Decision Making And Imperfection

Author : Tatiana V Guy
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3642364063
Total Pages : 197 pages
Book Rating : 4.68/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Decision Making and Imperfection written by Tatiana V Guy and published by Springer. This book was released on 2013-02-01 with total page 197 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision making (DM) is ubiquitous in both natural and artificial systems. The decisions made often differ from those recommended by the axiomatically well-grounded normative Bayesian decision theory, in a large part due to limited cognitive and computational resources of decision makers (either artificial units or humans). This state of a airs is often described by saying that decision makers are imperfect and exhibit bounded rationality. The neglected influence of emotional state and personality traits is an additional reason why normative theory fails to model human DM process. The book is a joint effort of the top researchers from different disciplines to identify sources of imperfection and ways how to decrease discrepancies between the prescriptive theory and real-life DM. The contributions consider: · how a crowd of imperfect decision makers outperforms experts' decisions; · how to decrease decision makers' imperfection by reducing knowledge available; · how to decrease imperfection via automated elicitation of DM preferences; · a human's limited willingness to master the available decision-support tools as an additional source of imperfection; · how the decision maker's emotional state influences the rationality; a DM support of edutainment robot based on its system of values and respecting emotions. The book will appeal to anyone interested in the challenging topic of DM theory and its applications.

Author : Tatiana V. Guy
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319151444
Total Pages : 184 pages
Book Rating : 4.41/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Decision Making: Uncertainty, Imperfection, Deliberation and Scalability written by Tatiana V. Guy and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-02-09 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume focuses on uncovering the fundamental forces underlying dynamic decision making among multiple interacting, imperfect and selfish decision makers. The chapters are written by leading experts from different disciplines, all considering the many sources of imperfection in decision making, and always with an eye to decreasing the myriad discrepancies between theory and real world human decision making. Topics addressed include uncertainty, deliberation cost and the complexity arising from the inherent large computational scale of decision making in these systems. In particular, analyses and experiments are presented which concern: • task allocation to maximize “the wisdom of the crowd”; • design of a society of “edutainment” robots who account for one anothers’ emotional states; • recognizing and counteracting seemingly non-rational human decision making; • coping with extreme scale when learning causality in networks; • efficiently incorporating expert knowledge in personalized medicine; • the effects of personality on risky decision making. The volume is a valuable source for researchers, graduate students and practitioners in machine learning, stochastic control, robotics, and economics, among other fields.

Author : Tatiana Valentine Guy
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642246478
Total Pages : 207 pages
Book Rating : 4.70/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Decision Making with Imperfect Decision Makers written by Tatiana Valentine Guy and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-11-13 with total page 207 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Prescriptive Bayesian decision making has reached a high level of maturity and is well-supported algorithmically. However, experimental data shows that real decision makers choose such Bayes-optimal decisions surprisingly infrequently, often making decisions that are badly sub-optimal. So prevalent is such imperfect decision-making that it should be accepted as an inherent feature of real decision makers living within interacting societies. To date such societies have been investigated from an economic and gametheoretic perspective, and even to a degree from a physics perspective. However, little research has been done from the perspective of computer science and associated disciplines like machine learning, information theory and neuroscience. This book is a major contribution to such research. Some of the particular topics addressed include: How should we formalise rational decision making of a single imperfect decision maker? Does the answer change for a system of imperfect decision makers? Can we extend existing prescriptive theories for perfect decision makers to make them useful for imperfect ones? How can we exploit the relation of these problems to the control under varying and uncertain resources constraints as well as to the problem of the computational decision making? What can we learn from natural, engineered, and social systems to help us address these issues?

Author : Aliev Rafig Aziz
Publisher : World Scientific
ISBN 13 : 9814611050
Total Pages : 468 pages
Book Rating : 4.53/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Decision Theory With Imperfect Information written by Aliev Rafig Aziz and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2014-08-08 with total page 468 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Every day decision making in complex human-centric systems are characterized by imperfect decision-relevant information. The principal problems with the existing decision theories are that they do not have capability to deal with situations in which probabilities and events are imprecise. In this book, we describe a new theory of decision making with imperfect information. The aim is to shift the foundation of decision analysis and economic behavior from the realm bivalent logic to the realm fuzzy logic and Z-restriction, from external modeling of behavioral decisions to the framework of combined states.This book will be helpful for professionals, academics, managers and graduate students in fuzzy logic, decision sciences, artificial intelligence, mathematical economics, and computational economics.

