry Connolly and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2000 with total page 814 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work examines issues such as medical diagnosis, weather forecasting, labour negotiations, risk, public policy, business strategy, eyewitnesses, and jury decisions. This is a revision of Arkes and Hammond's 1986 collection of papers on judgment and decision-making. Updated and extended, the focus of this volume is interdisciplinary and applied.

Author : Adrian Vermeule
Publisher : Harvard University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780674022102
Total Pages : 356 pages
Book Rating : 4.06/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Judging Under Uncertainty written by Adrian Vermeule and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 2006 with total page 356 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book, Adrian Vermeule shows that any approach to legal interpretation rests on institutional and empirical premises about the capacities of judges and the systemic effects of their rulings. He argues that legal interpretation is above all an exercise in decisionmaking under severe empirical uncertainty.

Author : David R. Mandel
Publisher : Frontiers Media SA
ISBN 13 : 288963034X
Total Pages : 224 pages
Book Rating : 4.49/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Judgment and Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Descriptive, Normative, and Prescriptive Perspectives written by David R. Mandel and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2019-09-26 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Author : Daniel Kahneman
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1107651069
Total Pages : 864 pages
Book Rating : 4.67/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Choices, Values, and Frames written by Daniel Kahneman and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2000-09-25 with total page 864 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents the definitive exposition of 'prospect theory', a compelling alternative to the classical utility theory of choice. Building on the 1982 volume, Judgement Under Uncertainty, this book brings together seminal papers on prospect theory from economists, decision theorists, and psychologists, including the work of the late Amos Tversky, whose contributions are collected here for the first time. While remaining within a rational choice framework, prospect theory delivers more accurate, empirically verified predictions in key test cases, as well as helping to explain many complex, real-world puzzles. In this volume, it is brought to bear on phenomena as diverse as the principles of legal compensation, the equity premium puzzle in financial markets, and the number of hours that New York cab drivers choose to drive on rainy days. Theoretically elegant and empirically robust, this volume shows how prospect theory has matured into a new science of decision making.

Author : Robert E. Butts
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9401708371
Total Pages : 320 pages
Book Rating : 4.71/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Basic Problems in Methodology and Linguistics written by Robert E. Butts and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-04-17 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Fifth International Congress of Logic, Methodology and Philosophy of Science was held at the University of Western Ontario, London, Canada, 27 August to 2 September 1975. The Congress was held under the auspices of the International Union of History and Philosophy of Science, Division of Logic, Methodology and Philosophy of Science, and was sponsored by the National Research Council of Canada and the University of Western Ontario. As those associated closely with the work of the Division over the years know well, the work undertaken by its members varies greatly and spans a number of fields not always obviously related. In addition, the volume of work done by first rate scholars and scientists in the various fields of the Division has risen enormously. For these and related reasons it seemed to the editors chosen by the Divisional officers that the usual format of publishing the proceedings of the Congress be abandoned in favour of a somewhat more flexible, and hopefully acceptable, method of pre sentation. Accordingly, the work of the invited participants to the Congress has been divided into four volumes appearing in the University of Western Ontario Series in Philosophy of Science. The volumes are entitled, Logic, Foundations of Mathematics and Computability Theory, Foun dational Problems in the Special Sciences, Basic Problems in Methodol ogy and Linguistics, and Historical and Philosophical Dimensions of Logic, Methodology and Philosophy of Science.