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Author : Nazli Choucri
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780716700593
Total Pages : 468 pages
Book Rating : 4.9X/5 ( download)
Download or read book Forecasting in International Relations written by Nazli Choucri and published by . This book was released on 1978 with total page 468 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Andreas Wenger
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1000088367
Total Pages : 417 pages
Book Rating : 4.66/5 ( download)
Download or read book The Politics and Science of Prevision written by Andreas Wenger and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2020-05-28 with total page 417 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book inquires into the use of prediction at the intersection of politics and academia, and reflects upon the implications of future-oriented policy-making across different fields. The volume focuses on the key intricacies and fallacies of prevision in a time of complexity, uncertainty, and unpredictability. The first part of the book discusses different academic perspectives and contributions to future-oriented policy-making. The second part discusses the role of future knowledge in decision-making across different empirical issues such as climate, health, finance, bio- and nuclear weapons, civil war, and crime. It analyses how prediction is integrated into public policy and governance, and how in return governance structures influence the making of knowledge about the future. Contributors integrate two analytical dimensions in their chapters: the epistemology of prevision and the political and ethical implications of prevision. In this way, the volume contributes to a better understanding of the complex interaction and feedback loops between the processes of creating knowledge about the future and the application of this future knowledge in public policy and governance. This book will be of much interest to students of security studies, political science, sociology, technology studies, and International Relations. The Open Access version of this book, available at https://www.routledge.com/The-Politics-and-Science-of-Prevision-Governing-and-Probing/Wenger-Jasper-Cavelty/p/book/9780367900748, has been made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives 4.0 license.
Author : Warren R. Phillips
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 84 pages
Book Rating : 4.95/5 ( download)
Download or read book Forecasting International Relations written by Warren R. Phillips and published by . This book was released on 1969 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Dimensionality of Nations Project (DON) is basic research on international relations attempting to determine the major patterns in the behavior and characteristics of nations and the linkages between these patterns. It is potentially relevant to practical problems which have to do with the nature and direction of international relations. The paper gives a brief overview of the project itself, lists the problems associated with prediction in international relations, and lays out the approaches to prediction and time series analysis employed on the Project. The final section discusses the relationship of DON to foreign and defense policies. (Author).
Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 030947390X
Total Pages : 91 pages
Book Rating : 4.03/5 ( download)
Download or read book Emerging Trends and Methods in International Security written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2018-05-18 with total page 91 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Beginning in October 2017, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine organized a set of workshops designed to gather information for the Decadal Survey of Social and Behavioral Sciences for Applications to National Security. The second workshop focused on emerging trends and methods in international security and this publication summarizes the presentations and discussions from this workshop.
Author : Jakub Bijak
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9048188970
Total Pages : 318 pages
Book Rating : 4.70/5 ( download)
Download or read book Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View written by Jakub Bijak and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-10-23 with total page 318 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: International migration is becoming an increasingly important element of contemporary demographic dynamics and yet, due to its high volatility, it remains the most unpredictable element of population change. In Europe, population forecasting is especially difficult because good-quality data on migration are lacking. There is a clear need for reliable methods of predicting migration since population forecasts are indispensable for rational decision making in many areas, including labour markets, social security or spatial planning and organisation. In addressing these issues, this book adopts a Bayesian statistical perspective, which allows for a formal incorporation of expert judgement, while describing uncertainty in a coherent and explicit manner. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics is assumed. The outcomes are discussed from the point of view of forecast users (decision makers), with the aim to show the relevance and usefulness of the presented methods in practical applications.
Author : Andrea Ceron
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1317134133
Total Pages : 196 pages
Book Rating : 4.38/5 ( download)
Download or read book Politics and Big Data written by Andrea Ceron and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-12-19 with total page 196 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The importance of social media as a way to monitor an electoral campaign is well established. Day-by-day, hour-by-hour evaluation of the evolution of online ideas and opinion allows observers and scholars to monitor trends and momentum in public opinion well before traditional polls. However, there are difficulties in recording and analyzing often brief, unverified comments while the unequal age, gender, social and racial representation among social media users can produce inaccurate forecasts of final polls. Reviewing the different techniques employed using social media to nowcast and forecast elections, this book assesses its achievements and limitations while presenting a new technique of "sentiment analysis" to improve upon them. The authors carry out a meta-analysis of the existing literature to show the conditions under which social media-based electoral forecasts prove most accurate while new case studies from France, the United States and Italy demonstrate how much more accurate "sentiment analysis" can prove.
