External Shocks Policies And Tail Shifts In Real Exchange Rates

Author : Mr. Nicolas E Magud
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 51 pages
Book Rating : 4.19/5 ( download)

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Download or read book External Shocks, Policies, and Tail-Shifts in Real Exchange Rates written by Mr. Nicolas E Magud and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-06-23 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We use panel quantile regressions to study extreme (rather than average) movements in the distribution of the real effective exchange rate (REER) of small open economies. We document that global uncertainty (VIX) and global financial conditions (U.S. monetary policy) shocks have a strong impact on the distribution of the REER changes, with larger impacts in the tails of the distribution, and especially in economies with shallower FX markets, lower central bank credibility, and higher credit risk (i.e., weaker macro fundamentals). Foreign exchange intervention (FXI) partially offsets the impact of these shocks, especially in the left tail (large depreciations) and particularly in economies with weaker fundamentals but, more importantly, when FXI is used sporadically. Thus, our results highlight the importance of deepening FX markets, improving central bank credibility, and strengthening macro fundamentals against the potential dynamic trade-offs of overreliance on a policy that would exacerbate the previously mentioned frictions. While our results point to low effectiveness of capital flow management in preventing large REER movements, they seem to enable more impactful foreign exchange intervention in the immediate aftermath of shocks.

Author : Mr.Peter Montiel
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451849648
Total Pages : 50 pages
Book Rating : 4.46/5 ( download)

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Download or read book External Shocks and Inflation in Developing Countries Under a Real Exchange Rate Rule written by Mr.Peter Montiel and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1992-09-01 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper shows that the response of inflation to external shocks is very different when the authorities target the real exchange rate than when they follow a fixed exchange rate or a preannounced crawling peg. Specifically, shocks that would have no effect on the steady-state inflation rate under a fixed exchange rate are either inflationary or deflationary under a real exchange rate rule. Moreover, irrespective of the degree of capital mobility, the authorities will find it difficult to mitigate the destabilizing effects of real shocks on the price level by using monetary policy, except possibly in the very short run.

Author : Guillermo Calvo
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 58 pages
Book Rating : 4.13/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Targeting the Real Exchange Rate written by Guillermo Calvo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1994-02 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a theoretical and empirical analysis of policies aimed at setting a more depreciated level of the real exchange rate. An intertemporal optimizing model suggests that, in the absence of changes in fiscal policy, a more depreciated level of the real exchange can only be attained temporarily. This can be achieved by means of higher inflation and/or higher real interest rates, depending on the degree of capital mobility. Evidence for Brazil, Chile, and Colombia supports the model’s prediction that undervalued real exchange rates are associated with higher inflation.

Author : GASTON. SAHAY GELOS (RATNA.)
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 2040 pages
Book Rating : 4.63/5 ( download)

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Download or read book SHOCKS AND CAPITAL FLOWS written by GASTON. SAHAY GELOS (RATNA.) and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023 with total page 2040 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Author : Rui Mano
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513521500
Total Pages : 44 pages
Book Rating : 4.03/5 ( download)

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Download or read book One Shock, Many Policy Responses written by Rui Mano and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-01-17 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Policymakers have relied on a wide range of policy tools to cope with capital flow shocks. And yet, the effects and interaction of these policies remain under debate, as does the motivation for using them. In this paper, quantile local projections are used to estimate the entire distribution of future policy responses to portfolio flow shocks for 20 emerging markets and understand the variety of policy choices across the sample. To assuage endogeneity concerns, estimates rely on the fact that global capital flows are exogenous from the viewpoint of any one of these countries. The paper finds that: (i) policy responses to capital flow shocks are heterogeneous across countries, fat-tailed—“extreme” responses tend to be more elastic than “typical” responses—and asymmetric—“extreme” responses tend to be more elastic with respect to outflows than to inflows; (ii) country characteristics are linked to policy choices—with cross-country differences in forex intervention relating to the size of balance sheet vulnerabilities and the depth of the forex market; (iii) the use of targeted macroprudential policy and capital flows management measures can help “free the hands” of monetary policy by allowing it to focus more squarely on domestic cyclical developments.

Author : Mr.Mohsin S. Khan
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 9781557752093
Total Pages : 38 pages
Book Rating : 4.95/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Exchange Rate Policy in Developing Countries written by Mr.Mohsin S. Khan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1991-05-15 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper addresses analytical aspects of exchange rate policy and emphasizes the relationship among exchange rate flexibility, financial discipline, and international competitiveness.

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451976925
Total Pages : 40 pages
Book Rating : 4.22/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Policy Assignment Strategies with Somewhat Flexible Exchange Rates Policy written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1988-05-13 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The choice of assigning monetary or fiscal policy to external balance is complicated when the authorities are concerned with both the current account balance and the exchange rate. A strategy of using monetary policy to control the current account via the exchange rate may fail, because the relative-price effect is likely to be offset by the effect of monetary policy on aggregate demand. An alternative strategy, in which fiscal policy is assigned to limit shifts in the current account while the exchange rate is not directly targeted, may have a better chance of having favorable effects on both variables.

Author : Gustavo Adler
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513534602
Total Pages : 42 pages
Book Rating : 4.02/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Unveiling the Effects of Foreign Exchange Intervention written by Gustavo Adler and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-06-23 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the effect of foreign exchange intervention on the exchange rate relying on an instrumental-variables panel approach. We find robust evidence that intervention affects the level of the exchange rate in an economically meaningful way. A purchase of foreign currency of 1 percentage point of GDP causes a depreciation of the nominal and real exchange rates in the ranges of [1.7-2.0] percent and [1.4-1.7] percent respectively. The effects are found to be quite persistent. The paper also explores possible asymmetric effects, and whether effectiveness depends on the depth of domestic financial markets.

Author : Mr.Kenneth Rogoff
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451875843
Total Pages : 85 pages
Book Rating : 4.43/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes written by Mr.Kenneth Rogoff and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-12-01 with total page 85 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using recent advances in the classification of exchange rate regimes, this paper finds no support for the popular bipolar view that countries will tend over time to move to the polar extremes of free float or rigid peg. Rather, intermediate regimes have shown remarkable durability. The analysis suggests that as economies mature, the value of exchange rate flexibility rises. For countries at a relatively early stage of financial development and integration, fixed or relatively rigid regimes appear to offer some anti-inflation credibility gain without compromising growth objectives. As countries develop economically and institutionally, there appear to be considerable benefits to more flexible regimes. For developed countries that are not in a currency union, relatively flexible exchange rate regimes appear to offer higher growth without any cost in credibility.

Author : Gustavo Adler
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 148433230X
Total Pages : 37 pages
Book Rating : 4.06/5 ( download)

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Download or read book The Cost of Foreign Exchange Intervention written by Gustavo Adler and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-04-12 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The accumulation of large foreign asset positions by many central banks through sustained foreign exchange (FX) intervention has raised questions about its associated fiscal costs. This paper clarifies conceptual issues regarding how to measure these costs both from an ex-post and an ex-ante (relevant for decision making) perspective, and estimates both marginal and total costs for 73 countries over the period 2002-13. We find ex-ante marginal costs for the median emerging market economy (EME) in the inter-quartile range of 2-5.5 percent per year; while ex-ante total costs (of sustaining FX positions) in the range of 0.2-0.7 percent of GDP per year for light interveners and 0.3-1.2 percent of GDP per year for heavy interveners. These estimates indicate that fiscal costs of sustained FX intervention (via expanding central bank balance sheets) are not negligible.