Intelligence Analysis As Discovery Of Evidence Hypotheses And Arguments

Author : Gheorghe Tecuci
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1107122600
Total Pages : 285 pages
Book Rating : 4.04/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Intelligence Analysis as Discovery of Evidence, Hypotheses, and Arguments written by Gheorghe Tecuci and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2016-08-30 with total page 285 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using a flexible software system, this book teaches evidential and inferential issues used in drawing conclusions from masses of evidence.

Author : Gheorghe Tecuci
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1316654192
Total Pages : 286 pages
Book Rating : 4.94/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Intelligence Analysis as Discovery of Evidence, Hypotheses, and Arguments written by Gheorghe Tecuci and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2016-08-30 with total page 286 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This unique book on intelligence analysis covers several vital but often overlooked topics. It teaches the evidential and inferential issues involved in 'connecting the dots' to draw defensible and persuasive conclusions from masses of evidence: from observations we make, or questions we ask, we generate alternative hypotheses as explanations or answers; we make use of our hypotheses to generate new lines of inquiry and discover new evidence; and we test the hypotheses with the discovered evidence. To facilitate understanding of these issues and enable the performance of complex analyses, the book introduces an intelligent analytical tool, called Disciple-CD. Readers will practice with Disciple-CD and learn how to formulate hypotheses; develop arguments that reduce complex hypotheses to simpler ones; collect evidence to evaluate the simplest hypotheses; and assess the relevance and the believability of evidence, which combine in complex ways to determine its inferential force and the probabilities of the hypotheses.

Author : David T. Moore
Publisher : DIANE Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1437934927
Total Pages : 158 pages
Book Rating : 4.22/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis written by David T. Moore and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2010-10 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Contents: (1) How Do People Reason?; (2) What is Critical Thinking?; (3) What Can Be Learned from the Past?: Thinking Critically about Cuba: Deploying the Missiles; Assessing the Implications; Between Dogmatism and Refutation; Lacking: Disconfirmation; The Roles of Critical Thinking in the Cuban Crisis; Winners and Losers: The Crisis in Context; Ten Years Later, They Meet Again; Judgment; (4) How Can Intelligence Analysts Employ Critical Thinking?; (5) How Can Intelligence Analysts be Taught to Think Critically?; (6) How Does Critical Thinking Transform?; (7) What Other Points of View Exist?; (8) What Does the Future Hold?; (9) NSA¿s Critical Thinking and Structured Analysis Class Syllabus. Charts and tables.

Author : Richards J Heuer
Publisher : Pickle Partners Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1839743050
Total Pages : 344 pages
Book Rating : 4.54/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Psychology of Intelligence Analysis written by Richards J Heuer and published by Pickle Partners Publishing. This book was released on 2020-03-05 with total page 344 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this seminal work, published by the C.I.A. itself, produced by Intelligence veteran Richards Heuer discusses three pivotal points. First, human minds are ill-equipped ("poorly wired") to cope effectively with both inherent and induced uncertainty. Second, increased knowledge of our inherent biases tends to be of little assistance to the analyst. And lastly, tools and techniques that apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex problems.

Author : David A. Schum
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 384 pages
Book Rating : 4.92/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Evidence and Inference for the Intelligence Analyst written by David A. Schum and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the companion volume to the book described above. Volume II contains supplementary material for Chapters 3 through 12 in Volume I. These supplements contain various formal, logical, or mathematical arguments in support of assertions made in the chapters in Volume I. The supplements also contain additional topical examples of evidentiary and inferential matters discussed in the chapter of Volume I; the examples in eight of these supplements are numerical in nature and are designed to illustrate the operations of the various formal systems of probability/inference under consideration.

Author : Richards J. Heuer Jr.
Publisher : CQ Press
ISBN 13 : 148331202X
Total Pages : 385 pages
Book Rating : 4.26/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis written by Richards J. Heuer Jr. and published by CQ Press. This book was released on 2014-05-28 with total page 385 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this Second Edition of Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, authors Richards J. Heuer Jr. and Randolph H. Pherson showcase fifty-five structured analytic techniques—five new to this edition—that represent the most current best practices in intelligence, law enforcement, homeland security, and business analysis.

