Climate Variability And Maize Yield In South Africa Results From Gme And Mele Methods

Author : Wisdom Akpalu, Rashid M. Hassan, and Claudia Ringler IFPRI Discussion Paper No. 843 2008
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 20 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Download or read book Climate Variability and Maize Yield in South Africa: Results from GME and MELE Methods written by Wisdom Akpalu, Rashid M. Hassan, and Claudia Ringler IFPRI Discussion Paper No. 843 2008 and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Author : Lwandle Mqadi
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.53/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Production Function Analysis of the Sensitivity of Maize Production to Climate Change in South Africa written by Lwandle Mqadi and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Maize production accounts for about 40% of the entire area cultivated in South Africa and is highly sensitive to climate variability. Maize is thus conservatively a staple food for more than 70% of the South African population whilst the maize industry stimulates the economy directly by providing secondary industries with over a billion worth of business each year. This study used the production function approach to evaluate likely impacts of climate change on maize production in South Africa. Data for this study have been obtained from experimental research sites in the 19 main maize producing regions in South Africa. The estimated coefficients of the production function model were used to derive measures of elasticity and optimal climate damage points as well as to simulate partial and total impacts of changes in levels of climate variables on maize yield. The Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) benchmark predictions of global warming for Southern Africa indicates that with the doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, a hotter and drier climate for the western semi-arid regions of Southern Africa and a hotter and slightly wetter climate for the eastern sub-tropical regions of Southern Africa are anticipated. Results indicated that rainfall and net solar radiation diffused within the maize crop have a non-linear and significant impact on average maize yield. Solar radiation rather than temperature was included in the regression analysis as temperature measures did not perform well. The results illustrated that increasing rainfall levels in all three main growth stages (sowing to emergence, juvenile to tassel initiation, and tassel initiation to grain filling growth stages) would increase maize yields whilst increases in solar radiation particularly during tassel initiation to grain filling would decrease maize yield. These results suggest that farmers could adopt a number of adaptation options including manipulation of planting dates, introduction of heat tolerant maize varieties and other options to mitigate the negative impacts of highlighted increases in solar radiation levels. Results also showed that for the semi-dry regions of South Africa, early growth stages of the maize crop would be mostly affected by decreases in rainfall whilst for the wet eastern regions the forecasted drier conditions would affect mostly the late maize growth stages. To capture the cumulative impact of increasing solar radiation and rainfall amounts marginally across all growth stages, a climate simulation analysis whereby the two main IPCC warming scenarios predicted for the Southern Africa region were used. In the partial effects analysis rainfall and solar radiation changes were simulated separately for each growth stage at a time, whereas in the total effects analysis rainfall and solar radiation changes were simulated simultaneously across all growth stages. Results of these analyses suggest that the west semi-dry regions of South Africa might benefit from the forecasted decreases in both rainfall and solar radiation, especially if sensitivity of the maize crop during its second growth stage is mitigated through the introduction of irrigation. This study also illustrated that maize production in the wet east regions might benefit in all its three growth stages from the forecasted increases in rainfall and solar radiation, especially if sensitivity of the first growth stage is reduced through the possible shifting of planting dates to mitigate the effects of increased rainfall forecasted for this region. One should note however, that the maize crop has the ability to agronomically adapt easily to drier conditions. Other attributes which further assists the resistance of the maize crop to climate changes, include extensive conservation soil tillage farming practices which could be applied to optimise soil infiltration rates whilst minimising evaporation rates, thus reducing soil erosion. The above results highlight the need for investments in improving the adaptive capacity of farmers, especially small-scale farmers who are severely restricted by their heavy reliance on natural climate factors and at the same time lack complementary inputs and institutional support systems. The existence of institutional support systems may assist farmers in further understanding anticipated climate changes and available conservation agricultural practices e.g. cost effective irrigation control systems. Other adaptation options include improved capacity of all the stakeholders involved in maize production (farmers, processors, marketers, exporters etc.) to better the ability to cope with the adversities of climate change through the use of farm planning, available crop insurance systems with regards to floods and droughts, improved weather and climate monitoring and forecasting. At a regional scale, extensive agricultural planning and risk reduction programmes may assist with spreading losses over larger regional areas, which may serve to reduce overall risk to growers. One important limitation of this study was that the analyses focused on the experimental sites only and hence did not consider all maize production areas across the country (which includes sites under small-scale farming). Also, the model adopted for this study also did not include the effects of carbon dioxide fertilisation and price movements, which are crucial. In conclusion, then, there is an urgent need for the South African National Department of Agriculture to look at how maize farmers (and especially small-scale farmers) could be assisted in adapting their traditional cropping methods to the forecasted changes in climate, whilst taking into consideration all the options presented above.

