Exploring And Shaping International Futures

Author : Barry B. Hughes
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1317259866
Total Pages : 257 pages
Book Rating : 4.62/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Exploring and Shaping International Futures written by Barry B. Hughes and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2015-12-03 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "People who run cities like to play Simcity to find out how impossible their jobs are. Hughes gives everyone a chance to play a kind of Simplanet, with outcomes far more complex and uncertain. In the process, the book and the computer program provide a coherent path to understanding an anarchic world." --Ronald A. Francisco, University of Kansas "What will be the future of human demographic, economic, environmental, and political-social systems throughout the 21st century? Where do current changes appear to be taking us? What kind of future would we prefer? How much leverage do we have to bring about the future we prefer? Do YOU share these interests of the book? If yes, you should study the book and learn how to cope with the future with the International Futures approach (IFs) developed by the authors. This large-scale integrated global simulation modeling system is a user-friendly, professional tool for long-term policy analysis and an educational tool in universities. I had a pleasure to learn it personally by cooperating with Barry Hughes." --Pentti Malaska, Professor of MS, DrTech, futurist Honorary member of the Club of Rome What will be the long-term impact of AIDS in Africa or concentration of global oil production in the Middle East? Exploring and Shaping International Futures helps readers understand such global trends in demographic, economic, energy, food, environmental, and socio-political systems. It allows businesspeople, government officials, and others to think concretely about global futures in each of these areas. It is the only book on the market that allows readers to use a computer simulation to track global trends and to develop alternative scenarios around those trends. It is one of relatively few books that really brings computer technology into the classroom, boardroom, or policy planning commission. The International Futures (IFs) computer simulation, around which the book is built, is now widely used in policy analysis as well as education. It has been instrumental in projects undertaken by such groups as the European Commission, the U.S. National Intelligence Council, and the United Nations. After three decades of development and refinement, the computer model is now easy to access and use. Readers can access the website with the IFs computer model at www.ifs.du.edu

Author : Joy Higgs
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9789004505544
Total Pages : 446 pages
Book Rating : 4.47/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Shaping Wise Futures written by Joy Higgs and published by . This book was released on 2021-10-25 with total page 446 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "We are poised at a crossroads between a past that is outgrown and a future we must choose. This book examines the multiple ways that wisdom, grounded in life experience, science and theoretical knowledge, can contribute to positive and sustainable local and global futures. The authors in this book have brought their thinking to various aspects of this existential challenge using the lenses of Wisdom and Wise Practice, in an effort to explore ideas by which society might make choices in planning and acting for a wiser future. Wisdom practices have developed over millennia to assist people in approaching and managing life experiences and difficulties. While such practices were originally considered the purview of academic and religious scholars; at this important time in history, it must become everyone's responsibility to wisely look ahead if we are to achieve a sustainable future for society. The authors of this book comprise international future-oriented leaders, scholars, practitioners, community members and commentators with a commitment to social justice, human service and development. The book explores the place of wisdom and wise living practices alongside other ways of knowing and acting, for shaping positive futures for people and the world we inhabit. The chapters examine major challenges across political, physical and social life worlds, aiming to promote a quantum shift in discourse and decision making to address current and future challenges. The four parts of the book follow forward thinking ideas of wise professional practice: Facing future challenges, Exploring practice pathways, Examining options and Future possibilities"--

Author : Thomas G Weiss
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1000440621
Total Pages : 384 pages
Book Rating : 4.21/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Global Governance Futures written by Thomas G Weiss and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2021-09-30 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global Governance Futures addresses the crucial importance of thinking through the future of global governance arrangements. It considers the prospects for the governance of world order approaching the middle of the twenty-first century by exploring today’s most pressing and enduring health, social, ecological, economic, and political challenges. Each of the expert contributors considers the drivers of continuity and change within systems of governance and how actors, agents, mechanisms, and resources are and could be mobilized. The aim is not merely to understand state, intergovernmental, and non-state actors. It is also to draw attention to those underappreciated aspects of global governance that push understanding beyond strictures of traditional conceptualizations and offer better insights into the future of world order. The book’s three parts enable readers to appreciate better the sum of forces likely to shape world order in the near and not-so-near future: “Planetary” encompasses changes wrought by continuing human domination of the earth; war; current and future geopolitical, civilizational, and regional contestations; and life in and between urban and non-urban environments. “Divides” includes threats to human rights gains; the plight of migrants; those who have and those who do not; persistent racial, gender, religious, and sexualorientation-based discrimination; and those who govern and those who are governed. “Challenges” involves food and health insecurities; ongoing environmental degradation and species loss; the current and future politics of international assistance and data; and the wrong turns taken in the control of illicit drugs and crime. Designed to engage advanced undergraduate and graduate students in international relations, organization, law, and political economy as well as a general audience, this book invites readers to adopt both a backward- and forward-looking view of global governance. It will spark discussion and debate as to how dystopic futures might be avoided and change agents mobilized.

