Demographics And The Natural Rate Of Interest In Japan

Author : Mr.Fei Han
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484396235
Total Pages : 31 pages
Book Rating : 4.30/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Demographics and the Natural Rate of Interest in Japan written by Mr.Fei Han and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-02-15 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Japan’s aging and shrinking population could lower the natural rate of interest and, together with low inflation expectations, challenge the Bank of Japan’s efforts to reflate the economy. This paper uses a semi-structural model to estimate the impact of demographics on the natural rate in Japan. We find that demographic change has a significantly negative impact on the natural rate by lowering trend potential growth. We also find that the negative impact has been increasing over time amid stronger demographic headwinds. These findings highlight the importance of boosting potential growth to offset the negative demographic impact and lift the natural rate in Japan.

Author : Mr.Fei Han
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781498301206
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.07/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Demographics and the Natural Rate of Interest in Japan written by Mr.Fei Han and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Author : Mr.Niklas J Westelius
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475569599
Total Pages : 18 pages
Book Rating : 4.99/5 ( download)

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Download or read book The Impact of Demographics on Productivity and Inflation in Japan written by Mr.Niklas J Westelius and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-01-18 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is Japan’s aging and, more recently, declining population hampering growth and reflation efforts? Exploiting demographic and economic variation in prefectural data between 1990 and 2007, we find that aging of the working age population has had a significant negative impact on total factor productivity. Moreover, prefectures that aged at a faster pace experienced lower overall inflation, while prefectures with higher population growth experienced higher inflation. The results give strong support to the notion that demographic headwinds can have a non-trivial impact on total factor productivity and deflationary pressures.

Author : Charles Goodhart
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030426572
Total Pages : 260 pages
Book Rating : 4.76/5 ( download)

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Download or read book The Great Demographic Reversal written by Charles Goodhart and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-08-08 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This original and panoramic book proposes that the underlying forces of demography and globalisation will shortly reverse three multi-decade global trends – it will raise inflation and interest rates, but lead to a pullback in inequality. “Whatever the future holds”, the authors argue, “it will be nothing like the past”. Deflationary headwinds over the last three decades have been primarily due to an enormous surge in the world’s available labour supply, owing to very favourable demographic trends and the entry of China and Eastern Europe into the world’s trading system. This book demonstrates how these demographic trends are on the point of reversing sharply, coinciding with a retreat from globalisation. The result? Ageing can be expected to raise inflation and interest rates, bringing a slew of problems for an over-indebted world economy, but is also anticipated to increase the share of labour, so that inequality falls. Covering many social and political factors, as well as those that are more purely macroeconomic, the authors address topics including ageing, dementia, inequality, populism, retirement and debt finance, among others. This book will be of interest and understandable to anyone with an interest on where the world’s economy may be going.

Author : Mr.Serkan Arslanalp
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484370309
Total Pages : 23 pages
Book Rating : 4.08/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Demographics and Interest Rates in Asia written by Mr.Serkan Arslanalp and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-27 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Demographic developments have been regarded as one important cause of the long-term movement in global interest rates. This paper provides empirical evidence of the relationship between demographics and interest rates over a wide sample of advanced and emerging market economies. It also finds that capital account openness limits the direct sensitivity of a country’s interest rates to its own demographics. The results suggest that future demographic developments will continue to apply downward pressure on the interest rates in Asia which foresees a rapid aging.

Author : International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484386728
Total Pages : 93 pages
Book Rating : 4.29/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Japan written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-11-27 with total page 93 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The rapid aging and shrinking of Japan’s population will dominate economic policy making in coming decades—impelling a fresh look at the objectives and tools of Abenomics. Six years of Abenomics have yielded some important results, but achieving sustained high growth and durable reflation, while also tackling debt sustainability and a shifting global economic landscape, will require strengthened policies.

Author : Josef Platzer
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 88 pages
Book Rating : 4.19/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Secular Drivers of the Natural Rate of Interest in the United States: A Quantitative Evaluation written by Josef Platzer and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-02-11 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop a heterogeneous agent, overlapping generations model with nonhomothetic preferences that nests several explanations for the decline in the natural rate of interest (r∗) suggested in the literature: demographic change, a slowdown in productivity growth, a rise in income inequality, and public policy. The model can account for a 2.2 percentage point (pp) decline in r∗ between 1975 and 2015, which is within the range of empirical estimates. Rising income inequality is an important driver (-0.70 pp), and together with demographic change (-0.71 pp) and the slowdown in productivity growth (-1.0 pp) explains most of the decline. Growing public debt is the major counteracting force (+0.31 pp). Permanent income inequality is of greater importance than inequality due to uninsurable income risk, and matching the degree of nonhomotheticity in consumption and savings behavior to empirical estimates is essential for this result. We predict that r∗ will reach a low of 0.38% by 2030, after which a slow reversal will begin. The natural rate will stabilize at 1% in the long run, a low level when compared with the postwar path of r∗ implied by the model. This remains true even if we take into account soaring public debt levels due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Policy can have considerable impact on the level of r∗ through the tax and transfer system.

Author : International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513528831
Total Pages : 68 pages
Book Rating : 4.30/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Finance & Development, March 2020 written by International Monetary Fund. Communications Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-03-02 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This issue of Finance & Development discusses link between demographics and economic well-being. In the coming decades, demographics is expected to be more favorable to economic well-being in the less developed regions than in the more developed regions. The age structure of a population reflects mainly its fertility and mortality history. In high-mortality populations, improved survival tends to occur disproportionately among children. The “demographic dividend” refers to the process through which a changing age structure can spur economic growth. It depends, of course, on several complex factors, including the nature and pace of demographic change, the operation of labor and capital markets, macroeconomic management and trade policies, governance, and human capital accumulation. Population aging is the dominant demographic trend of the twenty-first century—a reflection of increasing longevity, declining fertility, and the progression of large cohorts to older ages. Barring a change in current trends, the industrial world’s working-age population will decline over the next generation, and China’s working-age population will decline as well. At the same time, trends toward increased labor force participation of women have played out with, for example, more women than men now working in the United States.

Author : David Bloom
Publisher : Rand Corporation
ISBN 13 : 0833033735
Total Pages : 127 pages
Book Rating : 4.34/5 ( download)

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Download or read book The Demographic Dividend written by David Bloom and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2003-02-13 with total page 127 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is long-standing debate on how population growth affects national economies. A new report from Population Matters examines the history of this debate and synthesizes current research on the topic. The authors, led by Harvard economist David Bloom, conclude that population age structure, more than size or growth per se, affects economic development, and that reducing high fertility can create opportunities for economic growth if the right kinds of educational, health, and labor-market policies are in place. The report also examines specific regions of the world and how their differing policy environments have affected the relationship between population change and economic development.

Author : International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498318924
Total Pages : 76 pages
Book Rating : 4.21/5 ( download)

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Download or read book A Strategy for IMF Engagement on Social Spending written by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-06-14 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper uses case studies to explore the nature and extent of past IMF engagement on social spending issues and to draw lessons for future engagement.