China And Asia In Global Trade Slowdown

Author : Gee Hee Hong
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484368568
Total Pages : 46 pages
Book Rating : 4.65/5 ( download)

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Download or read book China and Asia in Global Trade Slowdown written by Gee Hee Hong and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-05-26 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Asia and China made disproportionate contributions to the slowdown of global trade growth in 2015. China’s import growth slowed starkly, driven by both external and domestic factors, including a rebalancing of demand. Econometric results point to weak investment and rebalancing as the main causes of the import slowdown. Spillover effects from China’s rebalancing are estimated for some 60 countries using value-added trade data, and are found to be more negative on Asia and commodity exporters than others.

Author : Board of Governors of the Federal Reserv
Publisher : Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
ISBN 13 : 9781542904476
Total Pages : 34 pages
Book Rating : 4.71/5 ( download)

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Download or read book The Global Trade Slowdown and Its Implications for Emerging Asia written by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserv and published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform. This book was released on 2016-11-18 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy is at a critical juncture today. According to the International Monetary Fund's latest World Economic Outlook, global gross domestic product (GDP) is set to grow at only 3.1 percent this year, the lowest rate of growth since the Global Financial Crisis. Investment and productivity remain subdued, despite extremely low and even negative interest rates in many economies. One key aspect of global weakness that is of particular relevance to emerging Asian economies is the sharp slowdown in global trade. This slowdown represents a notable departure from the "normal" times of the past few decades, and is the subject of my remarks today.

Author : Cristina Constantinescu
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498399134
Total Pages : 44 pages
Book Rating : 4.35/5 ( download)

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Download or read book The Global Trade Slowdown written by Cristina Constantinescu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-01-21 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper focuses on the sluggish growth of world trade relative to income growth in recent years. The analysis uses an empirical strategy based on an error correction model to assess whether the global trade slowdown is structural or cyclical. An estimate of the relationship between trade and income in the past four decades reveals that the long-term trade elasticity rose sharply in the 1990s, but declined significantly in the 2000s even before the global financial crisis. These results suggest that trade is growing slowly not only because of slow growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but also because of a structural change in the trade-GDP relationship in recent years. The available evidence suggests that the explanation may lie in the slowing pace of international vertical specialization rather than increasing protection or the changing composition of trade and GDP.

Author : Patrick Blagrave
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475539460
Total Pages : 18 pages
Book Rating : 4.62/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Spillover Implications of China's Slowdown for International Trade written by Patrick Blagrave and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-09-27 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using a panel vector autoregression and a novel measure of export-intensity-adjusted final demand, this note studies spillovers from China’s economic transition on export growth in 46 advanced and emerging market economies. The analysis suggests that a 1 percentage point shock to China’s final demand growth reduces the average country’s export growth by 0.1–0.2 percentage point. The impact is largest in Emerging Asia, where an export-growth-accounting exercise suggests that China’s economic transition has reduced average export growth rates by 1 percentage point since early 2014. Other countries linked to China’s manufacturing sector, as well as commodity exporters, are also significantly affected. This suggests that trading partners need to adjust to an environment of weaker external demand as China completes its transition to a more sustainable growth model.

Author : Allan Dizioli
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475524269
Total Pages : 35 pages
Book Rating : 4.60/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Spillovers from China’s Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies written by Allan Dizioli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-08-09 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After many years of rapid expansion, China’s growth is slowing to more sustainable levels and is rebalancing, with consumption becoming the main growth driver. This transition is likely to have negative effects on its trading partners in the near term. This paper studies the potential spillovers to the ASEAN-5 economies through trade, commodity prices, and financial markets. It finds that countries with closer trade linkages with China (Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand) and net commodity exporters (Indonesia and Malaysia) would suffer the largest impact, with growth falling between 0.2 and 0.5 percentage points in response to a decline in China’s growth by 1 percentage point depending on the model used and the nature of the shock. The impact could be larger if China’s slowdown and rebalancing coincides with bouts of global financial volatility. There are also opportunities from China’s rebalancing, both in merchandise and services trade, and there is preliminary evidence that some ASEAN-5 economies are already benefiting from these trends.

Author : Aqib Aslam
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484328981
Total Pages : 37 pages
Book Rating : 4.89/5 ( download)

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Download or read book The Slowdown in Global Trade: A Symptom of A Weak Recovery written by Aqib Aslam and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-11-15 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global trade growth has slowed since 2012 relative both to its strong historical performance and to overall economic growth. This paper aims to quantify the role of weak economic growth and changes in its decomposition in accounting for the slowdown in trade using a reduced form and a structural approach. Both analytical investigations suggest that the overall weakness in economic activity, particularly investment, has been the primary restraint on trade growth, accounting for over 80 percent of the decline in the growth of the volume of goods trade between 2012–16 and 2003–07. However, other factors are also weighing on trade in recent years, especially in emerging market and developing economies, as evidenced by the non-negligible role attributed to trade costs by the structural approach.

