Cognition As Intuitive Statistics

Author : Gerd Gigerenzer
Publisher : Psychology Press
ISBN 13 : 1317362187
Total Pages : 231 pages
Book Rating : 4.80/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book Cognition as Intuitive Statistics written by Gerd Gigerenzer and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2015-08-14 with total page 231 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Originally published in 1987, this title is about theory construction in psychology. Where theories come from, as opposed to how they become established, was almost a no-man’s land in the history and philosophy of science at the time. The authors argue that in the science of mind, theories are particularly likely to come from tools, and they are especially concerned with the emergence of the metaphor of the mind as an intuitive statistician. In the first chapter, the authors discuss the rise of the inference revolution, which institutionalized those statistical tools that later became theories of cognitive processes. In each of the four following chapters they treat one major topic of cognitive psychology and show to what degree statistical concepts transformed their understanding of those topics.

Author : Gerd Gigerenzer
Publisher : Psychology Press
ISBN 13 : 1317362179
Total Pages : 214 pages
Book Rating : 4.73/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book Cognition as Intuitive Statistics written by Gerd Gigerenzer and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2015-08-14 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Originally published in 1987, this title is about theory construction in psychology. Where theories come from, as opposed to how they become established, was almost a no-man’s land in the history and philosophy of science at the time. The authors argue that in the science of mind, theories are particularly likely to come from tools, and they are especially concerned with the emergence of the metaphor of the mind as an intuitive statistician. In the first chapter, the authors discuss the rise of the inference revolution, which institutionalized those statistical tools that later became theories of cognitive processes. In each of the four following chapters they treat one major topic of cognitive psychology and show to what degree statistical concepts transformed their understanding of those topics.

Author : Raymond S. Nickerson
Publisher : Psychology Press
ISBN 13 : 113561461X
Total Pages : 798 pages
Book Rating : 4.14/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book Cognition and Chance written by Raymond S. Nickerson and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2004-06-24 with total page 798 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Lack of ability to think probabilistically makes one prone to a variety of irrational fears and vulnerable to scams designed to exploit probabilistic naiveté, impairs decision making under uncertainty, facilitates the misinterpretation of statistical information, and precludes critical evaluation of likelihood claims. Cognition and Chance presents an overview of the information needed to avoid such pitfalls and to assess and respond to probabilistic situations in a rational way. Dr. Nickerson investigates such questions as how good individuals are at thinking probabilistically and how consistent their reasoning under uncertainty is with principles of mathematical statistics and probability theory. He reviews evidence that has been produced in researchers' attempts to investigate these and similar types of questions. Seven conceptual chapters address such topics as probability, chance, randomness, coincidences, inverse probability, paradoxes, dilemmas, and statistics. The remaining five chapters focus on empirical studies of individuals' abilities and limitations as probabilistic thinkers. Topics include estimation and prediction, perception of covariation, choice under uncertainty, and people as intuitive probabilists. Cognition and Chance is intended to appeal to researchers and students in the areas of probability, statistics, psychology, business, economics, decision theory, and social dilemmas.

Author : Varda Liberman
Publisher : Columbia University Press
ISBN 13 : 0231547404
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.06/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book Critical Thinking written by Varda Liberman and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2024-10-06 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Life is fundamentally uncertain. We do not know whether it will rain, whether the market will go up or down, whether our unhealthy eating choices will have serious consequences, or whether terrorists will strike our city. To make matters worse, we also lack a tried and true procedure for evaluating the likelihood of such events. Yet we are required to make decisions great and small that depend on these events. In the absence of certainty or an objective procedure for estimating probabilities, we must rely on our own reasoning, which a great deal of research has shown to be less rational than we would like to believe. In Critical Thinking, Varda Liberman and Amos Tversky examine how we make judgments under uncertainty and explain how various biases can distort our consideration of evidence. Using everyday examples, they detail how to examine data and their implications with the goal of helping readers improve their intuitive reasoning and judgment. From the courtroom to the basketball court, cholesterol count to the existence of the supernatural, Liberman and Tversky explore the fundamental insights of probability, causal relationships, and making inferences from samples. They delve into the psychology of judgment, explaining why first impressions are often wrong and correct answers go against our intuitions. Originally written in Hebrew and published by the Open University in 1996, Critical Thinking is an essential guide for students and interested readers alike that teaches us to become more critical readers and consumers of information.