Author : Barry B Hughes
Publisher : Westview Press
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 234 pages
Book Rating : 4.88/5 ( download)

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Download or read book International Futures written by Barry B Hughes and published by Westview Press. This book was released on 1996-08 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fully updated and including a new and expanded Windows computer simulation, this unique text/disk combination provides a survey of alternative futures in international relations. By manipulating a wide range of variables in major countries and geographical regions students can generate a limitless number of future scenarios in the areas of demographics, food, energy, the environment, economics, and international politics. This new edition of International Futures coherently defines and develops key concepts in global issues and allows interactive development of alternative views of our global future. Complete with tables, flowcharts, feedback loops, computer notes, and research suggestions, the text and simulation allow students to transcend the usual level of speculation about the future by moving to an empirically grounded, values-based consideration of issues, strategies, and outcomes. The broader environmental context of international politics is a special focus of the new edition, just as it has emerged as one of the most important areas in international relations. IFs, a computer simulation to accompany International Futures, is now available in Windows format. It requires the following to operate: an 80386 processor or higher; an EGA, VGA, 8514, Hercules, or compatible display; at least four megabytes of RAM; a hard disk with at least four megabytes of free space; a 3 1/2-inch floppy drive, high density; a mouse; MS-DOS 3.1 or higher; Windows 3.1 or higher in standard or enhanced (not real) mode.

Author : Barry B. Hughes
Publisher : Academic Press
ISBN 13 : 0128134224
Total Pages : 330 pages
Book Rating : 4.21/5 ( download)

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Download or read book International Futures written by Barry B. Hughes and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2019-03-20 with total page 330 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system. Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years. Helps readers understand the IFs system, not at a detailed equation and technical level, but in terms of the important decisions made that dominate the structure and long-term behavior Presents information on the universe of long-term global forecasting systems, key decisions made, and the range of similarities and differences in the systems Covers the relationship between long-term forecasts in a variety of global issues and the forecasting systems and assumptions that underly them (essential information for forecast consumers)

Author : Nilanjan Raghunath
Publisher : McGill-Queen's Press - MQUP
ISBN 13 : 0228010063
Total Pages : 212 pages
Book Rating : 4.67/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Shaping the Futures of Work written by Nilanjan Raghunath and published by McGill-Queen's Press - MQUP. This book was released on 2021-09-15 with total page 212 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The widespread belief that tech-savvy, educated millennials are well positioned to handle the challenges of the fourth industrial revolution is unfounded. It does not fully grasp the reality of a flux society, where relevant technological skills and knowledge are continuously changing: no one is permanently tech-savvy. Millennials, like other generations, face the challenge of needing to continually reskill. This has compounded their struggle to begin their careers at a point when there is no longer any guarantee of lifetime employment or retirement at a set age. Shaping the Futures of Work is a timely sociological exploration of the impact of technological innovations on employment. Nilanjan Raghunath proposes that stakeholders such as states, enterprises, and citizens hold equally important roles in ensuring that people can adapt, innovate, and thrive within conditions of flux. A promising model focuses on collaboration and proactive governance. While good governance includes citizen engagement, proactive governance goes one step further, creating inclusive policies, roadmaps, and infrastructure for social and economic progress. This book reveals that lifelong learning and adaptability are imperative, even for well-educated professionals. Using Singapore and Singaporean millennials as a case study, Raghunath examines proactive governance and delivers research and analysis to elucidate career trajectories, pointing to a work ethic that aims to engage with technological futures. Looking at local and global sociological literature to confirm the need for proactive governance, Shaping the Futures of Work suggests that Singaporean millennials – and professionals around the world – need to better prepare themselves for flux, risk, failure, and reinvention for career mobility.