Author : Elliot D. Cohen
Publisher : New Harbinger Publications
ISBN 13 : 1684033004
Total Pages : 200 pages
Book Rating : 4.03/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Making Peace with Imperfection written by Elliot D. Cohen and published by New Harbinger Publications. This book was released on 2019-06-01 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Demanding perfection in everything you do can create a life of stress, worry, and overload. With this essential self-help guide, you’ll learn to escape the perfectionism trap and cultivate unconditional self-acceptance in an imperfect world. Are you a perfectionist? Do you wear this title like a badge of honor, even though it creates needless stress in your life? Ironically, the stress you create by demanding perfection from yourself and others can actually make it harder to achieve your goals in the long run. It can also alienate you from friends, family, and coworkers. So, how can you escape the perfectionism trap and start living a life of self-compassion? In this informative and practical resource, author Elliot Cohen reveals the eleven types of perfectionism, and gives you the tools and skills you need to move past this distressing mind set before it leads to chronic stress, anxiety, anger, or even depression. Using strategies grounded in evidence-based rational emotive behavior therapy (REBT), you’ll discover how your perfectionism is actually a result of irrational beliefs, learn to challenge these beliefs, and replace negative thoughts with compassionate ones. Being a perfectionist can affect virtually every decision you make, and every action you take—leading to a life of perpetual stress. This book can help you put a stop to the absolutist thinking behind your perfectionism and take steps toward a calmer, more balanced way of being.

Author : Mireille Batton-Hubert
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1786302985
Total Pages : 228 pages
Book Rating : 4.84/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Geographical Data Imperfection 2 written by Mireille Batton-Hubert and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2024-03-26 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Geographical data often contains imperfections associated with insufficient precision, errors or incompleteness. If these imperfections are not identified, taken into account and controlled when using the data, the potential for errors may arise, leading to significant consequences with unforeseeable effects, particularly in a decisionmaking context. It is then necessary to characterize and model this imperfection, and take it into account throughout the process. In the previous volume, we introduced different approaches for defining, representing and processing imperfections in geographic data. Volume 2 will now present a number of concrete applications in a variety of fields, demonstrating the practical application of the methodology to use cases such as agriculture, natural disaster management, mountain hazards, land management and assistance for the visually impaired.

Author : Krzysztof Dyczkowski
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319670050
Total Pages : 123 pages
Book Rating : 4.58/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Intelligent Medical Decision Support System Based on Imperfect Information written by Krzysztof Dyczkowski and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-10-01 with total page 123 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book discusses computer-supported medical diagnosis with a particular focus on ovarian tumor diagnosis – since ovarian cancer is difficult to diagnose and has high mortality rates, especially in Central and Eastern Europe. It presents the theoretical foundations (both medical and mathematical) of the intelligent OvaExpert system, which supports decision-making in tumor diagnosis. OvaExpert was created primarily to help gynecologists predict the malignancy of ovarian tumors by applying the existing diagnostic models and using modern methods of computational intelligence that accommodate imprecise and imperfect medical data, both of which are common features of everyday medical practice. The book presents novel methods based on interval-valued fuzzy sets and the theory of their cardinalities.

Author : Éloi Bossé
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 303003643X
Total Pages : 620 pages
Book Rating : 4.30/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Information Quality in Information Fusion and Decision Making written by Éloi Bossé and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-02 with total page 620 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a contemporary view of the role of information quality in information fusion and decision making, and provides a formal foundation and the implementation strategies required for dealing with insufficient information quality in building fusion systems for decision making. Information fusion is the process of gathering, processing, and combining large amounts of information from multiple and diverse sources, including physical sensors to human intelligence reports and social media. That data and information may be unreliable, of low fidelity, insufficient resolution, contradictory, fake and/or redundant. Sources may provide unverified reports obtained from other sources resulting in correlations and biases. The success of the fusion processing depends on how well knowledge produced by the processing chain represents reality, which in turn depends on how adequate data are, how good and adequate are the models used, and how accurate, appropriate or applicable prior and contextual knowledge is. By offering contributions by leading experts, this book provides an unparalleled understanding of the problem of information quality in information fusion and decision-making for researchers and professionals in the field.

Author : Azeddine Elhassouny
Publisher : Infinite Study
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 14 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Download or read book Neutrosophic modifications of Simplified TOPSIS for Imperfect Information (nS-TOPSIS) written by Azeddine Elhassouny and published by Infinite Study. This book was released on with total page 14 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, first, the authors simplify the popular TOPSIS method to a lite TOPSIS (S-TOPSIS), that gives the same result as standard version. Second, mapping STOPSIS to Neutrosophics Environment, investigating SVNS, called nS-TOPSIS, to deal with imperfect information in the real decision-making problems. Numerical examples show the contributions of proposed S-TOPSIS method to get the same results with standard TOPSIS with simple way of calculus, and how Neutrosophic environment manage the uncertain information using SVN.

Author : Daniel Kahneman
Publisher : Little, Brown
ISBN 13 : 031645138X
Total Pages : 429 pages
Book Rating : 4.83/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Noise written by Daniel Kahneman and published by Little, Brown. This book was released on 2021-05-18 with total page 429 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the Nobel Prize-winning author of Thinking, Fast and Slow and the coauthor of Nudge, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones—"a tour de force” (New York Times). Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients—or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants—or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical. In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions. Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment—and what we can do about it.