Approaches to Macrofinancial Surveillance in Article IV Reports

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498347037
Total Pages : 44 pages
Book Rating : 4.37/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Approaches to Macrofinancial Surveillance in Article IV Reports by : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department

Download or read book Approaches to Macrofinancial Surveillance in Article IV Reports written by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-03-28 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Fund has made good progress over the past two years in integrating macrofinancial analysis into Article IV surveillance for a wide range of members. Building on past work to enhance financial sector analysis, Fund staff has sought to develop a consistent and forward-looking view on how the financial sector affects each member’s economic outlook with the aim of strengthening staff’s capacity to provide advice on macro-critical questions. The focus has been on developing a fuller understanding of macrofinancial linkages, and applying this analysis to inform policy advice. Staff has sought to articulate the role of the financial sector in the macroeconomic baseline, and to integrate the financial sector into the risk assessment, taking into account both the impact of macro shocks on the financial sector as well as the effect of financial shocks on macroeconomic stability. Strengthening the analytical foundations of this work has helped staff provide advice in all policy areas, including financial sector policies. Staff has tailored macrofinancial analysis to the circumstances of a diverse set of economies. Area departments have taken the lead in selecting 66 economies for enhanced macrofinancial coverage and in identifying topics, drawing on targeted support from functional departments. The choice of coverage has included legacies from the global financial crisis—such as deleveraging and stretched balance sheets in advanced economies and some emerging markets—and more recent challenges such as commodity price shocks, especially in low income countries, and the risks of housing booms. The financial sector’s contribution to growth and inclusion has become an important question in countries across all income groups. Staff sees benefits in mainstreaming this approach across the membership, while continuing to address analytical gaps and adapting to new challenges. The work of the past two years has underscored the criticality of macrofinancial analysis for a diverse range of members, and laid the basis for progressively mainstreaming macrofinancial surveillance across the membership. Building on this progress, staff sees scope for the Fund to deepen its understanding of the macroeconomic effects of financial shocks, to better adapt microprudential and macroprudential policy advice with an assessment of macro-critical risks including systemic risk, and to deepen the analysis of outward spillovers. Staff will also need to continue to adapt the focus of analysis and tools, and seek relevant data, as economic challenges evolve.

Guidance Note for Surveillance Under Article IV Consultations

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 75 pages
Book Rating : 4.22/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Guidance Note for Surveillance Under Article IV Consultations by : International Monetary

Download or read book Guidance Note for Surveillance Under Article IV Consultations written by International Monetary and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-06-23 with total page 75 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Guidance Note provides guidance to country teams for surveillance under Article IV consultations. It supersedes the 2015 Guidance Note and its supplement. Fund surveillance continuously adapts to the evolving economic and financial landscape. The 2021 Comprehensive Surveillance Review (CSR) identified priorities for Fund surveillance, both in terms of content and modalities. This Guidance Note covers: Scope and requirements: The note lays out the coverage of, and formal requirements for, Article IV consultations and staff reports. It also outlines best practices aimed at enhancing the traction of Fund analysis and policy advice. Priorities and focus. The note reflects the four surveillance priorities identified in the CSR: (i) confronting risks and uncertainties, (ii) preempting and mitigating spillovers, (iii) ensuring economic sustainability, and (iv) adopting a more unified approach to policy advice. The note also provides guidance on sharpening the focus and selectivity of Article IV staff reports. Policies. The note discusses the content of surveillance in the areas of fiscal policy, macrofinancial analysis and financial policies, monetary policy, external sector policies, and macrostructural policies. Applications. The note considers several applications of such policies, such as with respect to the Integrated Policy Framework, climate change, and gender. Process and procedures. The note describes the Article IV consultation cycle and process, lays out drafting and publication guidelines for staff reports, and covers the treatment of confidential information.