Author : Walter Leal Filho
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030879348
Total Pages : 490 pages
Book Rating : 4.41/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Handbook of Climate Change Across the Food Supply Chain written by Walter Leal Filho and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-04-22 with total page 490 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents climate change as a global phenomenon which affects the entire food chain. Many studies analyzing environmental impacts of food systems confirm significant effects of food production on climate change. Most of them associate primary production with emission of greenhouse gasses identified as one of the causes resulting in warming the atmosphere and global climate effects. A wider perspective shows that the food chains start at farms with consumers being at the end of the pipeline. This approach emphasizes the role of the entire food chain highlighting different kinds of environmental impacts affecting climate change. On the other side, temperature changes and variations of precipitation patterns, together with extreme weather events and water reduction, are recognized as predictors for producing less food, decreased food quality, new food safety risks, biodiversity losses, and depletion of resources associated with food production in modified circumstances. Last but not least, these effects introduce new threats known as food security where some assumptions stress that almost one billion of people are hungry not receiving enough food as a result of climate changes. As a result, the UN highlights the need for combating climate change and promotes sustainable (food) consumption and production. Based on the perceived need to promote and disseminate information on climate change related to food system, the “Handbook of Climate change across the food supply chain” is being produced. The publication compiles information, experiences, practical initiatives, and projects around the subject matter and makes it available to a wide audience. It is expected that the “Handbook of Climate change across the food supply chain” makes many benefits of climate service clearer and, inter alia, leads to an increase in the demand for such important services.

Author : Adisa Omolola Mayowa
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.74/5 ( download)

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Download or read book The Use of Satellite-derived Data and Neural-network Analysis to Examine Variation in Maize Yield Under Changing Climate written by Adisa Omolola Mayowa and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change and variability is foreseen to have direct and indirect effects on the existing agricultural production systems potentially threatening local, regional and/or global food security depending on the spatial scale of the change. The trend and level of impact caused by climate change and/or variability is region dependent and adaptive capacity. Climate change is projected to have more adverse impact in high vulnerability areas of sub-Saharan Africa. This study aimed to examine the variation in maize yield and develop a framework for predicting maize yield in response to climate change. To achieve this aim, this study has analyzed the impact of agro-climatic parameters on maize production across the major four maize producing provinces of South Africa. This study went further to investigate changes in the satellite derived phenological parameters and its relationship with maize production. In addition, the influence of drought (a derivative of climate change) on maize production was investigated. The study concluded by integrating all datasets used in each objective to develop an empirical predicting model using artificial neural network. Previous studies have quantified the impact of climatic variables on maize and at a small geographic area. Attempts to predict maize yield have been minimal and the use of artificial intelligence such as the artificial neural network has not been conducted. In this study, alternative sources of climatic and environmental data have been employed using remotely sensed data which offers possibilities of collecting continuous data over a large area (including remote areas) through the use of satellite. The analysis of agro-climatic variables (precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, minimum and maximum temperatures) spanning a period of 19860́32015, over the North West, Free State, Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) provinces, indicated that there is a negative trend in precipitation for North West and Free State provinces and positive trend in maximum temperature for all the provinces over the study period. Further more, the result showed that one or more different agro-climatic variables has more influence on maize across the provinces. Analysis of the phenological parameters of maize indicated that climate change and climate variability affect plant phenology largely during the vegetative and reproductive stages. NDVI values exhibited a decreasing trend across the maize producing provinces of South Africa. The results further demonstrate that the influences of climate variables on phenological parameters exhibit a strong space-time and common covariate dependence. Agro-climatic variables can predict about 46% of the variability of phenology indicators and about 63% of the variability of yield indicators for the entire study area. The study also illustrated the spatial patterns of drought depicting drought severity, frequency, and intensity which has the potential to influence crop yield. The study found that maize yield is most sensitive to 3-month timescale coinciding with maize growing season (r = 0.59; p

