External Imbalances And Financial Crises

Author : Alan Taylor
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484322266
Total Pages : 18 pages
Book Rating : 4.60/5 ( download)

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Download or read book External Imbalances and Financial Crises written by Alan Taylor and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-12-20 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Consider two views of the global financial crisis. One view looks across the border: it blames external imbalances, the unprecedented current account deficits and surpluses in recent years. Another view looks within the border: it faults domestic financial systems where risks originated in excessive credit booms. We can use the lens of macroeconomic and financial history to confront these dueling hypotheses with evidence. The credit boom explanation is the most plausible predictor of crises since the late nineteenth century; global imbalances have only a weak correlation with financial distress compared to indicators drawn from the financial system itself.

Author : Alan M. Taylor
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.95/5 ( download)

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Download or read book External Imbalances and Financial Crises written by Alan M. Taylor and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In broad perspective, there have been essentially two competing views of the global financial crisis, albeit there are some complementarities among them. One view looks across the border: it mainly blames external imbalances, the large-scale mix of unprecedented pattern current account deficits and surpluses which entailed massive and growing net and gross international financial flows in the last decade. The alternative view looks within the border: it finds more fault in the domestic arena of the afflicted countries, attributing the problems to financial systems where risks originated in excessive credit booms in local banks. This paper uses the lens of macroeconomic and financial history to confront these dueling hypotheses with evidence. Of the two, the credit boom explanation stands out as the most plausible predictor of financial crises since the dawn of modern finance capitalism in the late nineteenth century. Historically, we find that global imbalances are not as important as a factor in financial crises as is often perceived, and they have much less correlation with subsequent episodes of financial distress compared to direct indicators like credit drawn from the financial system itself -- National Bureau of Economic Research web site.

Author : Mr.Stijn Claessens
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475561008
Total Pages : 66 pages
Book Rating : 4.05/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications written by Mr.Stijn Claessens and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-30 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.

Author : Mr.Stijn Claessens
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475543409
Total Pages : 670 pages
Book Rating : 4.07/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Financial Crises written by Mr.Stijn Claessens and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-02-19 with total page 670 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The lingering effects of the economic crisis are still visible—this shows a clear need to improve our understanding of financial crises. This book surveys a wide range of crises, including banking, balance of payments, and sovereign debt crises. It begins with an overview of the various types of crises and introduces a comprehensive database of crises. Broad lessons on crisis prevention and management, as well as the short-term economic effects of crises, recessions, and recoveries, are discussed.

Author : Erlend Nier
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1455210722
Total Pages : 64 pages
Book Rating : 4.25/5 ( download)

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Download or read book What Caused the Global Financial Crisis written by Erlend Nier and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-11-01 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates empirically the drivers of financial imbalances ahead of the global financial crisis. Three factors may have contributed to the build-up of financial imbalances: (i) rising global imbalances (capital flows), (ii) monetary policy that might have been too loose, (iii) inadequate supervision and regulation. Panel data regressions are performed for OECD countries from 1999 to 2007, so as to shed light on the relative importance of these factors, as well as the extent to which these factors might have interacted in fuelling the build-up. We find that the build-up of financial imbalances was driven by capital inflows and an associated compression of the spread between long and short rates. The effect of capital inflows on the build-up is amplified where the supervisory and regulatory environment was relatively weak. We find that, by contrast, differences in monetary policy cannot account for differences across countries in the build-up of financial imbalances ahead of the crisis.

Author : Mr.Philip R. Lane
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 149836361X
Total Pages : 45 pages
Book Rating : 4.17/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Global Imbalances and External Adjustment after the Crisis written by Mr.Philip R. Lane and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-08-12 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper has two objectives. First, it reviews the recent dynamics of global imbalances (both “flow” and “stock” imbalances), with a special focus on the shifting position of Latin America in the global distribution. Second, it examines the cross-country variation in external adjustment over 2008-2012. In particular, it shows how pre-crisis external imbalances have strong predictive power for post-crisis macroeconomic outcomes, allowing for variation across different exchange rate regimes. We emphasize that the bulk of external adjustment has taken the form of “expenditure reduction”, with “expenditure switching” only playing a limited role.

Author : M. Ayhan Kose
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 1464815453
Total Pages : 403 pages
Book Rating : 4.54/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Global Waves of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-03-03 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.

Author : Steven Vincent Dunaway
Publisher : Council on Foreign Relations
ISBN 13 : 0876094280
Total Pages : 56 pages
Book Rating : 4.80/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Global Imbalances and the Financial Crisis written by Steven Vincent Dunaway and published by Council on Foreign Relations. This book was released on 2009 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Crafting stimulus packages and financial bailouts to address immediate problems has for many reasons been a priority for policymakers. In this Council Special Report, however, Steven Dunaway argues that policymakers must go beyond these steps and tackle one of the root causes of today's crisis: imbalances between savings and investment in major countries. The report analyzes the nature of these imbalances, which occur when some countries, such as the United States, run large current account (essentially trade) deficits while others, such as China, maintain large surpluses. Dunaway identifies three features of the international financial system that have allowed the imbalances to persist, features that involve both floating and managed exchange rates as well as the issuance of reserve assets. In particular, he notes that the United States' status as an issuer of such assets has enabled it to finance a current account deficit. The report then prescribes a variety of steps to address global imbalances. Beyond stimulus packages around the world, it urges measures to raise savings (principally government savings) in the United States, reform labor and product markets in Europe and Japan to increase competition and flexibility, and boost domestic consumption in China. Finally, the report advocates improving International Monetary Fund (IMF) surveillance of member states' economic policies by reducing the role of the Fund's executive board and depoliticizing the selection of its senior management.

Author : Carmen M. Reinhart
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 0691152640
Total Pages : 513 pages
Book Rating : 4.46/5 ( download)

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Download or read book This Time Is Different written by Carmen M. Reinhart and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2011-08-07 with total page 513 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An empirical investigation of financial crises during the last 800 years.

Author : Mr.Michael Kumhof
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1455210757
Total Pages : 39 pages
Book Rating : 4.56/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Inequality, Leverage and Crises written by Mr.Michael Kumhof and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-11-01 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper studies how high leverage and crises can arise as a result of changes in the income distribution. Empirically, the periods 1920-1929 and 1983-2008 both exhibited a large increase in the income share of the rich, a large increase in leverage for the remainder, and an eventual financial and real crisis. The paper presents a theoretical model where these features arise endogenously as a result of a shift in bargaining powers over incomes. A financial crisis can reduce leverage if it is very large and not accompanied by a real contraction. But restoration of the lower income group's bargaining power is more effective.