Exchange Rate Management And Crisis Susceptibility

Author : Mr.Atish R. Ghosh
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484383974
Total Pages : 46 pages
Book Rating : 4.71/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Exchange Rate Management and Crisis Susceptibility written by Mr.Atish R. Ghosh and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-01-24 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper revisits the bipolar prescription for exchange rate regime choice and asks two questions: are the poles of hard pegs and pure floats still safer than the middle? And where to draw the line between safe floats and risky intermediate regimes? Our findings, based on a sample of 50 EMEs over 1980-2011, show that macroeconomic and financial vulnerabilities are significantly greater under less flexible intermediate regimes—including hard pegs—as compared to floats. While not especially susceptible to banking or currency crises, hard pegs are significantly more prone to growth collapses, suggesting that the security of the hard end of the prescription is largely illusory. Intermediate regimes as a class are the most susceptible to crises, but “managed floats”—a subclass within such regimes—behave much more like pure floats, with significantly lower risks and fewer crises. “Managed floating,” however, is a nebulous concept; a characterization of more crisis prone regimes suggests no simple dividing line between safe floats and risky intermediate regimes.

Author : George Allayannis
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 50 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Download or read book Exchange Rate Risk Management written by George Allayannis and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2001 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a large sample of East Asian nonfinancial corporations, firms using foreign currency derivatives had distinctive characteristics, such as larger size and foreign debt exposures. Unlike in studies of U.S. firms, there was only weak evidence that liquidity-constrained firms with greater growth opportunities hedged more. Firms appeared to use foreign earnings as a substitute for hedging with derivatives, and to engage in "selective" hedging. There was no evidence that East Asian firms eliminated their foreign exchange exposure by using derivatives. And firms using derivatives before the crisis performed just as poorly as nonhedgers during the crisis.

Author : Mr.Robert P. Flood
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451855168
Total Pages : 52 pages
Book Rating : 4.66/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Perspectiveson the Recent Currency Crisis Literature written by Mr.Robert P. Flood and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-09-01 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the 1990s, currency crises in Europe, Mexico, and Asia have drawn worldwide attention to speculative attacks on government-controlled exchange rates and have prompted researchers to undertake new theoretical and empirical analysis of these events. This paper provides some perspective on this work and relates it to earlier research. It derives the optimal commitment to a fixed exchange rate and proposes a common framework for analyzing currency crises. This framework stresses the important role of speculators and recognizes that the government’s commitment to a fixed exchange rate is constrained by other policy goals. The final section finds that some crises may be particularly difficult to predict using currently popular methods.

Author : Romain Lafarguette
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513569406
Total Pages : 33 pages
Book Rating : 4.06/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Foreign Exchange Intervention Rules for Central Banks: A Risk-based Framework written by Romain Lafarguette and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-02-12 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a rule for foreign exchange interventions (FXI), designed to preserve financial stability in floating exchange rate arrangements. The FXI rule addresses a market failure: the absence of hedging solution for tail exchange rate risk in the market (i.e. high volatility). Market impairment or overshoot of exchange rate between two equilibria could generate high volatility and threaten financial stability due to unhedged exposure to exchange rate risk in the economy. The rule uses the concept of Value at Risk (VaR) to define FXI triggers. While it provides to the market a hedge against tail risk, the rule allows the exchange rate to smoothly adjust to new equilibria. In addition, the rule is budget neutral over the medium term, encourages a prudent risk management in the market, and is more resilient to speculative attacks than other rules, such as fixed-volatility rules. The empirical methodology is backtested on Banco Mexico’s FXIs data between 2008 and 2016.

Author : Mr.Thomas Dowling
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1455212520
Total Pages : 46 pages
Book Rating : 4.21/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Interpreting Currency Movements During the Crisis written by Mr.Thomas Dowling and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-01-01 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using an adaptation of the Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP) condition, this paper analyzes the drivers behind the large, symmetric exchange rate swings observed during the financial crisis of 2008-2010. Employing a Nelson-Siegel model, we estimate yield curves and decompose the exchange rate movements into changes we attribute to monetary policy and a residual. We find that the depreciation phase of the currencies in our sample was largely dominated by safe-haven effects rather than carry trade activity or other return considerations. For some countries, however, the appreciation that began at the end of 2008 seems largely to reflect downward movement in the cumulative revisions to nominal forward differentials, suggesting carry trade.