Author : Michael P. Clements
Publisher : OUP USA
ISBN 13 : 0195398645
Total Pages : 732 pages
Book Rating : 4.49/5 ( download)
Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Michael P. Clements and published by OUP USA. This book was released on 2011-07-08 with total page 732 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic theory to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models.
Author : Jeffrey A. Friedman
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0190938048
Total Pages : 272 pages
Book Rating : 4.48/5 ( download)
Download or read book War and Chance written by Jeffrey A. Friedman and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2019-04-01 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty surrounds every major decision in international politics. Yet there is almost always room for reasonable people to disagree about what that uncertainty entails. No one can reliably predict the outbreak of armed conflict, forecast economic recessions, anticipate terrorist attacks, or estimate the countless other risks that shape foreign policy choices. Many scholars and practitioners therefore believe that it is better to keep foreign policy debates focused on the facts - that it is, at best, a waste of time to debate uncertain judgments that will often prove to be wrong. In War and Chance, Jeffrey A. Friedman shows how foreign policy officials often try to avoid the challenge of assessing uncertainty, and argues that this behavior undermines high-stakes decision making. Drawing on an innovative combination of historical and experimental evidence, he explains how foreign policy analysts can assess uncertainty in a manner that is theoretically coherent, empirically meaningful, politically defensible, practically useful, and sometimes logically necessary for making sound choices. Each of these claims contradicts widespread skepticism about the value of probabilistic reasoning in international politics, and shows how placing greater emphasis on assessing uncertainty can improve nearly any foreign policy debate. A clear-eyed examination of the logic, psychology, and politics of assessing uncertainty, War and Chance provides scholars and practitioners with new foundations for understanding one of the most controversial elements of foreign policy discourse.
Author : Barry B. Hughes
Publisher : Academic Press
ISBN 13 : 0128134224
Total Pages : 330 pages
Book Rating : 4.21/5 ( download)
Download or read book International Futures written by Barry B. Hughes and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2019-03-20 with total page 330 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system. Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years. Helps readers understand the IFs system, not at a detailed equation and technical level, but in terms of the important decisions made that dominate the structure and long-term behavior Presents information on the universe of long-term global forecasting systems, key decisions made, and the range of similarities and differences in the systems Covers the relationship between long-term forecasts in a variety of global issues and the forecasting systems and assumptions that underly them (essential information for forecast consumers)
Author : Nada Sanders
Publisher : Business Expert Press
ISBN 13 : 1606498711
Total Pages : 122 pages
Book Rating : 4.12/5 ( download)
Download or read book Forecasting Fundamentals written by Nada Sanders and published by Business Expert Press. This book was released on 2016-11-14 with total page 122 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is for everyone who wants to make better forecasts. It is not about mathematics and statistics. It is about following a well-established forecasting process to create and implement good forecasts. This is true whether you are forecasting global markets, sales of SKUs, competitive strategy, or market disruptions. Today, most forecasts are generated using software. However, no amount of technology and statistics can compensate for a poor forecasting process. Forecasting is not just about generating a number. Forecasters need to understand the problems they are trying to solve. They also need to follow a process that is justifiable to other parties and be implemented in practice. This is what the book is about. Accurate forecasts are essential for predicting demand, identifying new market opportunities, forecasting risks, disruptions, innovation, competition, market growth and trends. Companies can navigate this daunting landscape and improve their forecasts by following some well-established principles. This book is written to provide the fundamentals business leaders need in order to make good forecasts. These fundamentals hold true regardless of what is being forecast and what technology is being used. It provides the basic foundational principles all companies need to achieve competitive forecast accuracy.
