Forecasting And Monetary Policy Analysis In Low Income Countries

Author : Michal Andrle
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475516525
Total Pages : 106 pages
Book Rating : 4.24/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book Forecasting and Monetary Policy Analysis in Low-Income Countries written by Michal Andrle and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-03-07 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop a semi-structural new-Keynesian open-economy model, with separate food and non-food inflation dynamics, for forecasting and monetary policy analysis in low-income countries and apply it to Kenya. We use the model to run several policy-relevant exercises. First, we filter international and Kenyan data (on output, inflation and its components, exchange rates and interest rates) to recover a model-based decomposition of most variables into trends (or potential values) and temporary movements (or gaps)—including for the international and domestic relative price of food. Second, we use the filtration exercise to recover the sequence of domestic and foreign macroeconomic shocks that account for business cycle dynamics in Kenya over the last few years, with a special emphasis on the various factors (international food prices, monetary policy) driving inflation. Third, we perform an out-of-sample forecast to identify where the economy—and therefore policy—was likely headed given the inflationary pressures at the end of our sample (2011Q2). We find that while imported food price shocks have been an important source of inflation, both in 2008 and more recently, accommodating monetary policy has also played a role, most notably through its effect on the nominal exchange rate. The model correctly predicted that a policy tightening was required, although the actual interest rate increase was larger. We discuss implications for the use of model-based policy analysis in low income countries.

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498344062
Total Pages : 74 pages
Book Rating : 4.67/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low-Income and Other Developing Countries written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-10-23 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past two decades, many low- and lower-middle income countries (LLMICs) have improved control over fiscal policy, liberalized and deepened financial markets, and stabilized inflation at moderate levels. Monetary policy frameworks that have helped achieve these ends are being challenged by continued financial development and increased exposure to global capital markets. Many policymakers aspire to move beyond the basics of stability to implement monetary policy frameworks that better anchor inflation and promote macroeconomic stability and growth. Many of these LLMICs are thus considering and implementing improvements to their monetary policy frameworks. The recent successes of some LLMICs and the experiences of emerging and advanced economies, both early in their policy modernization process and following the global financial crisis, are valuable in identifying desirable features of such frameworks. This paper draws on those lessons to provide guidance on key elements of effective monetary policy frameworks for LLMICs.

Author : Michal Andrle
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475538006
Total Pages : 44 pages
Book Rating : 4.07/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book Money Targeting in a Modern Forecasting and Policy Analysis System written by Michal Andrle and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-11-25 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We extend the framework in Andrle and others (2013) to incorporate an explicit role for money targets and target misses in the analysis of monetary policy in low-income countries (LICs), with an application to Kenya. We provide a general specification that can nest various types of money targeting (ranging from targets based on optimal money demand forecasts to those derived from simple money growth rules), interest-rate based frameworks, and intermediate cases. Our framework acknowledges that ex-post adherence to targets is in itself an objective of policy in LICs; here we provide a novel interpretation of target misses in terms of structural shocks (aggregate demand, policy, shocks to money demand, etc). In the case of Kenya, we find that: (i) the setting of money targets is consistent with money demand forecasting, (ii) targets have not played a systematic role in monetary policy, and (iii) target misses mainly reflect shocks to money demand. Simulations of the model under alternative policy specifications show that the stronger the ex-post target adherence, the greater the macroeconomic volatility. Our findings highlight the benefits of a model-based approach to monetary policy analysis in LICs, including in countries with money-targeting frameworks.

Author : Tobias Adrian
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 148432594X
Total Pages : 297 pages
Book Rating : 4.40/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book Advancing the Frontiers of Monetary Policy written by Tobias Adrian and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-04-13 with total page 297 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Contributors working at the International Monetary Fund present 14 chapters on the development of monetary policy over the past quarter century through the lens of the evolution of inflation-forecast targeting. They describe the principles and practices of inflation-forecast targeting, including managing expectations, the implementation of a forecasting and policy analysis system, monetary operations, monetary policy and financial stability, financial conditions, and transparency and communications; aspects of inflation-forecast targeting in Canada, the Czech Republic, India, and the US; and monetary policy challenges faced by low-income countries and how inflation-forecast targeting can provide an anchor in countries with different economic structures and circumstances.