Author : Daniel Kahneman
Publisher : Farrar, Straus and Giroux
ISBN 13 : 1429969350
Total Pages : 511 pages
Book Rating : 4.52/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book Thinking, Fast and Slow written by Daniel Kahneman and published by Farrar, Straus and Giroux. This book was released on 2011-10-25 with total page 511 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Major New York Times bestseller Winner of the National Academy of Sciences Best Book Award in 2012 Selected by the New York Times Book Review as one of the ten best books of 2011 A Globe and Mail Best Books of the Year 2011 Title One of The Economist's 2011 Books of the Year One of The Wall Street Journal's Best Nonfiction Books of the Year 2011 2013 Presidential Medal of Freedom Recipient Kahneman's work with Amos Tversky is the subject of Michael Lewis's The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Minds In his mega bestseller, Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman, the renowned psychologist and winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, takes us on a groundbreaking tour of the mind and explains the two systems that drive the way we think. System 1 is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. The impact of overconfidence on corporate strategies, the difficulties of predicting what will make us happy in the future, the profound effect of cognitive biases on everything from playing the stock market to planning our next vacation—each of these can be understood only by knowing how the two systems shape our judgments and decisions. Engaging the reader in a lively conversation about how we think, Kahneman reveals where we can and cannot trust our intuitions and how we can tap into the benefits of slow thinking. He offers practical and enlightening insights into how choices are made in both our business and our personal lives—and how we can use different techniques to guard against the mental glitches that often get us into trouble. Winner of the National Academy of Sciences Best Book Award and the Los Angeles Times Book Prize and selected by The New York Times Book Review as one of the ten best books of 2011, Thinking, Fast and Slow is destined to be a classic.

Author : Klaus Fiedler
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521831598
Total Pages : 504 pages
Book Rating : 4.98/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book Information Sampling and Adaptive Cognition written by Klaus Fiedler and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2006 with total page 504 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book proposes that environmental information samples are biased and cognitive processes are not.

Author : Russell Poldrack
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 069123082X
Total Pages : 281 pages
Book Rating : 4.25/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book Statistical Thinking written by Russell Poldrack and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2023-05-16 with total page 281 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An essential introduction to statistics for students of psychology and the social sciences Statistical thinking is increasingly essential to understanding our complex world and making informed decisions based on uncertain data. This incisive undergraduate textbook introduces students to the main ideas of statistics in a way that focuses on deep comprehension rather than rote application or mathematical immersion. The presentation of statistical concepts is thoroughly modern, sharing cutting-edge ideas from the fields of machine learning and data science that help students effectively use statistical methods to ask questions about data. Statistical Thinking provides the tools to describe complex patterns that emerge from data and to make accurate predictions and decisions based on data. Introduces statistics from a uniquely modern standpoint, helping students to use the basic ideas of statistics to analyze real data Presents a model of statistics that ties together a broad range of statistical techniques that can be used to answer many different kinds of questions Explains how to use statistics to generate reproducible findings and avoid common mistakes in statistical practice Includes a wealth of examples using real-world data Accompanied by computer code in R and in Python—freely available online—that enables students to see how each example is generated and to code their own analyses

Author : ZHENLONG WANG
Publisher : American Academic Press
ISBN 13 : 1631814400
Total Pages : 224 pages
Book Rating : 4.02/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book RESEARCH ON STATISTICAL PHILOSOPHY written by ZHENLONG WANG and published by American Academic Press. This book was released on 2023-11-21 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Based on the cornerstone of philosophy, this book examines the essence of statistics, cognitive system and its functions, method background, logical thinking, and other basic issues from a philosophical point of view. The philosophical significance of statistics is explored and studied.

Author : Gerd Gigerenzer
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0198031173
Total Pages : 359 pages
Book Rating : 4.78/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book Adaptive Thinking written by Gerd Gigerenzer and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2002-03-07 with total page 359 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Where do new ideas come from? What is social intelligence? Why do social scientists perform mindless statistical rituals? This vital book is about rethinking rationality as adaptive thinking: to understand how minds cope with their environments, both ecological and social. Gerd Gigerenzer proposes and illustrates a bold new research program that investigates the psychology of rationality, introducing the concepts of ecological, bounded, and social rationality. His path-breaking collection takes research on thinking, social intelligence, creativity, and decision-making out of an ethereal world where the laws of logic and probability reign, and places it into our real world of human behavior and interaction. Adaptive Thinking is accessibly written for general readers with an interest in psychology, cognitive science, economics, sociology, philosophy, artificial intelligence, and animal behavior. It also teaches a practical audience, such as physicians, AIDS counselors, and experts in criminal law, how to understand and communicate uncertainties and risks.

Author : David Hardman
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470871776
Total Pages : 395 pages
Book Rating : 4.75/5 ( download)

DOWNLOAD NOW!

Download or read book Thinking written by David Hardman and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2004-01-09 with total page 395 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first international handbook to bring the areas of reasoning,judgment and decision making together, now in paperback format. The book brings three of the important topics of thinkingtogether - reasoning, judgment and decision making â?? anddiscusses key issues in each area. The studies described range fromthose that are purely laboratory based to those that involveexperts making real world judgments, in areas such as medical andlegal decision making and political and economic forecasting. * International collection of original chapters by leadingresearchers in the field * Several chapters contain important new theoreticalperspectives * Paperback version is more affordable for individualresearchers