Future Studies And Counterfactual Analysis

Author : Theodore J. Gordon
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3030184374
Total Pages : 194 pages
Book Rating : 4.77/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Future Studies and Counterfactual Analysis written by Theodore J. Gordon and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-06-14 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this volume, the authors contribute to futures research by placing the counterfactual question in the future tense. They explore the possible outcomes of future, and consider how future decisions are turning points that may produce different global outcomes. This book focuses on a dozen or so intractable issues that span politics, religion, and technology, each addressed in individual chapters. Until now, most scenarios written by futurists have been built on cause and effect narratives or depended on numerical models derived from historical relationships. In contrast, many of the scenarios written for this book are point descriptions of future discontinuities, a form allows more thought-provoking presentations. Ultimately, this book demonstrates that counterfactual thinking and point scenarios of discontinuities are new, groundbreaking tools for futurists.

Author : Wendell Bell
Publisher : Transaction Publishers
ISBN 13 : 141282379X
Total Pages : 406 pages
Book Rating : 4.91/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Foundations of Futures Studies, Volume 1 written by Wendell Bell and published by Transaction Publishers. This book was released on with total page 406 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Futures studies is a new field of inquiry involving systematic and explicit thinking about alternative futures. It aims to demystify the future, make possibilities for the future more known to us, and increase human control over the future. Author Wendell Bell brings together futurist intellectual tools, describing and explaining not only the methods, but also the nature, concepts, theories, and exemplars of the field. Now available in paperback with a new preface from the author, Foundations of Future Studies is the fundamental work on the subject. Bell illustrates how this sphere of intellectual activity offers hope for the future of humanity and concrete ways of realizing that hope in the real world of everyday life. His book will appeal to all interested in futures studies, sociology, economics, political science, and history.

Author : Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 0691215073
Total Pages : 355 pages
Book Rating : 4.75/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2020-06-30 with total page 355 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan. Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume--including James Fearon, Richard Lebow, Margaret Levi, Bruce Russett, and Barry Weingast--find such counterfactual conjectures not only useful, but necessary for drawing causal inferences from historical data. Given the importance of counterfactuals, it is perhaps surprising that we lack standards for evaluating them. To fill this gap, Philip Tetlock and Aaron Belkin propose a set of criteria for distinguishing plausible from implausible counterfactual conjectures across a wide range of applications. The contributors to this volume make use of these and other criteria to evaluate counterfactuals that emerge in diverse methodological contexts including comparative case studies, game theory, and statistical analysis. Taken together, these essays go a long way toward establishing a more nuanced and rigorous framework for assessing counterfactual arguments about world politics in particular and about the social sciences more broadly.

Author : Ph D. Noel Hendrickson
Publisher : Lulu.com
ISBN 13 : 1105055639
Total Pages : 87 pages
Book Rating : 4.38/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Counterfactual Reasoning written by Ph D. Noel Hendrickson and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2011-09-16 with total page 87 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Counterfactual reasoning evaluates conditional claims about alternate possibilities and their consequences (i.e., ?What If? statements). Counterfactuals are essential to intelligence analysis. The process of counterfactual reasoning has three stages. First, one must establish the particular way in which the alternate possibility comes to be (i.e., develop its ?back-story?). Second, one must evaluate the events that occur between the time of the alternate possibility and the time for which one is considering its consequences. And third, one must examine the possible consequences of the alternate possibility's back-story and the events that follow it. In doing so, an analyst must connect conclusions to speci

Author : Brita Schwarz
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 042971680X
Total Pages : 122 pages
Book Rating : 4.05/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Methods In Futures Studies written by Brita Schwarz and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-03-04 with total page 122 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents three examples of futures research that illustrate the problems of applying knowledge during the course of a futures research project, the ways in which different methodologies interact, and various means of combining and adapting methodological tools and techniques.

Author : Eleonora Masini
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 168 pages
Book Rating : 4.22/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Why Futures Studies? written by Eleonora Masini and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Author : Jose Valciukas
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1351519425
Total Pages : 578 pages
Book Rating : 4.27/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Foundations of Futures Studies written by Jose Valciukas and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-07-05 with total page 578 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Futures studies is a new field of inquiry involving systematic and explicit thinking about alternative futures. It aims to demystify the future, make possibilities for the future more known to us, and increase human control over the future. This book summarizes and expands contributions of futurists to the envisioning power and well-being of humanity. Bell brings together futurist intellectual tools, describing and explaining not only the methods, but also the nature, concepts, theories, and exemplars of the field.Foundations of Futures Studies fulfills Bell's five main purposes for writing this two-volume effort: (1) to show that futures studies, like other fields from anthropology to zoology, exists as an identifiable sphere of intellectual activity; (2) to create a teaching instrument that can be used as a basic text for core courses in futures studies; (3) to futurize the thinking of specialists in other disciplines; (4) to contribute to the further development and improvement of futures studies; and (5) to provide tools to empower both ordinary people and leaders to act in ways that create better futures for themselves and their societies. Bell maintains that despite its sometimes doomsday rhetorical style and widespread use by special interests, futures studies offers hope for the future of humanity and concrete ways of realizing that hope in the real world of our everyday lives. It will appeal to all interested in futures studies, as well as sociologists, economists, political scientists, and historians.

Author : Canada. Secretariat for futures studies
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 122 pages
Book Rating : 4.66/5 ( download)

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Download or read book The Lamontagne Survey of Futures Studies written by Canada. Secretariat for futures studies and published by . This book was released on 1976 with total page 122 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 332 pages
Book Rating : 4.33/5 ( download)

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Download or read book The Study of the Future written by and published by . This book was released on 1977 with total page 332 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Author : Riyukta Raghunath
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030534529
Total Pages : 224 pages
Book Rating : 4.23/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Possible Worlds Theory and Counterfactual Historical Fiction written by Riyukta Raghunath and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-09-10 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers a comprehensive Possible Worlds framework with which to analyse counterfactual historical fiction. Counterfactual historical fiction is a literary genre that comprises narratives set in worlds whose histories run contrary to the history of our world, usually speculating on what would have happened had a significant historical event (such as a war) turned out differently. The author develops a systematic critical approach based on a customised model of Possible Worlds Theory supplemented by cognitive concepts that account for the different processes that readers go through when they read counterfactual historical fiction, a genre which relies heavily on pre-existing knowledge about history and culture. This book will be of interest to anyone working with Possible Worlds, including within the fields of philosophy, literary studies, stylistics, cognitive poetics, and narratology.