Author : RebekaRebekah Plueckhahn
Publisher : UCL Press
ISBN 13 : 1787351521
Total Pages : 188 pages
Book Rating : 4.23/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Shaping Urban Futures in Mongolia written by RebekaRebekah Plueckhahn and published by UCL Press. This book was released on 2020-03-25 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What can the generative processes of dynamic ownership reveal about how the urban is experienced, understood and made in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia? Shaping Urban Futures in Mongolia provides an ethnography of actions, strategies and techniques that form part of how residents precede and underwrite the owning of real estate property – including apartments and land – in a rapidly changing city. In doing so, it charts the types of visions of the future and perceptions of the urban form that are emerging within Ulaanbaatar following a period of investment, urban growth and subsequent economic fluctuation in Mongolia’s extractive economy since the late 2000s. Following the way that people discuss the ethics of urban change, emerging urban political subjectivities and the seeking of ‘quality’, Plueckhahn explores how conceptualisations of growth, multiplication, and the portioning of wholes influence residents’ interactions with Ulaanbaatar’s urban landscape. Shaping Urban Futures in Mongolia combines a study of changing postsocialist forms of ownership with a study of the lived experience of recent investment-fuelled urban growth within the Asia region. Examining ownership in Mongolia’s capital reveals how residents attempt to understand and make visible the hidden intricacies of this changing landscape.

Author : Ziauddin Sardar
Publisher : John Murray
ISBN 13 : 1444190067
Total Pages : 158 pages
Book Rating : 4.69/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Future: All That Matters written by Ziauddin Sardar and published by John Murray. This book was released on 2013-10-25 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Future: All That Matters, Ziauddin Sardar shows that thinking and speculating about the future has always been a part of human history, but exploring the futures in a systematic and scientific way is a recent phenomenon. What is known variously as 'futures studies', 'futurology' or 'foresight' only emerged as a discipline during the last few decades. The study of the future, however, is not only about 'predicting' or 'forecasting' the future, which is always a perilous exercise. It is also about appreciating the potentials and possibilities, as well as risks and threats, lurking over the horizon. It can enable us both to avoid the dangers as well as shape a viable and desirable future. This book explores the exciting field of futures studies, and shows how knowledge of the future is acquired and put into practice. We examine various methods for studying the future, with the emphasis not so much on predicting specific events but on delineating alternative paths to the future. We look at some celebrated readings of the future as well as case studies where exploration of the future has been used to shape policy and planning in businesses and communities, international organisations and regional institutions, and interest and lobby groups. Finally, the book suggests why and how in an increasingly complex, uncertain and diverse world, the study of the future can help people recover their agency and help them to create the world in which they wish to live. This accessible and readable book will appeal both to students and general readers, giving a fascinating introduction to thinking about the future - and what matters most about it.

Author : National Intelligence Council
Publisher : Cosimo Reports
ISBN 13 : 9781646794973
Total Pages : 158 pages
Book Rating : 4.74/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Global Trends 2040 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2021-03 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

Author : Evan Hillebrand
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262328739
Total Pages : 245 pages
Book Rating : 4.39/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Energy, Economic Growth, and Geopolitical Futures written by Evan Hillebrand and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-04-17 with total page 245 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Eight varied scenarios, integrating a quantitative model and qualitative analysis, that examine the interplay of three key drivers over the next four decades. This book presents eight varied scenarios of possible global futures, emphasizing the interconnectedness of three drivers of change: energy prices, economic growth, and geopolitics. Other published global future scenarios focus on only one of these factors, viewing, for example, economic growth as unaffected by energy prices or energy prices in isolation from geopolitical conditions. In this book, Evan Hillebrand and Stacy Closson offer a new approach to scenario construction that acknowledges the codependence of these key drivers and integrates qualitative analysis with a quantitative model. The eight scenarios represent possible combinations of high or low energy prices, strong or weak economic growth, and global harmony or disharmony across three time periods: the 2010s, 2020 to 2040, and 2040 to 2050. The “Regional Mercantilism” scenario, for example, envisions high energy prices, weak economic growth, and global disharmony. To impose numerical consistency across scenarios, Hillebrand and Closson employ the International Futures (IFs) model developed by Barry Hughes. (Interested readers can download this interactive model to alter or build scenarios themselves.) Assessing the probability of each scenario, they conclude that increased U.S. energy supply and the sustainability of the Chinese growth miracle are the most significant drivers over the next forty years.