Bernoullis Fallacy

Author : Aubrey Clayton
Publisher : Columbia University Press
ISBN 13 : 0231553358
Total Pages : 641 pages
Book Rating : 4.53/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Bernoulli's Fallacy written by Aubrey Clayton and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2021-08-03 with total page 641 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is a logical flaw in the statistical methods used across experimental science. This fault is not a minor academic quibble: it underlies a reproducibility crisis now threatening entire disciplines. In an increasingly statistics-reliant society, this same deeply rooted error shapes decisions in medicine, law, and public policy with profound consequences. The foundation of the problem is a misunderstanding of probability and its role in making inferences from observations. Aubrey Clayton traces the history of how statistics went astray, beginning with the groundbreaking work of the seventeenth-century mathematician Jacob Bernoulli and winding through gambling, astronomy, and genetics. Clayton recounts the feuds among rival schools of statistics, exploring the surprisingly human problems that gave rise to the discipline and the all-too-human shortcomings that derailed it. He highlights how influential nineteenth- and twentieth-century figures developed a statistical methodology they claimed was purely objective in order to silence critics of their political agendas, including eugenics. Clayton provides a clear account of the mathematics and logic of probability, conveying complex concepts accessibly for readers interested in the statistical methods that frame our understanding of the world. He contends that we need to take a Bayesian approach—that is, to incorporate prior knowledge when reasoning with incomplete information—in order to resolve the crisis. Ranging across math, philosophy, and culture, Bernoulli’s Fallacy explains why something has gone wrong with how we use data—and how to fix it.

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780231199957
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.53/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Bernoulli's Fallacy written by and published by . This book was released on 2022-09-20 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Author : Aubrey Clayton
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780231199940
Total Pages : 368 pages
Book Rating : 4.45/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Bernoulli's Fallacy written by Aubrey Clayton and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Aubrey Clayton traces the history of the flaw that underlies modern statistics, beginning with the seventeenth-century mathematician Jacob Bernoulli and winding through gambling, astronomy, and genetics. Ranging across math, philosophy, and culture, Bernoulli's Fallacy explains why something has gone wrong with how we use data--and how to fix it.

Author : Nikolai Dokuchaev
Publisher : World Scientific Publishing Company
ISBN 13 : 9814678058
Total Pages : 224 pages
Book Rating : 4.56/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Probability Theory written by Nikolai Dokuchaev and published by World Scientific Publishing Company. This book was released on 2015-06-12 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a systematic, self-sufficient and yet short presentation of the mainstream topics on introductory Probability Theory with some selected topics from Mathematical Statistics. It is suitable for a 10- to 14-week course for second- or third-year undergraduate students in Science, Mathematics, Statistics, Finance, or Economics, who have completed some introductory course in Calculus. There is a sufficient number of problems and solutions to cover weekly tutorials.

Author : Tukufu Zuberi
Publisher : U of Minnesota Press
ISBN 13 : 9780816639090
Total Pages : 224 pages
Book Rating : 4.94/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Thicker Than Blood written by Tukufu Zuberi and published by U of Minnesota Press. This book was released on 2001 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tukufu Zuberi offers a concise account of the historical connections between the development of the idea of race and the birth of social statistics. Zuberi describes the ways race-differentiated data is misinterpreted in the social sciences and asks searching questions about the ways racial statistics are used. He argues that statistical analysis can and must be deracialized, and that this deracialization is essential to the goal of achieving social justice for all.

Author : Valerie Gray Hardcastle
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 9780262582100
Total Pages : 328 pages
Book Rating : 4.04/5 ( download)

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Download or read book The Myth of Pain written by Valerie Gray Hardcastle and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1999 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Valerie Gray Hardcastle argues that both professional and lay definitions of pain are wrongheaded -- with consequences for how pain and pain patients are treated, how psychological disorders are understood, and how clinicians define the mind/body relationship. Pain, although very common, is little understood. Worse still, according to Valerie Gray Hardcastle, both professional and lay definitions of pain are wrongheaded -- with consequences for how pain and pain patients are treated, how psychological disorders are understood, and how clinicians define the mind/body relationship. Hardcastle offers a biologically based complex theory of pain processing, inhibition, and sensation and then uses this theory to make several arguments: (1) psychogenic pains do not exist; (2) a general lack of knowledge about fundamental brain function prevents us from distinguishing between mental and physical causes, although the distinction remains useful; (3) most pain talk should be eliminated from both the folk and academic communities; and (4) such a biological approach is useful generally for explaining disorders in pain processing. She shows how her analysis of pain can serve as a model for the analysis of other psychological disorders and suggests that her project be taken as a model for the philosophical analysis of disorders in psychology, psychiatry, and neuroscience.