Author : Gloria Phillips-Wren
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642146163
Total Pages : 719 pages
Book Rating : 4.69/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Advances in Intelligent Decision Technologies written by Gloria Phillips-Wren and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-07-19 with total page 719 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Intelligent Decision Technologies (IDT) seeks an interchange of research on intelligent systems and intelligent technologies which enhance or improve decision making in industry, government and academia. The focus is interdisciplinary in nature, and includes research on all aspects of intelligent decision technologies, from fundamental development to the applied system. This volume represents leading research from the Second KES International Symposium on Intelligent Decision Technologies (KES IDT’10), hosted and organized by the Sellinger School of Business and Management, Loyola University Maryland, USA, in conjunction with KES International. The symposium was concerned with theory, design development, implementation, testing and evaluation of intelligent decision systems. Topics include decision making theory, intelligent agents, fuzzy logic, multi-agent systems, Bayesian networks, optimization, artificial neural networks, genetic algorithms, expert systems, decision support systems, geographic information systems, case-based reasoning, time series, knowledge management systems, Kansei communication, rough sets, spatial decision analysis, and multi-criteria decision analysis. These technologies have the potential to revolutionize decision making in many areas of management, healthcare, international business, finance, accounting, marketing, military applications, ecommerce, network management, crisis response, building design, information retrieval, and disaster recovery.

Author : Richards J. Heuer Jr.
Publisher : CQ Press
ISBN 13 : 1483323021
Total Pages : 378 pages
Book Rating : 4.22/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis written by Richards J. Heuer Jr. and published by CQ Press. This book was released on 2014-05-28 with total page 378 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this Second Edition of Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, authors Richards J. Heuer Jr. and Randolph H. Pherson showcase fifty-five structured analytic techniques—five new to this edition—that represent the most current best practices in intelligence, law enforcement, homeland security, and business analysis.

Author : Randolph H. Pherson
Publisher : CQ Press
ISBN 13 : 1506368948
Total Pages : 385 pages
Book Rating : 4.48/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis written by Randolph H. Pherson and published by CQ Press. This book was released on 2020-01-14 with total page 385 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Third Edition of Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis by Randolph H. Pherson and Richards J. Heuer Jr showcases sixty-six structured analytic techniques—nine new to this edition—that represent the most current best practices in intelligence, law enforcement, homeland security, and business analysis. With more depth, detail, and utility than existing handbooks, each technique is clearly and systematically explained. Logically organized and richly illustrated, and with spiral binding and tabs that separate techniques into categories, this book is an easy-to-use, comprehensive reference.

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309176980
Total Pages : 352 pages
Book Rating : 4.89/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Intelligence Analysis written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2011-04-08 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. intelligence community (IC) is a complex human enterprise whose success depends on how well the people in it perform their work. Although often aided by sophisticated technologies, these people ultimately rely on their own intellect to identify, synthesize, and communicate the information on which the nation's security depends. The IC's success depends on having trained, motivated, and thoughtful people working within organizations able to understand, value, and coordinate their capabilities. Intelligence Analysis provides up-to-date scientific guidance for the intelligence community (IC) so that it might improve individual and group judgments, communication between analysts, and analytic processes. The papers in this volume provide the detailed evidentiary base for the National Research Council's report, Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences. The opening chapter focuses on the structure, missions, operations, and characteristics of the IC while the following 12 papers provide in-depth reviews of key topics in three areas: analytic methods, analysts, and organizations. Informed by the IC's unique missions and constraints, each paper documents the latest advancements of the relevant science and is a stand-alone resource for the IC's leadership and workforce. The collection allows readers to focus on one area of interest (analytic methods, analysts, or organizations) or even one particular aspect of a category. As a collection, the volume provides a broad perspective of the issues involved in making difficult decisions, which is at the heart of intelligence analysis.