Cognitive Bias In Intelligence Analysis

Author : Martha Whitesmith
Publisher : Edinburgh University Press
ISBN 13 : 1474466362
Total Pages : 304 pages
Book Rating : 4.63/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis written by Martha Whitesmith and published by Edinburgh University Press. This book was released on 2020-09-21 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book critiques the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the use of a method for intelligence analysis developed by the CIA in the 1990s, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH).

Author : Richards J Heuer
Publisher : Pickle Partners Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1839743050
Total Pages : 344 pages
Book Rating : 4.54/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Psychology of Intelligence Analysis written by Richards J Heuer and published by Pickle Partners Publishing. This book was released on 2020-03-05 with total page 344 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this seminal work, published by the C.I.A. itself, produced by Intelligence veteran Richards Heuer discusses three pivotal points. First, human minds are ill-equipped ("poorly wired") to cope effectively with both inherent and induced uncertainty. Second, increased knowledge of our inherent biases tends to be of little assistance to the analyst. And lastly, tools and techniques that apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex problems.

Author : Riccardo Viale
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1317330803
Total Pages : 681 pages
Book Rating : 4.06/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Routledge Handbook of Bounded Rationality written by Riccardo Viale and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2020-12-02 with total page 681 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Herbert Simon’s renowned theory of bounded rationality is principally interested in cognitive constraints and environmental factors and influences which prevent people from thinking or behaving according to formal rationality. Simon’s theory has been expanded in numerous directions and taken up by various disciplines with an interest in how humans think and behave. This includes philosophy, psychology, neurocognitive sciences, economics, political science, sociology, management, and organization studies. The Routledge Handbook of Bounded Rationality draws together an international team of leading experts to survey the recent literature and the latest developments in these related fields. The chapters feature entries on key behavioural phenomena, including reasoning, judgement, decision making, uncertainty, risk, heuristics and biases, and fast and frugal heuristics. The text also examines current ideas such as fast and slow thinking, nudge, ecological rationality, evolutionary psychology, embodied cognition, and neurophilosophy. Overall, the volume serves to provide the most complete state-of-the-art collection on bounded rationality available. This book is essential reading for students and scholars of economics, psychology, neurocognitive sciences, political sciences, and philosophy.

Author : Geoffrey Ellis
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319958313
Total Pages : 184 pages
Book Rating : 4.16/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Cognitive Biases in Visualizations written by Geoffrey Ellis and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-09-27 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book brings together the latest research in this new and exciting area of visualization, looking at classifying and modelling cognitive biases, together with user studies which reveal their undesirable impact on human judgement, and demonstrating how visual analytic techniques can provide effective support for mitigating key biases. A comprehensive coverage of this very relevant topic is provided though this collection of extended papers from the successful DECISIVe workshop at IEEE VIS, together with an introduction to cognitive biases and an invited chapter from a leading expert in intelligence analysis. Cognitive Biases in Visualizations will be of interest to a wide audience from those studying cognitive biases to visualization designers and practitioners. It offers a choice of research frameworks, help with the design of user studies, and proposals for the effective measurement of biases. The impact of human visualization literacy, competence and human cognition on cognitive biases are also examined, as well as the notion of system-induced biases. The well referenced chapters provide an excellent starting point for gaining an awareness of the detrimental effect that some cognitive biases can have on users’ decision-making. Human behavior is complex and we are only just starting to unravel the processes involved and investigate ways in which the computer can assist, however the final section supports the prospect that visual analytics, in particular, can counter some of the more common cognitive errors, which have been proven to be so costly.

Author : Richards J. Heuer
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 212 pages
Book Rating : 4.46/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Psychology of Intelligence Analysis written by Richards J. Heuer and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 212 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Author : Timothy Walton
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 0521132657
Total Pages : 309 pages
Book Rating : 4.57/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Challenges in Intelligence Analysis written by Timothy Walton and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2010-08-30 with total page 309 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Challenges in Intelligence Analysis, first published in 2010, Timothy Walton offers concrete, reality-based ways to improve intelligence analysis.

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309176980
Total Pages : 352 pages
Book Rating : 4.89/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Intelligence Analysis written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2011-04-08 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. intelligence community (IC) is a complex human enterprise whose success depends on how well the people in it perform their work. Although often aided by sophisticated technologies, these people ultimately rely on their own intellect to identify, synthesize, and communicate the information on which the nation's security depends. The IC's success depends on having trained, motivated, and thoughtful people working within organizations able to understand, value, and coordinate their capabilities. Intelligence Analysis provides up-to-date scientific guidance for the intelligence community (IC) so that it might improve individual and group judgments, communication between analysts, and analytic processes. The papers in this volume provide the detailed evidentiary base for the National Research Council's report, Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences. The opening chapter focuses on the structure, missions, operations, and characteristics of the IC while the following 12 papers provide in-depth reviews of key topics in three areas: analytic methods, analysts, and organizations. Informed by the IC's unique missions and constraints, each paper documents the latest advancements of the relevant science and is a stand-alone resource for the IC's leadership and workforce. The collection allows readers to focus on one area of interest (analytic methods, analysts, or organizations) or even one particular aspect of a category. As a collection, the volume provides a broad perspective of the issues involved in making difficult decisions, which is at the heart of intelligence analysis.

Author : Juárez Ramos, Verónica
Publisher : IGI Global
ISBN 13 : 1522529799
Total Pages : 262 pages
Book Rating : 4.98/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Analyzing the Role of Cognitive Biases in the Decision-Making Process written by Juárez Ramos, Verónica and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2018-11-16 with total page 262 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision making or making judgments is an essential function in the ordinary life of any individual. Decisions can often be made easily, but sometimes, it can be difficult due to conflict, uncertainty, or ambiguity of the variables required to make the decision. As human beings, we constantly have to decide between different activities such as occupational, recreational, political, economic, etc. These decisions can be transcendental or inconsequential. Analyzing the Role of Cognitive Biases in the Decision-Making Process presents comprehensive research focusing on cognitive shortcuts in the decision-making process. While highlighting topics including jumping to conclusion bias, personality traits, and theoretical models, this book is ideally designed for mental health professionals, psychologists, sociologists, managers, academicians, researchers, and upper-level students seeking current research on cognitive biases that affect individual decision making in daily life.

Author : Richards J. Heuer Jr.
Publisher : CQ Press
ISBN 13 : 148331202X
Total Pages : 385 pages
Book Rating : 4.26/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis written by Richards J. Heuer Jr. and published by CQ Press. This book was released on 2014-05-28 with total page 385 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this Second Edition of Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, authors Richards J. Heuer Jr. and Randolph H. Pherson showcase fifty-five structured analytic techniques—five new to this edition—that represent the most current best practices in intelligence, law enforcement, homeland security, and business analysis.

Author : Osonde A. Osoba
Publisher : Rand Corporation
ISBN 13 : 0833097636
Total Pages : 44 pages
Book Rating : 4.37/5 ( download)

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Download or read book An Intelligence in Our Image written by Osonde A. Osoba and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2017-04-05 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Machine learning algorithms and artificial intelligence influence many aspects of life today. This report identifies some of their shortcomings and associated policy risks and examines some approaches for combating these problems.