Author : Harold Jeffreys
Publisher : OUP Oxford
ISBN 13 : 0191589675
Total Pages : 474 pages
Book Rating : 4.76/5 ( download)

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Download or read book The Theory of Probability written by Harold Jeffreys and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 1998-08-06 with total page 474 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Another title in the reissued Oxford Classic Texts in the Physical Sciences series, Jeffrey's Theory of Probability, first published in 1939, was the first to develop a fundamental theory of scientific inference based on the ideas of Bayesian statistics. His ideas were way ahead of their time and it is only in the past ten years that the subject of Bayes' factors has been significantly developed and extended. Until recently the two schools of statistics (Bayesian and Frequentist) were distinctly different and set apart. Recent work (aided by increased computer power and availability) has changed all that and today's graduate students and researchers all require an understanding of Bayesian ideas. This book is their starting point.

Author : David Sumpter
Publisher : Flatiron Books
ISBN 13 : 1250246970
Total Pages : 336 pages
Book Rating : 4.74/5 ( download)

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Download or read book The Ten Equations That Rule the World written by David Sumpter and published by Flatiron Books. This book was released on 2021-08-24 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is there a secret formula for getting rich? For going viral? For deciding how long to stick with your current job, Netflix series, or even relationship? This book is all about the equations that make our world go round. Ten of them, in fact. They are integral to everything from investment banking to betting companies and social media giants. And they can help you to increase your chance of success, guard against financial loss, live more healthfully, and see through scaremongering. They are known by only the privileged few - until now. With wit and clarity, mathematician David Sumpter shows that it isn't the technical details that make these formulas so successful. It is the way they allow mathematicians to view problems from a different angle - a way of seeing the world that anyone can learn. Empowering and illuminating, The Ten Equations shows how math really can change your life.

Author : Yair Listokin
Publisher : Harvard University Press
ISBN 13 : 0674976053
Total Pages : 281 pages
Book Rating : 4.54/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Law and Macroeconomics written by Yair Listokin and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 2019-03-11 with total page 281 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After 2008, private-sector spending took a decade to recover. Yair Listokin thinks we can respond more quickly to the next meltdown by reviving and refashioning a policy approach, used in the New Deal, to harness law’s ability to function as a macroeconomic tool, stimulating or relieving demand as required under certain crisis conditions.

Author : Michael Friendly
Publisher : Harvard University Press
ISBN 13 : 0674259041
Total Pages : 337 pages
Book Rating : 4.41/5 ( download)

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Download or read book A History of Data Visualization and Graphic Communication written by Michael Friendly and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 2021-06-08 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive history of data visualization—its origins, rise, and effects on the ways we think about and solve problems. With complex information everywhere, graphics have become indispensable to our daily lives. Navigation apps show real-time, interactive traffic data. A color-coded map of exit polls details election balloting down to the county level. Charts communicate stock market trends, government spending, and the dangers of epidemics. A History of Data Visualization and Graphic Communication tells the story of how graphics left the exclusive confines of scientific research and became ubiquitous. As data visualization spread, it changed the way we think. Michael Friendly and Howard Wainer take us back to the beginnings of graphic communication in the mid-seventeenth century, when the Dutch cartographer Michael Florent van Langren created the first chart of statistical data, which showed estimates of the distance from Rome to Toledo. By 1786 William Playfair had invented the line graph and bar chart to explain trade imports and exports. In the nineteenth century, the “golden age” of data display, graphics found new uses in tracking disease outbreaks and understanding social issues. Friendly and Wainer make the case that the explosion in graphical communication both reinforced and was advanced by a cognitive revolution: visual thinking. Across disciplines, people realized that information could be conveyed more effectively by visual displays than by words or tables of numbers. Through stories and illustrations, A History of Data Visualization and Graphic Communication details the 400-year evolution of an intellectual framework that has become essential to both science and society at large.