Author : Ms.Filiz Unsal
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1455201170
Total Pages : 33 pages
Book Rating : 4.74/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book On the Optimal Adherence to Money Targets in a New-Keynesian Framework written by Ms.Filiz Unsal and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-06-01 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many low-income countries continue to describe their monetary policy framework in terms of targets on monetary aggregates. This contrasts with most modern discussions of monetary policy, and with most practice. We extend the new-Keynesian model to provide a role for “M” in the conduct of monetary policy, and examine the conditions under which some adherence to money targets is optimal. In the spirit of Poole (1970), this role is based on the incompleteness of information available to the central bank, a pervasive issues in these countries. Ex-ante announcements/forecasts for money growth are consistent with a Taylor rule for the relevant short-term interest rate. Ex-post, the policy maker must choose his relative adherence to interest rate and money growth targets. Drawing on the method in Svensson and Woodford (2004), we show that the optimal adherence to ex-ante targets is equivalent to a signal extraction problem where the central bank uses the money market information to update its estimate of the state of the economy. We estimate the model, using Bayesian methods, for Tanzania, Uganda (both de jure money targeters), and Ghana (a de jure inflation targeter), and compare the de facto adherence to targets with the optimal use of money market information in each country.

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498344054
Total Pages : 89 pages
Book Rating : 4.50/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low-Income and Other Developing Countries — Background Paper — Country Experiences written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-10-27 with total page 89 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This background paper focuses on the experiences of evolving monetary policy frameworks in nine individual countries and three thematic groupings of countries. The country case studies are complemented by analyses of common issues faced by countries in currency unions in the CFA franc zone, selected resource rich countries, and advanced economies and emerging markets during their modernization process of monetary policy regimes. Finally, the background paper also contains a discussion on the benefits of effective communication in conducting monetary policy.

Author : Francis Vitek
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451873859
Total Pages : 44 pages
Book Rating : 4.56/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy written by Francis Vitek and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-10-01 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a panel unobserved components model of the monetary transmission mechanism in the world economy, disaggregated into its fifteen largest national economies. This structural macroeconometric model features extensive linkages between the real and financial sectors, both within and across economies. A variety of monetary policy analysis and forecasting applications of the estimated model are demonstrated, based on a novel Bayesian framework for conditioning on judgment.

Author : John C. Odling-Smee
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 155775327X
Total Pages : 68 pages
Book Rating : 4.74/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book Taking Stock of IMF Capacity Development on Monetary Policy Forecasting and Policy Analysis Systems written by John C. Odling-Smee and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1993 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper takes stock of forecasting and policy analysis system capacity development (FPAS CD), drawing extensively on the experience and lessons learned from developing FPAS capacity in the central banks. By sharing the insights gained during FPAS CD delivery and outlining the typical tools developed in the process, the paper aims to facilitate the understanding of FPAS CD within the IMF and to inform future CD on building macroeconomic frameworks. As such, the paper offers a qualitative assessment of the experience with FPAS CD delivery and the use of FPAS in the decision-making process in central banks.

Author : Mr.Alfredo Baldini
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475574606
Total Pages : 47 pages
Book Rating : 4.09/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book Monetary Policy in Low Income Countries in the Face of the Global Crisis written by Mr.Alfredo Baldini and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-04-01 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop a DSGE model with a banking sector to analyze the impact of the financial crisis on Zambia and the role of the monetary policy response. We view the crisis as a combination of three related shocks: a worsening in the terms of the trade, an increase in the country’s risk premium, and a decrease in the risk appetite of local banks. We characterize monetary policy as "stop and go": initially tight, subsequently loose. Simulations of the model broadly match the path of the economy during this period. We find that the initial policy response contributed to the domestic impact of the crisis by further tightening financial conditions. We study the factors driving the "stop" part of policy and derive policy implications for central banks in low-income countries.

Author : Juan Antonio Morales
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0192597027
Total Pages : 360 pages
Book Rating : 4.21/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book Monetary Policy in Low Financial Development Countries written by Juan Antonio Morales and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2021-07-22 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Monetary Policy in Low Financial Development Countries provides a broad coverage of the monetary policy issues faced by developing countries with low financial depth. These low and lower middle income countries are characterized by the predominance of bank finance, shallow financial markets, low financial inclusion, weak integration with world capital markets, and a high degree of informality in economic activity. Monetary policy acquires special twists, making it different in many aspects from the policies followed in advanced and emerging market economies. This book covers the main facets of monetary policy making, using an approach that combines discussions of theoretical arguments, of results from empirical studies and of relevant policy experiences. It presents the monetary policy instruments that central banks rely on in these countries. It assesses the specificities of their monetary transmission mechanism, i.e. the way central banks' actions affect output and prices. It evaluates the advantages, drawbacks, and challenges of the different nominal anchors they may choose from: exchange rate targeting, monetary targeting, and inflation targeting. This discussion is set against the background of the three main goals pursued by central banks: price, output, and financial stability. Particular attention is devoted to the issue of the credibility of central banks and to the trade-offs they face when external shocks, to which these countries are very vulnerable, lead to conflicts among the three goals they pursue. The authors also cover more specific topics, such as the coordination between monetary and fiscal policy, the challenges raised by dollarization, the implications of informal labour markets and of microfinance institutions for monetary policy-making, as well as the role of models for forecasting and policy evaluation by central banks.