Author : Linda Yueh
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1134207581
Total Pages : 531 pages
Book Rating : 4.89/5 ( download)

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Download or read book The Future of Asian Trade and Growth written by Linda Yueh and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 531 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a comprehensive analysis of current trends of trade and economic growth in Asia, assessing how they are likely to develop in the future. It examines the evolving patterns of Asian economic development with the emergence of China, including since China’s accession to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in 2001. It is written by experts specialising in economic growth and regional and global trade/investment issues, alongside country specialists who have examined the development path of Asian economies. It discusses the significance of a export-oriented growth strategy on the Asian region, and the likely patterns of intra-regional specialisation given China’s rise. The book examines the degree to which the remarkable growth of China is likely to affect other Asian countries in terms of global market share, and growth prospects. The book explores how the rise of intra-industry trade is affecting patterns of specialisation in the region, and appraises the role of multinational corporations and foreign direct investment. Informed by the latest empirical economic thinking, this book is a rigorous examination of the influence of an emerging economic superpower, and the future for economic growth in Asia. Readers interested in the implications of the rise of China, the effect on the economic development path of the most successful developing nations of our time and the lessons to be heeded from China’s integration with the global economy will find this a thorough yet accessible account of the influence of an emerging economic superpower.

Author : Robert C. Feenstra
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226239721
Total Pages : 603 pages
Book Rating : 4.29/5 ( download)

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Download or read book China's Growing Role in World Trade written by Robert C. Feenstra and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2010-03-10 with total page 603 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In less than three decades, China has grown from playing a negligible role in international trade to being one of the world's largest exporters, a substantial importer of raw materials, intermediate outputs, and other goods, and both a recipient and source of foreign investment. Not surprisingly, China's economic dynamism has generated considerable attention and concern in the United States and beyond. While some analysts have warned of the potential pitfalls of China's rise—the loss of jobs, for example—others have highlighted the benefits of new market and investment opportunities for US firms. Bringing together an expert group of contributors, China's Growing Role in World Trade undertakes an empirical investigation of the effects of China's new status. The essays collected here provide detailed analyses of the microstructure of trade, the macroeconomic implications, sector-level issues, and foreign direct investment. This volume's careful examination of micro data in light of established economic theories clarifies a number of misconceptions, disproves some conventional wisdom, and documents data patterns that enhance our understanding of China's trade and what it may mean to the rest of the world.

Author : Takatoshi Ito
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1849805296
Total Pages : 353 pages
Book Rating : 4.92/5 ( download)

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Download or read book The Rise of China and Structural Changes in Korea and Asia written by Takatoshi Ito and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2010-01-01 with total page 353 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book brings together studies conducted by researchers in East Asian countries who seek to better understand the impact of China s rise and the consequent policy challenges. The expert contributors illustrate that the rise of China and its integration with the rest of the world is one of the most important developments in the global economy. Over the past thirty years or so, China s economy has grown at nearly ten percent per annum with the expansion of the modern, export-oriented industrial sector, to become the third largest economy in the world and the second largest in trade. This book reviews the economic growth of East Asian countries since the 1990s and the various impacts that the rise of China has had on these countries. In particular, it addresses policy challenges faced in coping with the rise of China and maintaining economic growth. This timely book will strongly appeal to academics and researchers focusing on East Asia and China as well as those interested in international trade, development and economic growth.

Author : Mr.Alexei Kireyev
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513555855
Total Pages : 45 pages
Book Rating : 4.50/5 ( download)

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Download or read book China’s Imports Slowdown written by Mr.Alexei Kireyev and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-03-07 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper models international spillovers from a hypothetical drop of China’s imports as a result of China’s rebalancing of its growth model. A network-based model used in the paper allows capturing higher round network effects of the shock, which are largely unaccounted for in the existing literature. Such effects include direct spillovers from China on its trading partners, subsequent spillins among them, and spillbacks on China itself. The paper finds that the network effects most likely will be substantial, may amplify initial shock, and change the direction of its propagation. The impact on Asia and Pacific will be the strongest followed by the Middle East and Central Asia. The impact on sub-Saharan Africa would be noticeable only for some countries. Spillovers on Europe, including the Euro area, will be moderate, and spillovers on the Western Hemisphere, including the United States, would be very marginal. Metal and non-fuel commodity exporters may experience the largest negative impact.