Author : Sebastian Edwards
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226185052
Total Pages : 783 pages
Book Rating : 4.57/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets written by Sebastian Edwards and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2009-02-15 with total page 783 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economists and policymakers are still trying to understand the lessons recent financial crises in Asia and other emerging market countries hold for the future of the global financial system. In this timely and important volume, distinguished academics, officials in multilateral organizations, and public and private sector economists explore the causes of and effective policy responses to international currency crises. Topics covered include exchange rate regimes, contagion (transmission of currency crises across countries), the current account of the balance of payments, the role of private sector investors and of speculators, the reaction of the official sector (including the multilaterals), capital controls, bank supervision and weaknesses, and the roles of cronyism, corruption, and large players (including hedge funds). Ably balancing detailed case studies, cross-country comparisons, and theoretical concerns, this book will make a major contribution to ongoing efforts to understand and prevent international currency crises.

Author : Mrs.Gilda Fernandez
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1589064763
Total Pages : 29 pages
Book Rating : 4.68/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Moving to a Flexible Exchange Rate written by Mrs.Gilda Fernandez and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-01-09 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A growing number of countries are adopting flexible exchange rate regimes because flexibility offers more protection against external shocks and greater monetary independence. Other countries have made the transition under disorderly conditions, with the sharp depreciation of their currency during a crisis. Regardless of the reason for adopting a flexible exchange rate, a successful transition depends on the effective management of a number of institutional and operational issues. The authors of this Economic Issue describe the necessary ingredients for moving to a flexible regime, as well as the optimal pace and sequencing under different conditions.

Author : Mr.Reinout De Bock
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1557755302
Total Pages : 34 pages
Book Rating : 4.08/5 ( download)

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Download or read book The Behavior of Currencies during Risk-off Episodes written by Mr.Reinout De Bock and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-11 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Episodes of increased global risk aversion, also known as risk-off episodes, have become more frequent and severe since 2007. During these episodes, currency markets exhibit recurrent patterns, as the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and U.S. dollar appreciate against other G-10 and emerging market currencies. The pattern of these moves can be explained by a combination of fundamental factors, such as the nominal interest rate, the international investment position and measures of exchange rate misalignment, and market-liquidity factors, such as bid-offer spreads and restrictions on international capital flows. We also find that currency performance in a risk-off episode has become more related to a currency?s yield and relationship to broader risks in recent years.

Author : Mr.Reinout De Bock
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1616353163
Total Pages : 58 pages
Book Rating : 4.62/5 ( download)

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Download or read book The Behavior of Currencies during Risk-off Episodes written by Mr.Reinout De Bock and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-11 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Episodes of increased global risk aversion, also known as risk-off episodes, have become more frequent and severe since 2007. During these episodes, currency markets exhibit recurrent patterns, as the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and U.S. dollar appreciate against other G-10 and emerging market currencies. The pattern of these moves can be explained by a combination of fundamental factors, such as the nominal interest rate, the international investment position and measures of exchange rate misalignment, and market-liquidity factors, such as bid-offer spreads and restrictions on international capital flows. We also find that currency performance in a risk-off episode has become more related to a currency?s yield and relationship to broader risks in recent years.

Author : Mr.Michael G. Papaioannou
Publisher : INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
ISBN 13 : 9781451865158
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.55/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Exchange Rate Risk Measurement and Management written by Mr.Michael G. Papaioannou and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2006-11-01 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Measuring and managing exchange rate risk exposure is important for reducing a firm's vulnerabilities from major exchange rate movements, which could adversely affect profit margins and the value of assets. This paper reviews the traditional types of exchange rate risk faced by firms, namely transaction, translation and economic risks, presents the VaR approach as the currently predominant method of measuring a firm's exchange rate risk exposure, and examines the main advantages and disadvantages of various exchange rate risk management strategies, including tactical versus strategical and passive versus active hedging. In addition, it outlines a set of widely accepted best practices in managing currency risk and presents some of the main hedging instruments in the OTC and exchange-traded markets. The paper also provides some data on the use of financial derivatives instruments, and hedging practices by U.S. firms.