2021 Comprehensive Surveillance Review— Background Paper on Systemic Risk and Macroprudential Policy Advice in Article IV Consultations

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513582712
Total Pages : 33 pages
Book Rating : 4.19/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis 2021 Comprehensive Surveillance Review— Background Paper on Systemic Risk and Macroprudential Policy Advice in Article IV Consultations by : International Monetary

Download or read book 2021 Comprehensive Surveillance Review— Background Paper on Systemic Risk and Macroprudential Policy Advice in Article IV Consultations written by International Monetary and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-05-18 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses progress made in deepening and integrating systemic risk analysis and macroprudential policy advice in Article IV consultations following up on the findings of the IEO evaluation. The assessment informs the Comprehensive Surveillance Review and the FSAP Review in their recommendations to strengthen these areas in Article IV consultations. The findings point to notable improvements made since the launch of the macrofinancial mainstreaming initiative, particularly in staff reports for advanced economies and in covering bank and credit-related risks.

Growth at Risk: Concept and Application in IMF Country Surveillance

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484397010
Total Pages : 39 pages
Book Rating : 4.15/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Growth at Risk: Concept and Application in IMF Country Surveillance by : Mr.Ananthakrishnan Prasad

Download or read book Growth at Risk: Concept and Application in IMF Country Surveillance written by Mr.Ananthakrishnan Prasad and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-02-21 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The growth-at-risk (GaR) framework links current macrofinancial conditions to the distribution of future growth. Its main strength is its ability to assess the entire distribution of future GDP growth (in contrast to point forecasts), quantify macrofinancial risks in terms of growth, and monitor the evolution of risks to economic activity over time. By using GaR analysis, policymakers can quantify the likelihood of risk scenarios, which would serve as a basis for preemptive action. This paper offers practical guidance on how to conduct GaR analysis and draws lessons from country case studies. It also discusses an Excel-based GaR tool developed to support the IMF’s bilateral surveillance efforts.

Macro-Financial Linkages in Shallow Markets

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484361490
Total Pages : 53 pages
Book Rating : 4.98/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Macro-Financial Linkages in Shallow Markets by : International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Download or read book Macro-Financial Linkages in Shallow Markets written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-23 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses and disseminates experiences and lessons from low-income countries (LICs) in Sub-Saharan Africa that were selected by the Africa Department in 2015-16 as pilots for enhanced analysis of macro-financial linkages in Article IV staff reports. The paper focuses on the common characteristics across the pilot countries and highlights the tools used in the analysis, the challenges encountered, and the solutions deployed in overcoming them.

High Level Status Report to the IEO Evaluation of Fund's Recurring Issues

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498347045
Total Pages : 21 pages
Book Rating : 4.44/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis High Level Status Report to the IEO Evaluation of Fund's Recurring Issues by : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department

Download or read book High Level Status Report to the IEO Evaluation of Fund's Recurring Issues written by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-03-27 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is a high-level report on progress in addressing recurring issues identified by the Independent Evaluation Office (IEO). The Board endorsed the proposal in the Chairman’s Summing Up for the Independent Evaluation Office Report on Recurring Issues from a Decade of Evaluation – Lessons for the IMF (BUFF/14/58, 6/11/14) that staff prepare a separate high-level report on the status of initiatives that address the recurring issues identified by the IEO, noting that the first staff report could be prepared within two years, followed by similar reports every five years thereafter. The September 2015 Management Implementation Plan set out the actions management would take to follow-up on the Board-endorsed recommendation. The IEO’s 2014 evaluation of Recurring Issues from a Decade of Evaluation: Lessons for the IMF identified five recurring issues: a) Executive Board guidance and oversight; b) Organizational silos; c) Attention to risks and uncertainty; d) Country and institutional context; and e) Evenhandedness. This high-level report provides a broad account of actions taken to address these recurring issues since the publication of the 2014 IEO report; it is not intended as an exhaustive account of initiatives undertaken. Takeaways. The report concludes that the Fund has made progress in addressing the recurring issues identified by the IEO, and acknowledges the need for taking actions on an ongoing basis to achieve the related objectives. The discussion of the Management Implementation Plan (MIP) left open the question of whether subsequent reports should be prepared, perhaps every five years. The Evaluation Committee concluded that the forthcoming external evaluation of the IEO could look at the monitoring mechanisms more holistically, to provide further input into considering whether or not to continue the preparation every five years of this high-level report.