Author : Management Association, Information Resources
Publisher : IGI Global
ISBN 13 : 1668436876
Total Pages : 2064 pages
Book Rating : 4.75/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Research Anthology on Environmental and Societal Impacts of Climate Change written by Management Association, Information Resources and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2021-10-29 with total page 2064 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change is an issue that has been generating a significant amount of discussion, research, and debate in recent years. Climate change continues to evolve at a rapid rate and continues to have a wide array of effects on everything from temperature to plant life. Beyond the negative environmental impacts, climate change is also proving to be a detriment to society with increasingly violent natural disasters and human health effects. It is essential to stay up to date on the latest in emerging research within this field as it continues to develop. The Research Anthology on Environmental and Societal Impacts of Climate Change discusses the varied effects of climate change throughout all areas of life and provides a comprehensive dive into the latest research on key elements of society that are affected by the rapidly increasing clime. Covering a range of topics including reproduction, plants and animals, and energy demand, it is ideal for environmentalists, policymakers, environmental engineers, scientists, disaster and crisis management personnel, professionals, government officials, practitioners, upper-level students, and academics interested in emerging research on the numerous impacts of climate change.

Author : Karmaoui, Ahmed
Publisher : IGI Global
ISBN 13 : 1799833453
Total Pages : 333 pages
Book Rating : 4.51/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture and Aquaculture written by Karmaoui, Ahmed and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2020-08-28 with total page 333 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change is expected to influence several productive sectors, the most significant of which is agriculture. Agriculture comprises an important sector of the global economy that includes crops, livestock, and seafood. Agriculture, aquaculture, and fisheries are closely linked to the climate, with changes in climatic conditions able to drastically affect animal and plant productivity, which in turn has a direct impact on human well-being. Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture and Aquaculture is a critical scholarly publication that provides an integrated assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture, aquaculture, and fisheries and explores a set of strategies to secure sustainable food security. While highlighting the associations between climate change, food security, and socio-economic development, the book establishes an inventory of good agricultural practices for the adaptation to climate change and presents solutions for making agricultural and food systems more sustainable. Featuring a wide range of topics such as carbon sequestration, ecosystem management, and desertification, this book is ideal for agriculturalists, environmentalists, fisheries, marine biologists, ichthyologists, government officials, academicians, policy makers, scientists, professionals, researchers, and students.

Author : Bruce Frayne
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1136502025
Total Pages : 235 pages
Book Rating : 4.26/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Climate Change, Assets and Food Security in Southern African Cities written by Bruce Frayne and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-03-01 with total page 235 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is overwhelming evidence that the climate is changing. It is the poorest countries and people who are the most vulnerable to this threat and who will suffer the most. This book shows how increasing urbanization and growing poverty levels mean that it is imperative to ask how climate change might impact on asset accumulation and food security for the urban poor. It demonstrates how these three, often separate foci, can be brought together to frame a holistic urban adaptation approach. Furthermore, although much has been written about climate change, limited evidence exists in southern Africa of how climate change has been integrated in urban planning. The authors explore the urban climate change nexus linking asset adaptation, climate change science and food security through several case study cities. These include Cape Town, George and Khara Hais (South Africa), Lusaka (Zambia), Maputo (Mozambique), Mombasa (Kenya) and Harare (Zimbabwe). The results shed light on how this nexus might be explored from different perspectives, both theoretical and practical, in order to plan for a more resilient future. Climate Change, Assets and Food Security in Southern African Cities comprises ten chapters which focus on southern African cities, with each chapter written by highly experienced academics, research-focused practitioners and professional planners. Although the book concentrates on southern African cities, the insights which are presented can be used to understand other urban centres in low and middle-income countries outside of this region and around the world.

