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Author : Athanasios Orphanides
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 70 pages
Book Rating : 4.76/5 ( download)
Download or read book Inflation Targeting Under Imperfect Knowledge written by Athanasios Orphanides and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Ben S. Bernanke
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226044734
Total Pages : 469 pages
Book Rating : 4.36/5 ( download)
Download or read book The Inflation-Targeting Debate written by Ben S. Bernanke and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 469 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past fifteen years, a significant number of industrialized and middle-income countries have adopted inflation targeting as a framework for monetary policymaking. As the name suggests, in such inflation-targeting regimes, the central bank is responsible for achieving a publicly announced target for the inflation rate. While the objective of controlling inflation enjoys wide support among both academic experts and policymakers, and while the countries that have followed this model have generally experienced good macroeconomic outcomes, many important questions about inflation targeting remain. In Inflation Targeting, a distinguished group of contributors explores the many underexamined dimensions of inflation targeting—its potential, its successes, and its limitations—from both a theoretical and an empirical standpoint, and for both developed and emerging economies. The volume opens with a discussion of the optimal formulation of inflation-targeting policy and continues with a debate about the desirability of such a model for the United States. The concluding chapters discuss the special problems of inflation targeting in emerging markets, including the Czech Republic, Poland, and Hungary.
Author : Athanasios Orphanides
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.84/5 ( download)
Download or read book Inflation Targetting Under Imperfect Knowledge written by Athanasios Orphanides and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Charles Freedman
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 145187233X
Total Pages : 27 pages
Book Rating : 4.30/5 ( download)
Download or read book Why Inflation Targeting? written by Charles Freedman and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-04-01 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the second chapter of a forthcoming monograph entitled "On Implementing Full-Fledged Inflation-Targeting Regimes: Saying What You Do and Doing What You Say." We begin by discussing the costs of inflation, including their role in generating boom-bust cycles. Following a general discussion of the need for a nominal anchor, we describe a specific type of monetary anchor, the inflation-targeting regime, and its two key intellectual roots-the absence of long-run trade-offs and the time-inconsistency problem. We conclude by providing a brief introduction to the way in which inflation targeting works.
Author : Athanasios Orphanides
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 76 pages
Book Rating : 4.06/5 ( download)
Download or read book Robust Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge written by Athanasios Orphanides and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the performance and robustness properties of monetary policy rules in an estimated macroeconomic model in which the economy undergoes structural change andwhere private agents and the central bank possess imperfect knowledge about the true structure of the economy. Policymakers follow an interest rate rule aiming to maintain price stability and to minimize fluctuations of unemployment around its natural rate but areuncertain about the economy's natural rates of interest and unemployment and how private agents form expectations. In particular, we consider two models of expectations formation :rational expectations and learning. We show that in this environment the ability to stabilize the real side of the economy is significantly reduced relative to an economy under rational expectations with perfect knowledge. Furthermore, policies that would be optimal under perfect knowledge can perform very poorly if knowledge is imperfect. Efficient policies that take account of private learning and misperceptions of natural rates call for greater policy inertia, a more aggressive response to inflation, and a smaller response to the perceived unemployment gap than would be optimal if everyone had perfect knowledge of the economy. We show that such policies are quite robust to potential misspecification of private sector learning and the magnitude of variation in natural rates.
Author : Athanasios Orphanides
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 46 pages
Book Rating : 4.31/5 ( download)
Download or read book Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy written by Athanasios Orphanides and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the role that imperfect knowledge about the structure of the economy plays in the formation of expectations, macroeconomic dynamics, and the efficient formulation of monetary policy. Economic agents rely on an adaptive learning technology to form expectations and to update continuously their beliefs regarding the dynamic structure of the economy based on incoming data. The process of perpetual learning introduces an additional layer of dynamic interaction between monetary policy and economic outcomes. We find that policies that would be efficient under rational expectations can perform poorly when knowledge is imperfect. In particular, policies that fail to maintain tight control over inflation are prone to episodes in which the public's expectations of inflation become uncoupled from the policy objective and stagflation results, in a pattern similar to that experienced in the United States during the 1970s. Our results highlight the value of effective communication of a central bank's inflation objective and of continued vigilance against inflation in anchoring inflation expectations and fostering macroeconomic stability.
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 32 pages
Book Rating : 4.63/5 ( download)
Download or read book Inflation Targeting Under Imperfect Policy Credibility written by and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Vítor Gaspar
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9781139448567
Total Pages : 160 pages
Book Rating : 4.60/5 ( download)
Download or read book Imperfect Knowledge and Monetary Policy written by Vítor Gaspar and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2006-02-16 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Based on lectures given as part of The Stone Lectures in Economics, this book discusses the problem of formulating monetary policy in practice, under the uncertain circumstances which characterize the real world. The first lecture highlights the limitations of decision rules suggested by the academic literature and recommends an approach involving, first, a firm reliance on the few fundamental and robust results of monetary economics and, secondly, a pragmatic attitude to policy implementation, taking into consideration lessons from central banking experience. The second lecture revisits Milton Friedman's questions about the effects of active stabilization policies on business cycle fluctuations. It explores the implications of a simple model where the policy maker has imperfect knowledge about potential output and the private sector forms expectations according to adaptive learning. This lecture shows that imperfect knowledge limits the scope for active stabilization policy and strengthens the case for conservatism.
Author : Man-Keung Tang
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1463902190
Total Pages : 34 pages
Book Rating : 4.93/5 ( download)
Download or read book Communication of Central Bank Thinking and Inflation Dynamics written by Man-Keung Tang and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-08-01 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the role of central bank communication of its economic assessment in shaping inflation dynamics. Imperfect information about the central bank's assessment - or the basis for monetary policy decisions - could complicate the private sector's learning about its policy response function. We show how clear central bank communication, which facilitates agents' understanding of policy reasoning, could bring about less volatile inflation and interest rate dynamics, and afford the authorities with greater policy flexibility. We then estimate a simple monetary model to fit the Mexican economy, and use the suggested paramters to illustrate the model's quantitative implications in scenarios where the timing, nature and persistence of shocks are uncertain.
Author : Isabelle Salle
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 42 pages
Book Rating : 4.34/5 ( download)
Download or read book Inflation Targeting in a Learning Economy written by Isabelle Salle and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the performances of an inflation targeting regime in a learning economy whose functioning is tackled via an Agent-Based Model (ABM). While the structure of our ABM has features in common with those of the New Keynesian canonical modelling framework, we model the individual behaviour of the agents under procedural rationality in the sense of Simon (1971) [Simon, H., The Theory of Problem Solving, in 'IFIP Congress (1)', 1971, pp. 261-277]. Instead of assuming that households and firms fully optimize on an intertemporal basis beforehand, and make use of rational expectations in that respect, we assume that their behaviour is guided by simple rules of thumb - or heuristics - while a continuous learning process governs the evolution of those rules. Departures from the rational expectations equilibrium endogenously arise from that learning behaviour. Finally, the central bank implements an inflation targeting regime via a monetary policy rule. Our aim is then to analyse the interplay between the learning mechanisms operating at the individual level and the features and performances of the inflation targeting regime. In such a setting, we show the prime importance of the credibility of central bank's announcements regarding macroeconomic stabilization outcomes, as well as the beneficial role played by the inflation target as an anchoring device for private inflation expectations. We also demonstrate the potential welfare cost of imperfect public information and contribute to the debate on optimal monetary policy rule under imperfect common knowledge and uncertainty.
