Evidence And Inference For The Intelligence Analyst

Author : David A. Schum
Publisher : Evidence & Inference for the I
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 512 pages
Book Rating : 4.84/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Evidence and Inference for the Intelligence Analyst written by David A. Schum and published by Evidence & Inference for the I. This book was released on 1987 with total page 512 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book, divided into two volumes, is intended to bring intelligence analysts and others abreast of current scholarship, from many disciplines, on the process of drawing conclusions from a mass of incomplete, inconclusive, and unreliable evidence. Volume I contains seventeen chapters on various evidential and inferential issues; though they contain some symbols and diagrams, the chapters in this volume contain almost no mathematics.

Author : David A. Schum
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 486 pages
Book Rating : 4.22/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Evidence and Inference for the Intelligence Analyst written by David A. Schum and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 486 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Author : Gheorghe Tecuci
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1316654192
Total Pages : 286 pages
Book Rating : 4.94/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Intelligence Analysis as Discovery of Evidence, Hypotheses, and Arguments written by Gheorghe Tecuci and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2016-08-30 with total page 286 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This unique book on intelligence analysis covers several vital but often overlooked topics. It teaches the evidential and inferential issues involved in 'connecting the dots' to draw defensible and persuasive conclusions from masses of evidence: from observations we make, or questions we ask, we generate alternative hypotheses as explanations or answers; we make use of our hypotheses to generate new lines of inquiry and discover new evidence; and we test the hypotheses with the discovered evidence. To facilitate understanding of these issues and enable the performance of complex analyses, the book introduces an intelligent analytical tool, called Disciple-CD. Readers will practice with Disciple-CD and learn how to formulate hypotheses; develop arguments that reduce complex hypotheses to simpler ones; collect evidence to evaluate the simplest hypotheses; and assess the relevance and the believability of evidence, which combine in complex ways to determine its inferential force and the probabilities of the hypotheses.

Author : David T. Moore
Publisher : Lulu.com
ISBN 13 : 1257781804
Total Pages : 160 pages
Book Rating : 4.05/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis written by David T. Moore and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2011-03-21 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This National Defense Intelligence College publication defines critical thinking in the context of intelligence analysis, explains how it influences the entire intelligence process, explores how it toughens the art of intelligence analysis, suggests how it may be taught, and deduces how analysts can be persuaded to adopt this habit. "David Moore has added his powerful voice to those calling for America's intelligence analysts to be more self-conscious about their methods and more venturesome in applying more formal methods." - Gregory F. Treverton, Rand Corp. "...a valuable initiative on behalf of the Intelligence Community" - Francis J. Hughes, National Defense Intelligence College.

Author : Whitesmith Martha Whitesmith
Publisher : Edinburgh University Press
ISBN 13 : 1474466370
Total Pages : 307 pages
Book Rating : 4.70/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis written by Whitesmith Martha Whitesmith and published by Edinburgh University Press. This book was released on 2020-09-21 with total page 307 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tests whether the analysis of competing hypotheses reduces cognitive bias, and proposes a more effective approachReveals that a key element of current training provided to the UK and US intelligence communities (and likely all 5-EYES and several European agencies) does not have a proven ability to mitigate cognitive biasesDemonstrates that judging the credibility of information from human sources means that intelligence analysis faces greater complexity and cognitive strain than non-intelligence analysisExplains the underlying causes cognitive biases, based on meta-analyses of existing researchShows that identifying the ideal conditions for intelligence analysis is a more effective way of reducing the risk of cognitive bias than the use of ACHRecent high-profile intelligence failures - from 9/11 to the 2003 Iraq war - prove that cognitive bias in intelligence analysis can have catastrophic consequences. This book critiques the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the use of a method for intelligence analysis developed by the CIA in the 1990s, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH). The author puts ACH to the test in an experimental setting against two key cognitive biases with unique empirical research facilitated by UK's Professional Heads of Intelligence Analysis unit at the Cabinet Office, and finds that the theoretical basis of the ACH method is significantly flawed. Combining the insight of a practitioner with over 11 years of experience in intelligence with both philosophical theory and experimental research, the author proposes an alternative approach to mitigating cognitive bias that focuses on creating the optimum environment for analysis, challenging current leading theories.