Author : Valerie Mueller, Abusaleh Shariff
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 24 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Download or read book Preliminary Evidence on Internal Migration, Remittances, and Teen Schooling in India written by Valerie Mueller, Abusaleh Shariff and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2009 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Migration can serve as an outlet for employment, higher earnings, and reduced income risk for households in developing countries. We use the 2004-2005 Human Development Profile of India survey to examine correlations between the receipt of remittances from internal migrants and human capital investment in rural areas. We employ a propensity score-matching approach to account for the selectivity of households into receiving remittances. We interpret the results conservatively due to the cross-sectional nature of the data. We find a positive correlation between remittances received from internal migrants and the schooling attendance of teens. The magnitude of the correlation is greater when focusing on low-caste households, and male schooling attendance in particular becomes more positive and statistically significant. Our findings provide a basis for establishing future research in the areas of migration and social protection in India."--Authors' abstract.

Author : Glwadys Aymone Gbetibouo
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 52 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Download or read book Understanding Farmers' Perceptions and Adaptations to Climate Change and Variability: The Case of the Limpopo Basin, South Africa written by Glwadys Aymone Gbetibouo and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2009 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change is expected to have serious environmental, economic, and social impacts on South Africa. In particular, rural farmers, whose livelihoods depend on the use of natural resources, are likely to bear the brunt of adverse impacts. The extent to which these impacts are felt depends in large part on the extent of adaptation in response to climate change. This research uses a "bottom-up" approach, which seeks to gain insights from the farmers themselves based on a farm household survey. Farm-level data were collected from 794 households in the Limpopo River Basin of South Africa for the farming season 2004-2005. The study examines how farmer perceptions correspond with climate data recorded at meteorological stations in the Limpopo River Basin and analyzes farmers' adaptation responses to climate change and variability. A Heckman probit model and a multinomial logit (MNL) model are used to examine the determinants of adaptation to climate change and variability. The statistical analysis of the climate data shows that temperature has increased over the years. Rainfall is characterized by large interannual variability, with the previous three years being very dry. Indeed, the analysis shows that farmers' perceptions of climate change are in line with the climatic data records. However, only approximately half of the farmers have adjusted their farming practices to account for the impacts of climate change. Lack of access to credit was cited by respondents as the main factor inhibiting adaptation. The results of the multinomial logit and Heckman probit models highlighted that household size, farming experience, wealth, access to credit, access to water, tenure rights, off-farm activities, and access to extension are the main factors that enhance adaptive capacity. Thus, the government should design policies aimed at improving these factors.

Author : M. Dinesh Kumar
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0323914519
Total Pages : 280 pages
Book Rating : 4.12/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Water Productivity and Food Security written by M. Dinesh Kumar and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2021-08-21 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Water Productivity and Food Security: Global Trends and Regional Patterns, Volume Three reviews the need for water productivity improvements in agriculture, addressing three distinct questions pertaining to agricultural water productivity improvement in developing countries, including what are the regions where water is a limiting factor for raising agricultural outputs and water productivity improvements, what are the technological measures in irrigation that can raise agricultural water productivity and result in water saving at various scales, and what opportunities exist in the developing economies of South Asia and Africa for raising water productivity and improving water economy at basin scale. This book provides a framework to characterize river basins based on water availability, water supplies, water uses and water demands to ascertain the need and measures available for improving crop water productivity that would be effective at various scales, i.e., plant-level, plot-level, irrigation system level and basin level. This is an essential reference for anyone interested in water management and agriculture. Presents clear explanations of the physical and technical measures that can be adopted to improve productivity of water in agricultural production under different basin conditions Offers physical strategies for improving water productivity in agriculture in different agroecological regions, along with the institutional and policy measures that affect them Includes methodologies for assessing the food security challenges of individual nations using empirical analysis and global datasets