External Vulnerability In Emerging Market Economies

Author : Mr.Christian B. Mulder
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451851146
Total Pages : 42 pages
Book Rating : 4.44/5 ( download)

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Download or read book External Vulnerability in Emerging Market Economies written by Mr.Christian B. Mulder and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-07-01 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the factors behind the 1994 and 1997 crises and whether these can explain the 1998 crisis. The study reveals that: (i) variables used in an Early Warning System model developed by IMF staff scored well in predicting the 1998 crisis out-of-sample; (ii) all three crisis episodes can be well explained by a parsimonious set of core fundamentals and liquidity related variables; and (iii) the presence of an IMF-supported program significantly reduced the depth of crises. The results suggest that as a rule of thumb countries should hold reserves to the tune of short-term debt to avoid contagion-related crises, provided their current deficits are modest and their real effective exchange rates are not significantly misaligned.

Author : Matthieu Bussière
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 41 pages
Book Rating : 4.47/5 ( download)

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Download or read book External Vulnerability in Emerging Market Economies written by Matthieu Bussière and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the factors behind the 1994 and 1997 crises and whether these can explain the 1998 crisis. The study reveals that: (i) variables used in an Early Warning System model developed by IMF staff scored well in predicting the 1998 crisis out-of-sample; (ii) all three crisis episodes can be well explained by a parsimonious set of core fundamentals and liquidity related variables; and (iii) the presence of an IMF-supported program significantly reduced the depth of crises.

Author : John Hawkins
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 48 pages
Book Rating : 4.87/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Measuring Potential Vulnerabilities in Emerging Market Economies written by John Hawkins and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper describes some experiments with the construction of relatively simple indices which summarise in a systematic and objective way information about emerging economies currently under pressure in financial markets and those vulnerable to such pressure in the future. A survey of the literature suggests financial crises are typically preceded by overvalued exchange rates, inadequate international reserves, recessions and excessive credit growth. These indicators and others, such as short-term external debt, which appear more important in recent crises are included in the summary indices of vulnerability. The vulnerability indices are shown to have modest predictive power for the pressure index but are far from conclusive in themselves.

Author : MissMali Chivakul
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1455209376
Total Pages : 36 pages
Book Rating : 4.78/5 ( download)

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Download or read book The Impact of the Great Recession on Emerging Markets written by MissMali Chivakul and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-10-01 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the impact of the recent global crisis on emerging market economies (EMs). Our cross-country analysis shows that the impact of the crisis was more pronounced in those EMs that had initial weaker fundamentals and greater financial and trade linkages. This effect is observed along a number of dimensions, such as growth, stock market performance, sovereign spreads, and credit growth. This paper also shows that during this crisis, pre-crisis reserve holdings helped to mitigate the initial growth collapse. This finding contrasts with other studies that fail to find a significant relationship between reserves and the growth decline. This paper argues that our preferred measure of impact is a more accurate reflection of the true impact of the crisis on EMs.

Author : Morris Goldstein
Publisher : Peterson Institute
ISBN 13 : 9780881322378
Total Pages : 166 pages
Book Rating : 4.77/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Assessing Financial Vulnerability written by Morris Goldstein and published by Peterson Institute. This book was released on 2000 with total page 166 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study reviews the literature on the origins of currency and banking crises. It presents empirical tests on the performance of alternative early-warning indicators for emerging-market economies. The book also identifies crisis-threshold values for early-warning indicators.

Author : Mr.Richard Hemming
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 132 pages
Book Rating : 4.8Y/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Fiscal Vulnerability and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies written by Mr.Richard Hemming and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-05-23 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent crises in Argentina and Turkey illustrate the continuing importance of fiscal problems in precipitating financial crises, and whatever their cause, financial crises always have important fiscal dimensions. market economies, particularly with regards to the fiscal causes of crises; fiscal vulnerability indicators which can help to predict crises; whether fiscal variables explain the severity of crises; and the fiscal consequences of crises. The study uses a large set of fiscal variables for 29 emerging market economies over the period 1970-2000; as well as detailed case studies of 11 recent crises in emerging market economies to examine some of the structural and institutional dimensions of fiscal vulnerability.

Author : Mr.Etienne B. Yehoue
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451873735
Total Pages : 44 pages
Book Rating : 4.33/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Unconventional Central Bank Measures for Emerging Economies written by Mr.Etienne B. Yehoue and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-10-01 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Unconventional central bank measures are playing a key policy role for many advanced economies in the 2007-09 global crisis. Are they playing a similar role for emerging economies? Emerging economies have widely used unconventional foreign exchange and domestic short-term liquidity easing measures. Their use of credit easing and quantitative easing measures has been much more limited. Thus, unconventional measures are much less important for emerging economies compared to advanced economies in achieving broader macroeconomic objectives. The difference can be attributed to the relatively limited financial stress in emerging economies, their external vulnerabilities and their limited scope for quasifiscal activities.

Author : Norman Loayza
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 33 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Download or read book The Structural Determinants of External Vulnerability written by Norman Loayza and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2006 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors examine empirically how domestic structural characteristics related to openness and product- and factor-market flexibility influence the impact that terms-of-trade shocks can have on aggregate output. For this purpose, they apply an econometric methodology based on semi-structural vector auto-regressions to a panel of 90 countries with annual observations for the period 1974-2000. Using this methodology, the authors isolate and standardize the shocks, estimate their impact on GDP, and examine how this impact depends on the domestic conditions outlined above. They find that larger trade openness magnifies the output impact of external shocks, particularly the negative ones, while imporvements in labor market flexibility and financial openness reduce their impact. Domestic financial depth has a more nuanced role in stabilizing the economy. It helps reduce the impact of external shocks particularly in environments of high exposure, that is, when trade and financial openness are high, firm entry in unrestricted, and labor markets are rigid.

Author : International Monetary Fund. Policy Development and Review Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498330274
Total Pages : 63 pages
Book Rating : 4.75/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Debt-Related Vulnerabilities and Financial Crises - an Application of the Balance Sheet Approach to Emerging Market Countries written by International Monetary Fund. Policy Development and Review Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2004-01-07 with total page 63 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NULL

Author : Mr.Brad Setser
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1589064259
Total Pages : 59 pages
Book Rating : 4.56/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Debt-Related Vulnerabilities and Financial Crises written by Mr.Brad Setser and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2005-10-24 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The analysis of currency and maturity mismatches in sectoral balance sheets has increasingly become a regular element in the IMF’s tool kit for surveillance in emerging market countries. This paper describes this so-called balance sheet approach and shows how it can be applied to detect vulnerabilities and shape policy advice. It also provides a broad-brushed overview of how balance sheet vulnerabilities have evolved over the past decade and cites a number of case studies.