The Gambia

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484350340
Total Pages : 40 pages
Book Rating : 4.48/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis The Gambia by : International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Download or read book The Gambia written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-04-04 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues paper assesses the macrofinancial linkages in The Gambia. Significant macrofinancial linkages persist in The Gambia, first and foremost between the public sector and the banks. Banks are highly exposed to the government through large holdings of short-term government debt, which is a legacy of the large financing needs of the previous administration. In addition, large claims have built up between government and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) on the one hand, and banks and the corporate sector including SOEs on the other. There has been persistent financial distress within the SOE cluster. Weak SOE performance has also led to arrears both to central government and within the SOE cluster.

Stress Testing in Sub-Saharan Africa

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 151353291X
Total Pages : 58 pages
Book Rating : 4.12/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Stress Testing in Sub-Saharan Africa by : Mindaugas Leika

Download or read book Stress Testing in Sub-Saharan Africa written by Mindaugas Leika and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-11 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper finds that supervisory stress tests are conducted in more than half of sub-Saharan African countries, particularly in western and southern Africa, and that the number of individual stress tests has grown exponentially since the early 2010s. By contrast, few central banks publish assessments of macro-financial linkages; the focus leans more toward discussing trends and weaknesses within the financial sector than on outside risks that may negatively affect its performance.

Review of Data Provision to the Fund for Surveillance Purposes

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 129 pages
Book Rating : 4.07/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Review of Data Provision to the Fund for Surveillance Purposes by : International Monetary Fund

Download or read book Review of Data Provision to the Fund for Surveillance Purposes written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-04-12 with total page 129 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Data provision by member countries is a key input into the IMF’s surveillance activities. The 2024 Review of Data Provision to the Fund for Surveillance Purposes took place against the backdrop of profound shifts in the global economy, highlighting the important need for adequate macroeconomic and financial data to inform analysis and policymaking. This Review achieved a substantial, but manageable, update to the overall envelope of data that members are required to provide to the Fund in the areas of public sector, foreign exchange intervention, and macrofinancial indicators. Addressing these data gaps will reduce blind spots and support even-handedness in Fund surveillance. The Review also introduced a more structured and transparent assessment of data adequacy for surveillance. This strengthened framework will facilitate policy dialogue with the authorities on data issues and improve prioritization of capacity development efforts. Finally, the Review confirmed the long-standing practice of not applying the remedial framework when members do not provide certain data categories that the Fund considers outdated.

Kingdom of Lesotho

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484344952
Total Pages : 13 pages
Book Rating : 4.58/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Kingdom of Lesotho by : International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Download or read book Kingdom of Lesotho written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-03-05 with total page 13 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues paper provides further background on the macrofinancial sector analysis that informed Lesotho’s 2017 Article IV consultation. Lesotho’s financial sector is small, concentrated, and lacks financial inclusion, although mobile banking services and financial cooperatives offer some encouraging potential. Lesotho’s most important vulnerabilities are exposure to developments in South Africa and dependence on revenues from the Southern African Customs Union (SACU). Shocks to SACU revenues can become a source of systemic risk by affecting the fiscal position and the balance of payments. The financial system will be affected by both channels, with substantial implications if the shock is permanent. This paper focuses on two potential consequences of a severe SACU revenue shock for the financial system: A decline in reserves that may threaten the sustainability of the hard currency peg with the South African rand, and the impact of a forced fiscal consolidation on household income and the quality of credit to households, affecting both bank and nonbank lenders. It turns out that financial shallowness and lack of inclusion may be a defining feature of the formal banking system; thereby raising questions about potential trade-offs between inclusiveness and financial stability.