Author : Edward Waltz
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN 13 : 144223587X
Total Pages : 309 pages
Book Rating : 4.78/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Quantitative Intelligence Analysis written by Edward Waltz and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2014-10-16 with total page 309 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Quantitative Intelligence Analysis describes the model-based method of intelligence analysis that represents the analyst’s mental models of a subject, as well as the analyst’s reasoning process exposing what the analyst believes about the subject, and how they arrived at those beliefs and converged on analytic judgments. It includes: Specific methods of explicitly representing the analyst’s mental models as computational models; dynamic simulations and interactive analytic games; the structure of an analyst’s mental model and the theoretical basis for capturing and representing the tacit knowledge of these models explicitly as computational models detailed description of the use of these models in rigorous, structured analysis of difficult targets; model illustrations and simulation descriptions; the role of models in support of collection and operations; case studies that illustrate a wide range of intelligence problems; And a recommended curriculum for technical analysts.

Author : Lisa Krizan
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 96 pages
Book Rating : 4.41/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Intelligence Essentials for Everyone written by Lisa Krizan and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 96 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Author : Robert Chapman
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1317576225
Total Pages : 413 pages
Book Rating : 4.28/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Material Evidence written by Robert Chapman and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2014-12-05 with total page 413 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How do archaeologists make effective use of physical traces and material culture as repositories of evidence? Material Evidence takes a resolutely case-based approach to this question, exploring instances of exemplary practice, key challenges, instructive failures, and innovative developments in the use of archaeological data as evidence. The goal is to bring to the surface the wisdom of practice, teasing out norms of archaeological reasoning from evidence. Archaeologists make compelling use of an enormously diverse range of material evidence, from garbage dumps to monuments, from finely crafted artifacts rich with cultural significance to the detritus of everyday life and the inadvertent transformation of landscapes over the long term. Each contributor to Material Evidence identifies a particular type of evidence with which they grapple and considers, with reference to concrete examples, how archaeologists construct evidential claims, critically assess them, and bring them to bear on pivotal questions about the cultural past. Historians, cultural anthropologists, philosophers, and science studies scholars are increasingly interested in working with material things as objects of inquiry and as evidence – and they acknowledge on all sides just how challenging this is. One of the central messages of the book is that close analysis of archaeological best practice can yield constructive guidelines for practice that have much to offer archaeologists and those in related fields.

Author : David T. Moore
Publisher : DIANE Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1437934927
Total Pages : 158 pages
Book Rating : 4.22/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis written by David T. Moore and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2010-10 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Contents: (1) How Do People Reason?; (2) What is Critical Thinking?; (3) What Can Be Learned from the Past?: Thinking Critically about Cuba: Deploying the Missiles; Assessing the Implications; Between Dogmatism and Refutation; Lacking: Disconfirmation; The Roles of Critical Thinking in the Cuban Crisis; Winners and Losers: The Crisis in Context; Ten Years Later, They Meet Again; Judgment; (4) How Can Intelligence Analysts Employ Critical Thinking?; (5) How Can Intelligence Analysts be Taught to Think Critically?; (6) How Does Critical Thinking Transform?; (7) What Other Points of View Exist?; (8) What Does the Future Hold?; (9) NSA¿s Critical Thinking and Structured Analysis Class Syllabus. Charts and tables.

Author : Richards J Heuer
Publisher : Pickle Partners Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1839743050
Total Pages : 344 pages
Book Rating : 4.54/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Psychology of Intelligence Analysis written by Richards J Heuer and published by Pickle Partners Publishing. This book was released on 2020-03-05 with total page 344 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this seminal work, published by the C.I.A. itself, produced by Intelligence veteran Richards Heuer discusses three pivotal points. First, human minds are ill-equipped ("poorly wired") to cope effectively with both inherent and induced uncertainty. Second, increased knowledge of our inherent biases tends to be of little assistance to the analyst. And lastly, tools and techniques that apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex problems.